CPI Rises to 9.4% in Sep'15; Driven by Higher Food and Non-Food Divisions


Wednesday October 14, 2015 / 11.03am /National Bureau of Statistics 

In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased mariginally to 9.4% (year-on-year), from 9.3% in August.

The faster pace in September was as a result of higher Food and non-food divisions - Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco and Kola; Clothing and Footwear; and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels divisions -- amongst others which contribute to the Headline index.

While the Muslim holiday period may have contributed to higher food prices, the Food Sub-index as a whole recorded a marginal increase, increasing by 10.2% (year-on-year) in September from 10.1% in August.

Prices rose in major categories such as Bread and Cereals, Meats, Fish; and Oils and fats groups.

The Fruit, Vegetables, and Potatoes, Yams and Other Tubers groups have however held constant or grown at a slower pace for three consecutive months, ultimately weighing on the index.

The advances recorded by the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index increased at a marginally slower pace in September relative to August.

The Core sub-index increased by 8.9% in September (year-on-year), from 9.0% in August.

The Core sub-index was weighted upon by slower increases in multiple groups and or divisions in particular; garments, Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, Hotel Accommodation services, and other services in the Communication and Miscellaneous Goods and Services divisions.

It should be noted that the Headline Index is made up of the Core Index and Farm Produce items. As Processed Foods are included in both the Core and Food sub-indices, this implies that these sub-indices are not mutually-exclusive.

On a month-on-month basis, the pace of increases of the Headline index has held constant for the second consecutive month at 0.6%, the lowest pace recorded this year. Non-food divisions which weighted on the index include Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels; Communication, Education and Miscellaneous Goods and Services.

In September, the Urban index edged higher, increasing by 9.5 percent (year-on-year), up by 0.3% points from 9.2% in August. On the other hand, the Rural increased by 9.3% in Septemer from 9.4% in August.

On a month-on-month basis, the Urban index edged higher from 0.6% in August to 0.7% in September, while the Rural index increased at a slower pace for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 0.5% in September from 0.6% in August.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in September over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 8.7%, marginally higher from the 8.6% rate recorded in August.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the Urban index increased marginally from 8.6% to 8.7%, while the corresponding Rural index also edged higher to 8.6% in September from 8.5% in August.

Food Index
 As stated earlier, while the Muslim holiday in September may have contributed to higher food prices, the Food sub-index as a whole recorded a marginal increase. 

Food prices as observed by the Food Sub-index increased by 10.2%, from 10.1% recorded in August. Pressures were recorded in the Bread and Cereals, Meat, Fish, and Oils and Fats groups.

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index held at the same rate for  the second consecutive month in September, increasing by 0.6%. Prices were weighed upon by a slower increase of Bread and Cereals; Eggs, Milk and Cheese; and the Oils and Fats groups.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in September 2015 over the previous twelve month average was 9.6%, holding at the same rate for three consecutive months.

All Items Less Farm Produce
The pace of increases recorded on the “All items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce eased in September. Prices increased by 8.9% in September, marginally lower from the 9.0% rate recorded in August.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core Sub-index increased at the same rate for three consecutive months at 0.6%. The largest increases were recorded in Books & Stationeries groups as a result of the start of the new school year, Household textiles, Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils; and Shoes and Other Footwear groups.

Prices eased however in the Liquid Fuels for Personal Transport, Housing rents, and garment prices mongst others.

The average twelve month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 7.6% for the twelve-month period ending in September 2015, 0.2% points higher from the twelve month rate recorded in August.

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