Headline index increased by 9.4% (y-on-y) in Nov'15, marginally higher than 9.3% in Oct'15


Sunday, December 13, 2015 9:06 PM / NBS

After a brief respite in October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation inched higher in November. The Headline index increased by 9.4% (year-on-year), marginally higher from the rate recorded in October (9.3%). The index was driven in part by higher prices within the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division as well as increases in the Transportation division as a result of shortages in Premium Motor Sprit (PMS) coupled with the knock-on effect impacting transportation of people and goods across the country.

Food prices as measured by the Food sub-index also increased at higher pace in November. The Food subindex increased to 10.3% (year-onyear) during the month, 0.2% points from rates recorded in October. All major food groups which contribute to the Food sub-index increased at a faster pace during the month with the exception of the Fruits group which has been trending lower since June of this year.

Increases in the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index rose at the same rate for the second consecutive month at 8.7%, as rates have slowed or held steady for a quarter. The Core sub-index was weighted upon by slower increases in multiple divisions such as Clothing and Footwear; Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels; and Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance amongst others.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline Index as well as the Food and Core sub-indices all increased at a faster pace in November. The Headline Index in particular increased by 0.7%, 0.3% points higher from 0.4% in October.It should be noted that the Headline Index is made up of the Core Index and Farm Produce items. As. Processed Foods are included in both the Core and Food sub-indices, this implies that these sub-indices are not mutually-exclusive.



All Items = Farm Produce +Core index

Food = Farm Produce +Processed Foods

Core = All Items – Farm Produce

All indices which contribute to the Headline index increased at a faster pace (month-on-month) in November with the exception being the Education division.

In November, the Urban index grew at the same pace as recorded in October; at 9.4% (year-on-year). The Rural index also edged higher from 9.2% in October to 9.3% in November.

On a month-on-month basis, both the Urban and Rural indices increased at the same pace, both increasing at 0.7% in November, 0.3% points from 0.4% in October.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelvemonth period ending in November over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 8.9%, marginally higher from 8.8% recorded in October. The corresponding twelve-month year-onyear average percentage change for the Urban index moved in the same fashion increasing from 8.8% in October to 8.9% in November, while the corresponding Rural index also edged higher to 8.8% in November from 8.7% in October.

Food prices as observed by the Food Sub-index increased to the highest rate recorded this year. Prices increased by 10.3% (year-on-year) in November, 0.2% points higher from rates recorded in October. The index was pushed higher as a result of faster increases in the Fish, Bread and Cereals; Vegetable and Meat groups. On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.8% from October, after a relative moderation in rates for the previous three months.

All groups which contribute to the Food Sub-index increased at a higher pace, with the highest rises recorded in the Bread and Cereals, Oils and Fats, Vegetables; and Milk, Cheese and Eggs groups. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in November 2015 over the previous twelve month average was 9.8%. This was marginally higher than the average annual rate of change recorded in October at 9.7%.

The pace of increases recorded by the “All items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce increased at the same pace for the second consecutive month, increasing by 8.7% in November. While most divisions that contribute to the Sub-index slowed, the index was supported by increases in the Transportation, Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco and Kola; and Recreation and Culture Divsions. On a month-onmonth basis, the Core Sub-index increased at a faster pace, increasing by 0.6%. This was 0.2% points higher from rates recorded in October. In November, the highest price increases were recorded in Liquid Fuel (kerosene), Fuels and Lubricants for Personal Transport (PMS) due to shortages, Spare Parts as a result of replacement costs, and passenger transport groups. The average twelve month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 8.0% for the twelvemonth period ending in November 2015, 0.2% points higher from the twelve month rate of change recorded in October.

Kindly download the NBS CPI/Inflation Report for November 2015 Here


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