Buhari 365 Days in Office: A Year of Hope, Change and Fear - FDC

Proshare

Tuesday, May 31, 2016 2:10PM /FDC

High scores on transparency and average grades on the economy seem to be the consensus opinion on the performance of the Buhari team in its first year in office.

The decline in economic activity is expected to turn into a recovery early in 2017. This is because of a stimulus package and the late adoption of market reforms.

Almost all analysts agree that procrastination and delayed decisions have done more to hurt the economy than the fall in oil prices.

Kindly find attached/below the slides presented by Bismarck Rewane at the Channels TV programme on the first anniversary of the Buhari-Osinbajo administration.

Hope, Change & Fear



Policies - Promises Intention & Outcome



Delays Are Expensive

·         Delays are expensive

·         Budget 6 months late

·         Subsidy removal 12 months

·         Forex policy 15 months delayed

·         Better late than never
 

Economic Snapshot (1)



Economic Snapshot (2)


 
Consumer Prices Spike



Headline Inflation Spike



·         Headline inflation jumped to a 6 year high of 13.7%

·         Driven mainly by shortages, scarcity and speculation
 

Peer Group Comparison



Quality Of Life



·         Lower quality of life in Nigeria relative to SS Africa


Adversarial Regulatory Environment

·         NCC, NAFDAC, etc

·         Zero-tolerance for infraction

·         Grievance channels are blocked

·         Arbitrary fines and corporate xenophobia

·         Situation improving


Risks  

·         Policy reversal or ideological backsliding

·         Another sharp fall on oil prices to below $40

·         Reduced oil production (Niger-Delta militancy)

·         Policy implementation delays

·         Weak consumer demand

·         Declining purchasing power

 

Outlook – The Future Looks Bright



The Future Looks Bright

·         New policy direction indicative of economic turnaround

·         GDP growth in 2017 estimated at 2.8%

·         Oil prices set to increase in 2017 ($55pb) – 2018 ($67pb)

·         Private consumption, gross fixed investment & FDI will spike

·         Trade balance will return to surplus of $6.6bn from a deficit (-$6.9bn)

 

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