Job Creation Report Q3 2015



Sunday, November 22, 2015 5:23 PM / NBS

This Summary Table contains the latest estimates for jobs created in the Nigerian economy for the Third Quarter of 2015. These estimates are the results of the Quarterly Job Creation Survey commissioned by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) since 2012 in collaboration with the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser to the President and the Federal Ministry of Labour & Productivity. The objective of the quarterly survey is to track the number of jobs being created in the economy within a given period of time, provide multi-sectoral and policy relevant data on the employment-generating sectors, seasonality in employment and the labour market.The findings are categorized into Formal sector jobs, Informal sector and Public sector jobs.

Formal jobs refer to employment generated in establishments that employ 10 persons and above, or formal professional services properly recognized, registered and integrated formally into economic activities and that employ less than 10 persons. The Informal jobs are those generated by individuals not officially or formally recognized in the system or businesses employing less than 10 or those businesses operating with little or no structures e.g. those in rural and subsistence Agriculture, Light Manufacturing, Wholesale and Retail Trade, and personal services like those of barbers and hairdressers mechanics, repair of electronics, and other household goods, plumbers etc. While The Public Institutions are the Government Ministries, Departments, Agencies (MDAs), Government Parastatals, Academic and Research Institutions at Federal, State and Local government levels.

The Quarterly Job Creation survey is a nationwide survey, covering all 36 states of the federation including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). For the formal sector, a representative sample of 5000 establishments was taken across the country across all economic activities. This round of the survey, for which estimates are being reported, achieved a response rate of 91.3 percent from the establishments selected in the sample, which is sufficient enough and commendable. The following selected tables are the key findings from the surveys, a detailed report of the survey results will be published subsequently.


Findings of the 3rd Quarter Survey
In the third quarter of 2015, the Total number of jobs recorded in the economy was 475,180 jobs, this is a significant increase of 236.1 percent (333,812) when compared with the previous quarter and 36 percent (125,837) when compared to the third quarter of 2014. The increase in the number of jobs in the third quarter was driven mainly by informal sector jobs, which accounted for 90.2 percent (428,690) of total jobs. It was followed by formal sector jobs, which accounted for 8.8 percent (41,672) of jobs in the third quarter, while the public sector generated 4,818 jobs, representing 1.01 percent of jobs in the quarter under review.

Under informal sector, which typically consist of jobs in individual or household businesses employing less than 10 and operating with little or no structures e.g. those in Agriculture, Light Manufacturing and Trade etc, the jobs generated in the informal sector in Q3 2015 (accounting for over 90 percent of total jobs in Q3 2015), were predominantly in rural agricultural activities. Over 70 percent of the informal sector jobs created in Q3 2015 were related to rural agriculture due to the beginning of the farming season where rural and subsistence farmers become fully engaged on their farms.

The third quarter of the year in coincides with the planting season in Nigeria and has historically recorded higher job numbers when compared to other quarters, as farmers employ more hands to assist on the farms. Also accounting for the increase in informal jobs in the third quarter, is the increase in the number of people previously not in labour force in the second quarter but now in the labour force and working informal jobs due to their inability to find white collar formal jobs.

The survey showed more people who were not willing or available for work in the second quarter, for example house wives or graduates waiting for service, or who were holding out for white collar and better paying and suitable formal jobs (but couldn’t find) are now working informal jobs in trade, catering services, tailoring and the likes to make a livelihood in the absence of other social safety nets and more preferable declining formal jobs.

Employment generation in the Formal sector recorded an 18.4 percent (9,398) decline in the third quarter when compared to the second quarter of 2015 continuing the steady drop in employment generation since Q3 2014. Employment generation which stood at 145,464 jobs in Q2 2014 dropped to 138,026 in Q4 2014, 138,026 in Q4 2014, 130,941 in Q1 2015, 51,070 in Q2 2015 and now 41,672 in 2015. It is this continuous drop in the availability of typically better paying white collar formal jobs that has led to sharp rise in typically less paying, often menial jobs as graduates especially and other entrants into the labour force look for some form of livelihood in informal activities. Informal sector jobs has swelled continuously at the same time formal sector jobs have declined (except for Q2 2015 following end of elections) from 112,576 jobs in Q2 2012 to 198,144 in Q3 2014, 227,072 in Q4 2014, 332,402 in Q1 2015, and now 428,690 in Q3 2015. We expect this trend to continue in Q4 as businesses announce more restructuring of their staff and as the festive season in Q4 encourages more informal sector activity in the presence of strong growth in the labour force (people willing able and actively searching for work). The rise in informal sector jobs is visible in GDP especially in Q3 2015 where other services which are largely activities of informal sector operatives was one of the fastest growing segments at 16% year on year.

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