CPI Remains Unchanged at 9.6% in Jan'16; Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Increase at a Faster Pace

Proshare

Monday, February 15, 2016 10:16AM / NBS

All Items Index

In January, the change in levels recorded by Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation the held at a constant pace relative to January, increasing by 9.6%. While divisions such as Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Clothing and Footwear, and others increased at a faster pace in the month, relative to December 2015, the Headline index was weighed upon by slower increases in other major divisions such as Housing Water, Electricity. Gas and Other Fuels; and Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance.


The pace of increases in food prices as recorded by the Food sub-index increased at the same pace in January as in December, increasing by 10.6% (year-on-year). During the month, all major food groups which contribute to the Food sub-index increased at a faster pace during the month with the exception of the Fruit Vegetables; Potatoes, Yam & Other Tubers; Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery groups.

After increasing at the same pace for the third consecutive month, the “All Items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index edged marginally higher, increasing by 8.8% in January 2016 from 8.7% in December 2015. The Core sub-index was supported by multiple divisions which contribute to the index such as Transport, Communication, Education and others.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline Index increased at a slower pace in January relative to December. The index increased by 0.9%, marginally lower from 1.0% in December as most contributing divisions slowed with the expections of the Education; Housing Water, and Farm Produce items. As Processed Foods are included in both the Core and Food sub-indices, this implies that these sub-indices are not mutually-exclusive. Electricity. Gas and Other Fuels; and Health divisions.

In January, the Urban index grew at the same pace relative to November, increasing by 9.7% (year-on-year), while the Rural index has increased (albeit marginally) for a third consecutive month, increasing from 9.4% in December to 9.5% in January.

On a month-on-month basis, both the Urban and Rural indices increased at a slower pace, both increasing at 0.9% in January, marginally lower from 1.0% in December. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelvemonth period ending in January 2016 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 9.1%, marginally higher from 9.0% recorded in December.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the Urban index increased from 9.1% in December to 9.2% in January, while the corresponding Rural index also edged higher from 8.9% in December to 9.0% in January.

Food Index

Driven in part by increases in imported food prices which’s rate of change continues to surpass previous years’ highs, the pace of increases in food prices as recorded by the Food Sub-index increased at the same pace for the second consecutive month in January by 10.6%. Year-on-year, the highest price increases were recorded in the Fish, Vegetables and Bread and Cereals groups.

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.9% in January, 0.3%points lower from rates recorded in December. All groups which contribute to the Food Sub-index increased at a slower pace, with the exceptions of the Bread and Cereals and Milk, Eggs and Cheese groups.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in January 2016 over the previous twelve month average was 10.0%. This was marginally higher than the average annual rate of change recorded in December; 9.9%.

All Items Less Farm Produce

After increasing at the same pace for the previous three months, the pace of increases recorded by the “All items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce increased at a faster pace in January, increasing by 8.8% from 8.7 in December.

And while key divisions, Clothing and Footwear, Transportation, and Communication pushed the index higher, the index was weighed upon by slower increases in major divisions such as Housing Water, Electricity. Gas and Other Fuels; and Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core Sub-index increased at the same pace for the second consecutive month, increasing by increasing by 0.8% in January. In January, the highest price increases were recorded in the Passenger Transport by Road, and Books and Stationery groups as a result of the start of the new educational sessions across the country.

The average twelve month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 8.4% for the twelvemonth period ending in January 2016, 0.2% points higher from the twelve month rate of change recorded in December 2015.

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