CPI Rises to 9.6% in Dec'15; Driven by Higher Imported Foods & Beverages, PMS and Clothing

Proshare

Sunday, January 17, 2016 4:31 PM / NBS

In December, the pace of increases recorded by Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased for the second consecutive month. The Headline index increased by 9.6% (year-on-year), 0.2% points higher from rates recorded in November.

The increase in the Headline index was driven in part by higher prices within key divisions which contribute to the index.  In particular, imported food items within the Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Divisions; Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco and Kola; Clothing and Footwear and Transportation (as a result of intermittent PMS supply shortages) divisions all impacted the index. 

Food prices recorded significant pressures in December. The Food sub-index increased to 10.6% (year-on-year) during the month, 0.3% points from rates recorded in November. All major food groups which contribute to the Food sub-index increased at a faster pace during the month with the exception of the Milk, Cheese and Eggs group.  

Increases in the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index rose at the same rate for the third consecutive month at 8.7%. The Core sub-index was weighted upon by slower increases in major divisions as Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels; and Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance continue to weigh on the index. 

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline Index increased at a faster pace for a second consecutive month. The index increased by 1.0%, 0.3% points higher from 0.7% in November. All indices which contribute to the Headline index increased at a faster pace (month-on-month) in November with the exception being the Education division, which has increased albeit at a slower pace for four consecutive months. 

In December, the Urban index grew at at faster pace relative to November, increasing by 9.7% (year-on-year) from 9.4%. The pace of increase recorded in December in the Rural Index was relatively muted, increasing from 9.3% in November to 9.4% in December. On a month-on-month basis, both the Urban and Rural indices increased at the same pace, both increasing at 1.0% in December, 0.3% points from 0.7% in November.     

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelvemonth period ending in December over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 9.0%, marginally higher from 8.9% recorded in November. The corresponding twelve-month year-onyear average percentage change for the Urban index increased from 8.9% in November to 9.1% in December, while the corresponding Rural index also edged higher to 8.9% in December from 8.8% in November.  

Food Index
The pace of increases in food prices as recorded by the Food Sub-index increased for the second consecutive month in December. Prices increased by 10.6% (year-on-year), 0.3% points higher from rates recorded in November, and also surpassing the 2015 year’s high recorded in November. The Sub-index rose by 9.9% over the calendar year, 0.4% points higher from rates recorded in 2014.  

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 1.2% in December, 0.4%points higher from  rates recorded in November. All groups which contribute to the Food Sub-index increased at a higher pace, with the highest rises recorded in the Fish, Vegetables; Potatoes, Yams & Other Tubers, and Fruit  groups.  The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in December 2015 over the previous twelve month average was 9.9%.  This was marginally higher than the average annual rate of change recorded in November; 9.8%.  

All Items Farm Produce
The pace of increases recorded by the “All items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce increased at the same pace for the third consecutive month, increasing by 8.7% in December.

And while key divisions such as Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels; and Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance weighed on the index, the index was supported by increases in the Transportation, Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco & Kola; and Clothing and Footwear divisions. On a month-on-month basis, the Core Sub-index increased at a faster pace, increasing by 0.8% in December, 0.2% points higher from rates recorded in November.

In December, the highest price increases were recorded in the Garments, Vehicle Spare Parts as a result of replacement costs, Passenger Transport by Road, and Furniture & Furnishings groups. The average twelve month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 8.2% for the twelve-month period ending in December 2015, 0.2% points higher from the twelve month rate of change recorded in November.  

Download the NBS DECEMBER CPI/INFLATION REPORT Here

 

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