Current State Analysis of the Economy - Temitope Oshikoya, Former Chief Economist

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Friday, October 16, 2015 10:13AM/ By Temitope Oshikoya**

Highlights

The perfect Storm:

- The Oil Price Crash: Lower for Longer

-Growth is slowing down

- Per Capita GDP fell sharply


The Oil Price Crash: Lower for Longer

 

1.       55% Drop in Oil Price.

·         $49 per barrel of crude oil is not seen since 2009.

 

2.      8 Year Low Budget Benchmark

·         Current price is 50% of $79 level in 2013

·         Recurrent to capital ratio fell to 82% : 18%

 

3.      Morgan Stanley Projection

·         2015 – 44

·         2016 - 47-75

·         2017 – 75

·         2018 – 75 -85

 


 

 

Economic Slowdown

 

 

 

 

 

Summary: The Perfect Storm

 

Between 2014 and 2015: In $ terms, GDP Per Capita fell by 16.5% In the short-term, standard of living in a open economy is determined by:



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**Temitope Oshikoya is CEO, NEXTNOMICS & Chairman, NESG Faculty of Economics Former DG, WAMI/Chief Economist, AFC/Director, AfDB

 

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