Tuesday, February 14, 2017/ 10:57 AM /FBNQuest Research
The FGN’s 2017 budget proposals suggest a rethink on revenue collection. They see non-oil earnings of N1.37trn out of a N4.94trn (US$16.2bn) total for the FGN, which is not to be confused with federally collectible revenues.
The rethink amounts to an acknowledgment that a sizeable increase in collections from the non-oil economy, even from a low base, is a programme for several years. The proposals see richer pickings from the oil economy (N1.98trn) whereas the 2016 budget set overambitious targets for non-oil and independent revenues.
In January-September 2016 total revenues for the account of the FGN were just N2.17trn, and therefore far short of the full-year target of N3.86trn.
The underperformance applied both to the oil sector (on account of sabotage of pipeline infrastructure) and to the non-oil economy (due to depressed household demand and regulatory changes such as the CBN circular on import items no longer eligible for fx).
The non-oil revenue projections for 2017 are not available by collection agency. We can say, however, that the FIRS is comfortably the largest agency, responsible for petroleum profits tax, companies’ income tax, and import and non-import VAT. It has met its collection target every year this century other than 2006, 2015 and, almost certainly, 2016.
Recoveries are outside the remit of the FIRS. The authorities announced at the weekend that they had recovered US$151m and N8bn in stolen monies in less than two months under a new “whistle-blower” programme.
The 2017 budget proposals project a total of N565bn (currently US$1.85bn) from recoveries, which are being treated this year as other non-oil revenues rather than as a deficit financing item.
1. Public Presentation of The 2017 Budget Proposals by Senator Udoma Udo Udoma
2. Budget 2016 - Welcome Growth in Capital Releases
3. 2017 Budget - Navigating Through A Cloudy Atmosphere
4. Nigeria’s 2017 Budget of Recovery & Growth – Bright and Sore Spots
5. Made in Nigeria and Make in Nigeria - Strategic Steps to Grow The Economy
6. Nigeria and 2017 - The Limit of Expectations
7. Manufacturing PMI Stands at 52.0% in December from 46.0% in November 2016 - CBN
8. Not a Vintage Year
9. Ambitious Spending Plans in 2017 Will Not Be Realised
10. Oil-Driven Recovery Will Be Muted in 2017, Investment Lustre Will Be Slow To Return
11. A fourth Relief Programme for the States
12. Untapped Potential of Remittances
13. 2017: A Year of Fear Laced with Hope
14. 2017 Budget - Too little or too large?
15. Nigeria’s Economic Indicators in 2016
16. President Buhari's 2017 Budget Speech - Full Text
17. Nigeria: FY17 Budget - Ambitious Revenue Target
18. 2017 Budget:President Buhari presents N7.298trl appropriation to NASS
19. The 2017 – 2019 Medium-Term-Expenditure-Framework – Nov 24, 2016
20. Remarks by President Buhari at the signing of 2016 Budget - May 06, 2016
21. Summary of President Buhari's Budget Presentation - Dec 22, 2015
22. The 2016 Nigeria Budget Address - Buhari
23. Finally, an approved 2016 budget – Mar 30, 2016