CPI decreased to 9.3%(y-o-y) in Oct ‘15, marginally lower than 9.4% in Sept ‘15

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Sunday, November 15, 2015 3:06 PM / NBS

In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 9.3% (year-on-year). This was marginally lower from the rate recorded in September; 9.4%. The slower pace in October was as a result of lower increases in most divisions which contribute to the Headline index with the exceptions being Transport, and Recreation and Culture divisions.
 

Food prices edged lower in October. The Food sub-index increased by 10.1% during the month, from 10.2% recorded in September. The Food sub-index was weighted upon as a result of a slower increase in the Bread and Cereals; Milk, Egg and Cheese; and Potatoes, Yams and Other tuber groups, the latter which has increased at a slower pace for five consecutive months.
 

Increases in the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index eased for the second consecutive month in October. The Core sub-index increased by 8.7% in October (year-on-year), 0.2% points lower from rates recorded in September. The Core sub-index was weighted upon by slower increases in multiple divisions in particular; Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco and Kola; Clothing and Footwear; Housing Water, Electricity. Gas and Other Fuels; and Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance divisions.
 

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index slowed in October as the seasonal effects of the Muslim festive period dissipated. The index increased by 0.4%, 0.2% points lower from 0.6% in September, surpassing the lowest pace recorded this year which was recorded in September.
 

It should be noted that the Headline Index is made up of the Core Index and Farm Produce items. As. Processed Foods are included in both the Core and Food sub-indices, this implies that these sub-indices are not mutually-exclusive.
 

NB: COMPOSITION OF THE MAJOR INDEX AND SUB-INDICES

·         All Items = Farm Produce +Core index

·         Food = Farm Produce + Processed Foods

·         Core = All Items – Farm
 

All indices which contribute to the index increased at a slower pace (month-on-month) in October with the exceptions being the Transport and Communications divisions.
 

In October, both the Urban and Rural indices slowed (year-on-year). The urban index increased by 9.4% from 9.5% in September, while the Rural increased by 9.2% in October from 9.3% in September. On a month-on-month basis, both the Urban and Rural indices slowed. The Urban Index increased by 0.4% in October, from 0.7% in September, while the Rural index increased by 0.4% in October, from 0.5% in September.
 

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in October over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 8.8%, marginally higher from the 8.7% rate recorded in September. The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the Urban index increased marginally from 8.7% in September to 8.8% in October, while the corresponding Rural index also edged higher to 8.7% in October from 8.6% in September.
 

Food prices as observed by the Food Sub-index increased by 10.1% in October, marginally lower from 10.2% in September with higher pressures observed in the Meat, Fish, Oils and Fats, Fruits and Vegetable groups. Prices were however weighed upon by slower increases in the Bread and Cereals; Milk, Egg and Cheese; and Potatoes, Yams and Other tuber groups. On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index eased to the lowest rate recorded since October 2014, at 0.5%.
 

Prices slowed in the Bread and Cereal; Meat, Fish; Milk, Cheese and Eggs; Oils and Fats and Fruit groups. Prices increased in the vegetables groups as a result of heavy rains. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in October 2015 over the previous twelve month average was 9.7%. This was marginally higher than the average annual rate of change recorded in September at 9.6%.
 

 

ALL ITEMS LESS FARM PRODUCE

The pace of increases recorded by the “All items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce eased for the second consecutive month in October. Prices increased by 8.7%, 0.2% points lower from rates recorded in September. On a month-on-month basis, the Core Sub-index increased at a slower pace, by 0.4% bucking the trend recorded over the previous 3-month period when it grew at 0.6% monthly.
 

In October, the largest increases were recorded in the Books & Stationeries, Motor cars, Liquid Fuel (kerosene), and Garments groups. The average twelve month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 7.8% for the twelve-month period ending in October 2015, 0.2% points higher from the twelve month rate or change recorded in September.
 

Kindly download the NBS CPI/Inflation Report for October 2015 Here
 

 

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