FSDH Research Forecasts a GDP Growth Rate of 3.16% in 2018


Monday, January 22, 2018 /3:30 PM /FSDH 

FSDH Research forecasts a Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 3.16% in 2018 and 4.09% in 2019. Our forecast for 2018 is slightly higher than the forecast of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) of 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. However, with the population growing at 2.75%, the country requires growth rate in excess of 5% to substantially improve the wellbeing of Nigerians.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Agriculture, Trade, and Mining & Quarrying sectors, with forecast growth rates of 4%, 2% and 3.2% would drive the 3.16% growth rate in 2018. Other leading sectors of the economy that would contribute to the growth are: Information and Communication (I&C): 2.2%; Real Estate: 2.5%; Construction: 4% and Manufacturing: 1%.

Agriculture, with a growth of 3.06%; Mining and Quarrying: 25.44% and Other Services: 1.72% were the three leading sectors that contributed to the growth rate of 1.40% recorded in Q3 2017. The increase in the supply of foreign exchange has improved economic activities across other sectors of the Nigerian economy.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

FSDH Research has observed increased activities in Agriculture, Mining and Quarrying (oil and gas), manufacturing, Trade, Real Estate and I&C in the last few months. The growth in the equity market has created additional wealth that would stimulate effective demand in the economy. Some light manufacturing activities are also taking place – stimulating demand for raw materials from Agriculture. The current oil price will encourage investment activities in the oil and gas sector. Trade sector would also benefit from the increase in consumer purchasing power.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

FSDH Research notes that there are downside risks to the forecast growth. The rising social unrest in some parts of the country may affect economic activities and lead to escalating inflation rate. A significant drop in oil price may also have negative impact on the growth prospect. FSDH Research will highlight the implications of the GDP growth forecast on businesses and financial market in our next week article.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Related News

  1. NSR H1 2018 (6) – GDP Juggling optimism on a tightrope
  2. Growing Beyond Numbers: Will Nigeria’s Growth Be Inclusive in 2018 and beyond?
  3. Is Nigeria’s Recession Really Over?
  4. Q3 17 GDP: Oil Led Growth Mask Deceleration in Non-Oil
  5. Fitch Cuts Nigeria's 2017 GDP Growth Forecast to 1pct from 1.50pct
  6. Fragile Growth: A Need for Expansionary Policies
  7. Five Best Performing Sectors from Q3’17 National Accounts; Agriculture Out at the Front
  8. Another Small Step Forwards For Growth
  9. Oil Sector Keeps Economy above Water in Q3’17 GDP
  10. Nigeria’s Q3 2017 GDP: Awoyemi, Rewane Raise Concerns Over Oil Induced Growth
Related News