Headline price index eases for the third straight month to 7.9% in November 2014

Proshare

Wednesday, December 17, 2014 12:00 PM / GTI Research


The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics on Monday, the 15th of December, 2014 released the November’s Consumer Price Index (Inflation) into the system. The report showed that the headline price index eased for the third straight month to 7.9% in November 2014, 20 basis points lower than 8.1% in the previous month. It was essentially moderated by lower food index prices within the period.

 

After peaking in August this year at 10.0% (year-on-year), the food index has continued to moderate. The Food index dropped to 9.1% (year-on-year) in November, down also by 20 basis points from 9.3% recorded in October. Following the same trend observed in the Headline index, this is the third consecutive month where food index prices have been relatively muted.

 

Though, the majority of groups that contribute to the food item’s indicator declined, price increases were observed relatively for vegetables, coffee, tea, cocoa and meat.

 

The 12-month average CPI index revealed a stable growth of 8.0% compared to October’s figure. This is the seventh consecutive month that the figure has stayed at 8.0%, back dated to May. Note that the 12-month average movement shows the level of price differential when compared with the price trend 12-month ago.

 

We noticed that the arrival of harvest season has continued to bring consumers a respite from higher food prices after food prices peaked in August.

 

Again, year-on-year, the pace of increase of both Urban and Rural price indicators eased for the third consecutive month in November. The Urban Composite CPI dropped to 7.9%, down by 20 basis points from October figure. Though, the Rural Composite CPI eased marginally to 7.9% in November but only gained 10 basis points against previous record.

Going by the latest figure, the CPI now maintains the twenty-third consecutive time trend at a single digit zone. This is dated back to December 2012 when the figure last stood at 12.0%.

  

CPI measures the average change over time in price level of a market basket of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living. 



Going by the latest figure, the CPI now maintains the twenty-third consecutive time trend at a single digit zone. This is dated back to December 2012 when the figure last stood at 12.0%.

 

DECEMBER 2014 OUTLOOK
At current development, we are optimistic that the last month of the year (December) will close within the range of 7.9% and 8.1%. This projection is on the basis of expected fall out of price shocks associated to yuletide season andgrowing political expenditure. Ultimately, the goal of policy makers to rein the economy within the single digit inflation thresholdwould have been achieved.



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