Inflation rises to 8.7% in April'15; the 5th consecutive month of a faster increase

Proshare

May 14, 2015 / 10.27am /National Bureau of Statistics

ALL ITEM INDEX

In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation rose by 8.7 percent (year-on-year), 0.2 percentage points from the 8.5 percent rate recorded in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of a faster increase in the Headline index to reach the highest inflation rate recorded for the year. The Headline rate for April also equals the highest rate recorded since July 2013.

The faster pace of the Headline index was as a result of increases in most COICOP Divisions which contribute to the headline index, with the exception of slower increases in Recreation and Culture, and Communications Divisions. The faster paces of increases were also observed in the Food and Core sub-indices.

Food prices as observed by the Food Sub-index increased at a marginally faster pace in April. The Food Sub-index rose by 9.5 percent, up from 9.4 percent in March as a result of increases in most of the groups that yield the index. The pace of increases was weighted upon by a slower increase in the Meats, Fish, and Dairy groups.

The pace of advances recorded by the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index increased for the Fourth consecutive month in April. The Core Sub-index increased by 7.7 percent (year-on-year), 0.2 percentage points from 7.5 percent recorded in March. Prices increased at a faster pace in most divisions that contribute to the Core sub-index except for the Communications, and Recreational and Culture Divisions which increased at a slower pace.

It should be noted that the Headline Index is made up of the Core Index and Farm Produce items. As Processed Foods are included in both the Core and Food sub-indices, this implies that these sub-indices are not mutually-exclusive.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index eased marginally in April, increasing by 0.8 percent; lower from 0.9 percent in March. Prices increased at a slower pace across most COICOP divisions, with the exception of the Transport and Communications Divisions which increased at a slower pace. Year-on-year, both the Urban and Rural Price Indices recorded marginally higher increases in April.

The Urban index increased by 8.7 percent, from 8.6 percent in March, while the Rural index increased by 8.6 percent, 0.2 percentage points higher than 8.4 percent in March. On a month-on-month basis, both the Urban and Rural indices increased at a slower pace in April, increasing by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent respectively.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in April over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 8.2 percent, unchanged from rates recorded in March. The corresponding 12-month year-on-year average percentage change for the Urban and Rural indices held at the same pace as in March at 8.3 percent and 8.1 percent respectively.

FOOD INDEX

In April, the pace of price increases recorded by the Food sub-index (year-on-year) increased marginally. Prices rose by 9.5 percent, marginally higher from 9.4 percent recorded in March.

On a month-on-month basis, food prices slowed in April relative to March. Food prices increased by 0.9 percent, from 1.0 percent. Prices slowed in most groups that contributed to the Food index with the exception being the Oils and Fats groups which increased at a faster pace.

On a month-on-month basis, the highest price increases were recorded in the, Potatoes, Yam & Other Tubers, Oils and Fats and Bread and Cereals groups. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in April 2015 over the previous twelve month average was 9.5 percent. The twelve month rate of change has held steady for eleven consecutive months.

ALL ITEMS LESS FARM PRODUCE

The pace of increases in the “All items less Farm Produce” or Core index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce increased at a faster pace for the fourth consecutive month. Prices rose by 7.7 percent (year-on-year), up by 0.2 percentage points from 7.5 percent in March with the strongest increases recorded in the Clothing and Footwear, Furnishings and Household Equipment Maintenance; and Restaurants and Hotels Divisions.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core Sub-index slowed, increasing by 0.6 percent. This was 0.2 percentage points lower from 0.8 percent recorded in March. The largest increases were recorded in the Fuels and Lubricants for Personal Transport Equipment, Liquid Fuels, and Passenger Transport by Road groups amongst others. The average 12 month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 6.9 percent for the twelve-month period ending in April 2015, unchanged from the 12 month rate recorded in December.

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