Nigeria Economy | |
Nigeria Economy | |
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Tuesday, January 29, 2019
08.00AM / Ottoabasi Abasiekong and Bukola Akinyele for Proshare WebTV
Nigerian
policy makers should give priority to inclusive growth, as the nation
experiences an economic recovery cycle.
Dr Olusegun
Omisakin, Head of Research of The Nigeria Economic Summit Group disclosed this
at the 3rd edition of the Group’s macro-economic outlook report in
Lagos.
Addressing
the theme “Steering Nigeria through the inclusive growth pathway: What Strategy
Should the Government Adopt?” the 2019 macro-economic outlook report, is an
annual publication of NESG that reviews the Nigerian economy and provides
policy options.
Omisakin
noted that, “There is a need for broad-based
growth where more sectors are inclusive and the social welfare of the people
are prioritised”
He further
stated that the basic idea of
growth globally is not just to assume or to achieve high growth, there is need
to ask fundamental questions on what type of growth is required? Who are
supposed to be the beneficiaries of this growth and the growth outlook?
In driving inclusive growth the NESG economist urged the federal government to carry out reforms in the following areas;
Reviewing how Nigeria’s
economy fared in 2018, Omisakin noted that the Federal Government capital spending suffered setbacks as a result of the delay in budget approval. Only
28.6% of budgeted capital expenditure (N820.6 billion) was released as at
December 2018.
He buttressed the fact
that the challenges with the execution of the fiscal framework
are not only traceable to weak revenue mobilisation, but also to institutional
weakness.
Speaking on
the 2019 Nigerian macro economic outlook the NESG Head of Research said the outcome of the general elections will likely shape
Investment policies, debt management, public sector spending, security and
governance reforms.
He identified Six (6) policies and events that will shape 2019, which include;
Dr Omisakin also
outlined three scenarios to watch in 2019 in the Nigerian economy.
Scenario
1: Best Case |
Scenario
2: Business as Usual |
Scenario
3: Worst Case |
Crude
Oil Averages $75 per barrel |
Crude
oil price averages $60 per barrel |
Crude
oil price averages US$45 per barrel |
Crude
Oil production averages 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) |
Crude
oil production averages 1.7million barrels per day(mbpd) |
Crude
oil production averages 1.4 million barrels per day |
Capital
Expenditure at N1.4trillion |
Capital
Expenditure at N1.2trillion |
Capital
Expenditure at N700 billion |
Real GDP
grows by 3.2% |
Real
GDP grows by 2.1% |
Real GDP
grows by -1.1% |
Inflation
rate moderates at 9.8% |
Inflation
rate moderates at 10.5% |
Inflation
rate increases to 14% |
Government
revenue increases by 20% |
Government
revenue increases slightly by 5% |
Government
revenue declines by 16% |
Official
exchange rate stabilises at N302/US$1 |
Official
exchange rate stabilises at N310/US$1 |
Official
exchange rate worsens at $350/US$1 |
Parallel
exchange rate at N360/US$1 |
Parallel
exchange rate at N360/US$1 |
Parallel
exchange rate at N400/US$1 |
Unemployment
rate at 21.5% |
Unemployment
at 22% |
Unemployment
rate at 24% |
Underemployment
rate at 20% |
Underemployment
at 23% |
Underemployment
rate at 24% |
Source: NESG
Dr Doyin
Salami, Head Board Committee on Research, NESG, noted that Nigeria was
currently at the level of China 40 years ago, an oasis of thriving poverty.
He made a
strong case for an enabling business environment that attracts private capital
into the economy, which will be critically address the infrastructure deficit
in the country.
The Lagos
Business School economics lecturer said that Nigeria’s 2019 macroeconomic
outlook hinges on three factors namely; The elections, Oil prices and Oil
quantity (production).
Chairman of the NESG Board Mr Asue Ighodalo in his remarks said it was time for the government and policy makers to pay attention to the economic outlook report.
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