CPI Rises to 13.7% in April; 0.9% points Higher Than 12.8% March Rate

Proshare

Monday, May 16, 2016 10.41PM / NBS

All Items Index
In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation recorded a relatively strong increase for the third consecutive month. The Headline index increased by 13.7% (year-on-year), roughly 0.9% points higher from rates recorded in March (12.8%). The higher rate of increase relative to March, was reflected in faster increases across all divisions which contribute to the index with the exception of the Restaurants and Hotels division which increased, albeit at a slower pace for the third consecutive month.

Lingering structural constraints continue to manifest spill overs in April as Electricity rates, Kerosene prices, the impact of higher PMS prices and Vehicle Spare Parts were the largest contributors to the Core Sub index during the month. These items as well as other imported items continued to have ripple effects across many divisions that contribute to the Core.

The index increased by 13.4% in March, roughly 1.2% points from rates recorded in March. The Food index reflected tighter supplies across most groups that contribute to the sub index. The sub index increased by 13.2% in April, up by 0.4% points from rates recorded in March as all major food groups which contribute to the Food sub index increased at a faster pace driven by higher food prices in Fish, Bread and Cereals, and Vegetables groups.

Month-on-month, while the Headline Index increased in April, the index slowed for the second consecutive month. The index increased by 1.6%, in April, 0.6% points from rates recorded in March.

All divisions which contribute to the index increased at a slower pace, during the month with the exception of the Housing Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuel division. Year on year, both the Urban and Rural indices recorded marked increases for the third consecutive month in March. The Urban index rose by 15.1%, 1.6% points from 13.5% in March. While the Rural Index increased, upward pressure on prices were relatively less severe in the rural areas as the index increased 12.8% year-on-year, 0.7% points from 12.0% in March.

On a month-on-month basis, while the Urban index increased at a faster pace, from 2.0% in March to 2.2% in April, the Rural index increased at a slower pace, from 2.1% in March to 1.4% in April.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelvemonth period ending in April 2016 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 10.2%, higher from 9.8% recorded in February.

The corresponding twelvemonth year-on-year average percentage change for the Urban index increased from 9.9% in March to 10.5% in March, while the corresponding Rural index also increased from 9.6% in March to 9.9% in April.

Food Index
Increases in imported as well as domestically produced foods resulted in a higher increase in the Food Sub index in April. The index increased by 13.2% (Year-on-year) during the month, 0.4% points higher from rates recorded in March. All groups which contribute to the index increased during the month with the exception of the Fruit and “Potatoes, Yams and Other Tuber” groups. On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 1.3% in April, 1.0% points lower from rates recorded in March.

All groups which contribute to the Food Sub-index increased at a slower pace during the month with the exception of the “Milk, Cheese and Eggs” group. Month-on-month, the highest price increases were recorded in the Bread and Cereals; Oils and Fats, and Meats groups.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in April 2016 over the previous twelve month average was 10.8%, 0.3% points from the average annual rate of change recorded in March.

All Items Less Farm Produce

The “All items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index. The index increased by 13.4% in April, 1.2% points from 12.2% recorded in March. All key divisions which contribute to the index increased at a faster pace with the exception of the Restaurants and Hotels division which increased at a slower pace for the second consecutive month.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core Sub-index increased at a slower pace for the second consecutive month in April, increasing by 1.7%, 0.2% points lower from 1.9% in March.


In April, on a month-on-month basis, the highest price increases were recorded in the Electricity, Motor Cars, Fuels and Lubricants for Passenger Transport (PMS), and Liquid Fuels (kerosene) groups.


The average twelve month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 9.6% for the twelvemonth period ending in April 2016, 0.5% points higher from the twelve month rate of change recorded in March (9.1%). 

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