Buhari: Slow Start or Guessing Game – LBS EBS – July 2015

Proshare

 Friday, July 03, 2015 2:54 AM / FDC
 

The chatter in the market is about the cabinet yet to be formed as well as a clear direction to the market on key issues. Here are the most recent decisions on such to help place this in context:

1.    Obasanjo announced his cabinet on June 30, 1999.

2.    Yaradua announced his cabinet on July 26, 2007.

3.    Jonathan the incumbent announced his team on July 6, 2011.
 

Thus the average time between inauguration and cabinet is 5.7 weeks.
 

President Buhari needs to make haste slowly, knowing that it is impossible to make omelette without breaking eggs. There is never an ideal situation but usually an optimal solution. Key decisions that are pending are petroleum subsidies, anti-corruption indictments and sensitive non-cabinet appointments of the presidency.
 

The implications of a fast changing political and economic situation and its impact on businesses are discussed at the July LBS Executive Breakfast session with B.J. Rewane and the FDC team.

 

  

 

Highlights- Making Omelette without Breaking Eggs

 

·         Handover seamless with great citizen expectations as the sizzle appears to fizzle

·         Rhetoric long, actions short YET In politics all things are possible

·         NASS in fisticuffs over leadership positions as Senate President goes rogue on APC, so also the speaker

·         FAAC allocation marginally up to N409bn; Average oil price at a 2-month low of $63pb as Nigeria’s output now down to 1.85mbpd, denting the fiscal revenue and undermining the FGN’s ability to bail out state governments

·         CBN forced to resort to administrative controls to support the naira BUT for how long?

·         A.C. Nielsen says consumer confidence in Nigeria is at a record high of127 (Consumer confidence index measures availability of discretionary funds and optimism)

·         JP Morgan’s threat to delist Nigeria from the bond index is riling markets

·         The divergence between parallel and IFEM market now at its widest 16.2% or N31
 

Download the LBS EXECUTIVE BREAKFAST SESSION - JULY 2015 HERE
 

 

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