All Region Terms of Trade Fell -2.78% Due to a Fall in the Prices of Goods Traded in Africa - NBS

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Monday, March 18, 2019  11:50 AM / NBS


Highlights: 

Between October and December 2018 (Jan 2018=100):

Ø  The All commodity group import price index rose 0.89% due to a rise in the prices of prepared foodstuffs.

Ø  The All commodity group export price index edged down by 2.02%. The decrease was led by falling prices of Vegetable products, Vehicles, aircraft and parts thereof and Products of the chemical and allied industries.

Ø  The All products terms of trade (TOT) index fell 2.8%, due to falling prices of Products of the chemical and allied industries, Mineral products, Live animals; animal products.

Ø  The All region group export index declined by 2.02% due to falling prices in trade with Asia and within Africa.

Ø  The All region group import index ticked up 0.76% due to increase in prices associated with trade from Oceania and Africa

Ø  The All region terms of trade fell -2.78% due to a fall in the prices of goods traded in Africa.

Ø  Nigeria’s major trading partners in Q4,2018 were India, China, Spain, France and Netherlands

Ø  The major export to these countries was crude petroleum and natural gas

Ø  The major import from these countries was motor spirit (ordinary).

 

Terms Of Trade

The terms of trade (TOT) represents the ratio between a country’s export prices and its import prices. The ratio is calculated by dividing the price of the exports by the price of the imports, usually in percentage terms. In this report, the terms of trade is calculated as the value of Nigeria’s exports as a percentage of the value of its imports. An increase in the terms of trade between two periods (or when TOT is greater than 100%) means that the value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the country can afford more imports for the same value of exports. For example, an increase in the price of oil between two periods (with oil production remaining the same) is likely to increase or improve the terms of trade for Nigeria and vice versa. The TOT is recorded as an index and can be used as an indicator of an economy’s health.

      

Commodity Price Index October To December 2018

All commodity group import index (Table 1)


The All commodity group import index, on average, grew by 0.89% during the quarter, following a 0.47% drop in November and a 1.36% rise in December.

 

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The main drivers of the change in November were Raw hides and Skin (+4.0%),Live animals;animal products (+3.4%),Base metals and articles (+1.4%), as well as animals and vegetable fats (+1.3%). These were offset by decreases in Products of the chemical and Allied industries (-1.0%), Mineral product (-1.1%),Vegetable products (-1.3%) and foot wears, head gears etc(-2.1%).


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In December 2018, the positive contributions of Prepared foodstuffs (+4.1%), Foot wears (+2.6%), Mineral products (+2.2%) and Products of the chemical and Allied industries (+1.8%) were also offset by negative trends in Vegetable products (-0.9%), Textiles and articles (-2.0%), Animal and Vegetable fats (-2.3%) and Raw hides and Skin (-2.9%).

 

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All commodity group export index (Table 2)

The All commodity group export index recorded 106.2, 107.4 and 104.0 in October, November and December respectively. This represents an increase of 1.2% between October and November, but a drop of 3.2% between November and December. On average, there was a decrease of 2.02%.

 

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The product groups that contributed to the changes in November were: Base metals and articles of base metals (+3.8%), Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (+2.4%) and Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins etc.; saddlery (+1.8%). These were offset by Products of the chemical and allied industries (-2.0%), Vehicles, aircraft and parts thereof; vessels(-3.0%) and Vegetable products (-3.3%).

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However, in December 2018, prepared foodstuffs (+3.66%), Footwear, headgears (+1.9%), as well as Live animals; animal products (+1.6%) all had positive impacts on the All product (export) group. At the same time, the downward trend recorded in base metals and articles (-2.6%), Mineral products (-3.3%), Articles of stone, plaster, cement (-3.5%), among others, affected the overall performance of the All product group export index.

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Terms of Trade by commodity (2018 Jan=100) (Table 3)

The All products terms of trade index stood at 98.0 in October, 99.6 in November and 95.1 in December. This indicated an increase of 1.64% in November and a decrease of 4.48 % in December. On average, the terms of trade declined by 2.8% during the quarter, further indicating less favourable terms of trade. The product groups that contributed to these changes were Products of the chemical and allied industries, Mineral products and Live animals; animal products.

 

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All Region Group export index (Table 4)

The All region group export index stood at 106.2 in October, an increase of 1.8% over the figure recorded in September. In November and December, it registered 107.5 and 104.0, representing an increase of 1.23% between October and November and a drop  of 3.25% between November and December. Overall, the index recorded a drop of 2.02%, driven mainly by falling exports prices in Asia and within Africa.


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All Region Group import index (Table 5)

The all region group import index stood at 108.4 in October, 107.9 in November and 109.2 in December. This indicates a decrease of 0.5% in November against the index recorded in October and an increase of 1.26% in December when compared with the value recorded in November. Overall, the index recorded 0.76% increase during the quarter, driven by rising prices of imports from the Oceania region.

 

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Terms of Trade by Regions [2018 Jan=100] (Table 6)

During the quarter, the All Region terms of trade registered 98.07 (October), 99.74 (November) and 95.27 (December). These indices show an increase of 1.7% in November  compared with October, and a decrease of 4.48% in December against the level in November. On average, the terms of trade declined by 2.78% during the quarter driven by less favourable terms of trade within Africa.


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Merchandise Trade by Top Five Partners and Major Commodities In Q 4, 2018 (N’million) (Table 7)

India was Nigeria’s major export market in Q4 2018 accounting for 15.5% (N780.1billion) of total exports. The largest export commodity to India was crude oil (N730.3billion). This was followed by Natural gas liquified (N39.1billion), Sesamum seed (N4.1 billion), Cashew nuts (N2.0billion) and others.

On the other hand, Nigeria imported Live purebred horses (N66.5billion), Live horses (N9.3billion), Primates (N6.8billion) and Other live mammals (N6.6billion) from India during the period under review.


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B. CHINA 

China has maintained its position as a major trading partner of Nigeria. In Q4 2018, Nigeria’s export trade with China was dominated by Natural Gas liquified which amounted to N63.4billion in value, followed by crude oil (N23.5billion), sesamum seed(N13.7billion), propane, liquified (N8.0billion) and butane, liquified (N4.7billion).

In terms of imports, Machines for reception of voice, Motor Cycles, Machine tools for working stones, Amorphous PET chips and Machines for cleaning seeds worth N35.6billion, N19.9 billion, N18.9billion, N15.6billion and N14.2 billion respectively were imported from China.

 

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C. SPAIN 

Nigeria’s exports to Spain was valued at N569.4 billion making it the second largest export market for Nigeria in Q4 2018. Crude oil was the top Nigerian export during the period under review, valued at N471.6billion. Other goods exported to Spain during the period were Natural Gas liquified valued at N93.1billion, Leather prepared after tanning (goat) (N2.1billion) and others.

In terms of imported commodities, Live purebred breeding horses valued at N295.2 billion, Live horses other than purebred valued at N285.9 billion, Primates valued at N283.4 billion and other Live mammals valued at N270.2 billion were imported from Spain.


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D. FRANCE

 

In Q4 2018, Nigeria exported N432.2billion worth of crude oil to France. Other major export commodities include: Natural Gas Liquified valued at N62.1 billion and Technically-specified natural rubber valued at N0.6 billion. In terms of imports, the main commodity imported was Motor spirit, accounting for N36.5 billion. Other imported products were Machinery for filling/closing/capsuling/labelling (N4.2billion) and Industrial air compressors (N3.6billion). 


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E. The Netherlands

The Netherlands, a major export market of Nigeria in Q4 2018, accounted for 6.5% (N328.7billion) of total exports. Exports to the Netherlands was dominated by crude oil (N272.6billion). This was followed by other petroleum gases in gaseous state (N19.1billion), Good fermented Nigerian Cocoa Beans (N15.3 billion) and Superior quality raw Cocoa Beans (N7.1billion) and others. With respect to imports, Motor spirit valued at N143.2billion, Gas oil valued at N94.5billion, Other parts of gas turbine valued at N28.5billion were the major goods imported from the Netherlands.                            

 

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Click Here to Download Q4 2018 Commodity Price Index and Terms of Trade PDF Report 


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