All Region Terms of Trade Index Rose by 9% Driven by Mineral Products - NBS

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Wednesday, September 26, 2018 / 03:48 PM / NBS    

 

Highlights

Between January and June 2018

  • The All commodity group import price index rose by 2% driven by miscellaneous manufactured articles
  • The All commodity group export price index rose by 11% driven by mineral products, wood products, live animals and vegetable products
  • The All products terms of trade (TOT) index rose by 9% driven by mineral products
  • The All region group export index rose by 9% as a result of trade with The Americas region
  • The All region group import index fell by 2% as a result of trade with Oceania region
  • The All region terms of trade rose by 11% as a result of trade with the Americas.

In Q2 2018, Nigeria’s top five trading partner countries were Belgium, China, Spain, the Netherlands and India.

  • The major export to these countries was crude petroleum and natural gas
  • The major import from these countries was motor spirit (ordinary)

 

Terms Of Trade

The terms of trade (TOT) represent the ratio between a country’s export prices and its import prices. The ratio is calculated by dividing the price of the exports by the price of the imports, usually in percentage terms. The terms of trade for Nigeria are calculated as the value of its exports as percent of the value of its imports. An increase in the terms of trade between two periods (or when TOT is greater than 100%) means that the value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the country can afford more imports for the same value of exports. For example, an increase in the price of oil between two periods (with oil production remaining the same) is likely to increase or improve the terms of trade for Nigeria and vice versa. The TOT is recorded as an index, and can be used as an indicator of an economy’s health.

 

Commodity Price Index January to June  2018

1.    All commodity group import index (Table 1) 

The All commodity group import index rose by 1.0% in February but fell by 1.3% in March. In April, the index recorded a rise of 2.5%. Average commodity prices were 0.01% higher in June,2018 compared with May

 

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The main contributors to the month-on-month changes in February were footwear (10.6%), Miscellaneous manufactured articles (9.6%), Vehicles, aircraft and parts (7.9%), animal and vegetable fats and oil (5.7%). This was offset by fall in raw hides and skin (1.2%), Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (2%), Plastic, rubber and articles (2.1%) and Paper making material; paper and paperboard, articles (2.5%).

 

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In March, month-on-month percentage changes were driven by Pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, precious metals (40.5%), Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (6.7%), Paper making material; paper and paperboard, articles (6.6%), Textiles and textile articles (5.4%) but offset by fall in Animal and vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage (1.5%), Live animals; animal products (2,8%), Mineral products (5.6%) and prepared food stuff (9.9%).

 

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In April, month-on-month percentage changes were driven by Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco (10.3%), Mineral products (6.0%), Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins etc.; saddlery (5.8%), Vegetable products (3.7%). This was offset by fall in textiles and textile articles (4.6%), Animal and vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage (5.6%), Vehicles, aircraft and parts thereof; vessel (6.6%) and Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sunshades, whips etc (7.6%).

 

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The month –on- month change in May was driven by Live animals; animal products (7.3%), Animal and vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage (2.4%). The increase was however offset by decline in Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (1.8%) and Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins etc.; saddlery (2.5%)

 

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The June monthly change was driven by raw hides and skin (1.6%), Miscellaneous manufactured articles (1.6%), wood and articles of wood (1.4%). This was offset by fall in live animals, animal products (3.3) and vegetable products (10.8%)

 

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2. All commodity group export index (Table 2) 

The All commodity group export index rose 6.7% in February and advanced 0.1% in March. The index fell 3.9% in April, rose 10% in May but decreased by 1.7% in June.

 

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In February, products that contributed the most to the monthly percentage change were Vehicles, aircraft and parts (19.5%), Miscellaneous manufactured products (17.3%), Base metals and articles (15.3%),live animals , animal products 10.8%. Products that contributed negatively were Articles of stone, Plaster (1.2%), Paper making materials (1.3%) and prepared foodstuff (3.8%).

 

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The March month-on-month percentage changes (Export) were driven mainly by Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (7.2%) Products of the chemical and allied industries (7.1%), Animal and vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage prod (6.3%) but offset by Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco (15.1%) and Base metals and articles of base metals (23.6%).

 

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The monthly percentage changes in April were driven by prepared foodstuff and breverages (22.9%), Base metals and articles of base metals (18.1%), Vegetable products (16.1%). They were offset by vehicles, aircraft and parts (15.7%), Animal and vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage (10.6%) and Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (8.6%).

 

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The main contributors to the month-on-month changes for May exports were Mineral products (10.5%), footwear, head gear (7%) wood and articles of wood (4.4%)offset by miscellaneous manufactured products (10.6%) ,vegetable products (4.5%) and products of allied and chemical industries (4.1%).

 

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The June month-on-month  percentage changes were driven by  Animal and vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage prod (8.7%) Miscellaneous manufactured articles (6.1%) and  Base metals and articles of base metals (1.7%) offset by Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sunshades, whips etc (4%) and  Vegetable products (3.6%)

 

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3. Terms of Trade by commodity (2018 Jan=100) (Table 3)

Nigeria’s all products terms of trade (TOT) indices for April, May and June 2018 stood at 100.5, 111.1 and 109.2, respectively. These indices showed favorable TOT for all the months of the second quarter, indicating that Nigeria used 0.5, 11.1 and 9.05 percent less of her exports to procure the same level of imports in the months under review. Computed statistics showed that the product groups that contributed most to the positive trade positions during the review period were Mineral products, Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles, Live animals; animal products, and Vegetable products.

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4. All Region Group export index (Table 4)

The All region group export index recorded an increase of 2.3% in February, a decline of 1.3% in March and an increase of 3.9% in April. The index reversed with a decrease of 0.3% in May but increased again in June by 1.4%.

 

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5. All Region Group import index (Table 5)

The All region group import index rose by 1.0% in February and 6.3% in March 2018. The index declined 10.6% in April, rose in May by 2.3% but fell 0.4% in June.

 

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6. Terms of Trade by Country (Regions) [2018 Jan=100] (Table 6)

The all region terms of trade rose 1.2 percent in February and fell 4.8 percent in March. In April, TOT increased 16.1 percent, fell 2.4 percent in May and ended the first half of 2018  by going up 1.7 percent in June.

 

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7. Merchandise Trade By Top Five Partners By Major Commodities In Q 2,2018 (N’million) (Table 7)

In Q2 2018, Nigeria’s top five trading partner countries were Belgium, China, Spain, the Netherlands and India.

a.     BELGIUM

The major export of Nigeria to Belgium during the quarter was other petroleum gases valued at N11.7billion.This was followed by good fermented cocoa beans (N474m), frozen shrimps (N453.5m) and other meals and pellets of crutacean (N53.9m).On the import side, Nigeria imported motor spirit worth N117.6billion, Gas oil valued at N20.6billion, malt (N4.1billion), polyethylene (N2.0billion) and other polyethers (N1.6 billion) from Belgium.

 

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b. CHINA 

The major export of Nigeria to China during the quarter was natural liquefied gas valued at N23.6billion. This was followed by propane worth N3.5billion, Butane valued at N3.4b, Sesamum seed worth N3.4billion and other liquefied petroleum gases worth N3.2billion. In terms of imports, Nigeria imported other Herbicides worth N31billion, Motor cycles valued at N12.9billion, Amorphous pet chips at N12.3illion, Reception appliances worth N10.5billion and other Machinery parts worth N10.3 billion from China.

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c. SPAIN

Crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals valued at N372.9billion was exported to Spain during the second quarter of 2018. Liquefied natural gas worth N49.3 billion, leather (further prepared after tanning/crusting without wool on of goats or kids) valued at N2.6billion, natural rubber (in primary forms or in plates) worth N410million and fermented Nigerian cocoa beans valued at N256million were other major exports to Spain. The major imports from Spain were ordinary motor Spirit (N18 billion), Petroleum bitumen (N8 billion), Mixed alkylbenzenes &mixed alkylanaphthalenes (N7.5billion), Gypsum; anhydrite whether or not coloured, with/without small quantities of accelerators (N2.3 billion) and Other machinery for earth, stone, ores (N1.3 billion)

 

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d. THE NETHERLANDS

The major commodities exported to the Netherlands were crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals worth N421.3 billion, Other petroleum gases etc in gaseous state (N17.5 billion), Naphthalene (N9.2 billion), Superior quality raw cocoa beans (N3.2billion) and fermented Nigerian cocoa beans (N2billion). On the imports side, ordinary motor spirit, Gas Oil , blue whitings, Herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), and milk & cream in powder specially made for infants, worth N98.2billion, N38.7billion, N7.1 billion,N2.7billion and N2.3 billion respectively were the major imports from the Netherlands.

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e. INDIA

As with the other countries, crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals was the major export to India, at a value of N635.2 billion. Other major exports were liquefied natural gas (N72.9billion), Cashew nuts, in shell (N10billion), Leather (N667million) and Unwrought lead (N468.7million). On the other hand, Nigeria imported motorcycles and cycles worth N26.8billion, Tubes, pipes, hollow profiles of iron worth N6.6billion, Other machinery parts of N6.6billion, Other paper and paperboard weighing 40g/m2 worth N2.7billion and Medicaments of other antibiotics worth N2.4 billion. 


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Click Here to Download Q2 2018 Commodity Price Index and Terms of Trade PDF Report

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