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Between October and December 2019 (Jan 2018=100):
Terms of Trade
The terms of trade (TOT) represent the ratio between a country's export prices and its import prices. The ratio is calculated by dividing the price of the exports by the price of the imports, usually in percentage terms. An increase in the terms of trade between two periods (or when TOT is greater than 100%) means that the value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the country can afford more imports for the same value of exports. For example, an increase in the price of oil between two periods (with oil production remaining the same) is likely to increase or improve the terms of trade for Nigeria and vice versa. The TOT is recorded as an index, and can be used as an indicator of an economy's health.
Commodity Price Index October To December, 2019
All commodity group import index (Table 1)
The All commodity group import index decreased by 3.27% on average between October and December. This was attributed to a drop in the prices of prepared foodstuffs (-8.87%), Miscellaneous manufactured articles (-6.99%) and Live animals, animal products (-6.58%). The decline was partially offset by increases in the prices of Articles of stone, plaster, cement (7.86%), Textile and Textile articles (4.63%) and Vehicles, aircraft and Parts (3.53%).
The month -on-month change in All Commodity group import prices showed that import prices rose by 0.81% in November when compared with October. This was driven by Articles of stone, plaster cement (6.89%), Pearls, precious and semi precious stones (6.51%) and Boilers, Machinery and appliances (6.04%). However, it was negatively affected by changes in the prices of prepared foodstuffs (-7.98%), Plastic Rubber and Articles(-6.70%), Miscellaneous Manufactured articles (-6.14%) and Paper making materials(-6.02%).
In December, the All commodity group import index decreased by 4.08% on average. The overall decrease was mainly due to a drop in import prices of Boilers, Machinery and Appliances (-7.93%), Mineral products (-6.51%) and Vegetable products (-5.86%). This was offset by higher prices of Vehicles, Aircraft and Parts (4.74%), wood and articles of wood (3.64%) and Paper making materials (2.73%).
All commodity group export index (Table 2)
The All commodity group export price index decreased by 2.60% between October and December. This was as a result of decreases in the prices of Miscellaneous manufactured articles (-12.93%), Plastic rubber and articles thereof (-6.52%) and base metals (-4.37%) but positively offset by higher prices for Textile and textile articles (6.02%), vehicles, aircraft and parts (+4.62%) and footwear, head gear (2.13%).
In November 2019, the All commodity group export index decreased by 1.20%. This was as a result of decreases in the prices of Prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits (-6.15%), Base metals and Articles (-6.02%) and Miscellaneous manufactured articles (-4.73%). The decline was, however, offset by increases in the prices of Textile and Textile articles (8.58%), Vehicles, Aircraft and parts (4.62%), and Live animals; animal products (2.58%).
The monthly change in the All commodity export index stood at -1.40% in December. The decrease was due to declines in the prices of Miscellaneous manufactured articles (-8.20%), Plastic, rubber and articles (-7.24%) and Products of chemical and Allied industries (-4.45%). It was offset by Prepared foodstuffs (2.42%), Wood and Articles of wood (2.31%) and Base metals and Articles (1.65%).
Terms of Trade by commodity (2018 Jan=100) (Table 3)
The All commodity group terms of trade index stood at 102.77 in October, 100.73 in November and 103.54 in December.
This shows overall decrease of 1.99% in November and increase of 2.80% in December. On average, the terms of trade rose 0.81% between October and December. This was a result of increases in the prices of vegetable products (6.60%), Live animals (6.12%) and Prepared foodstuffs (+5.31%). It was, however, negatively offset by Articles of stone (-7.58%), Miscellaneous manufactured (-5.9%) and Products of chemical and allied industries (-2.83%).
All Region Group export index (Table 4)
The All region group export index, on average, fell by 2.60% between October and December. This was largely attributed to lower export prices to all regions, especially Europe. Month on month, the index fell by -1.20% in November and by -1.40% in December.
Between October and November 2019, the monthly change in the All Region export index stood at -1.20%. This was a result of the decreases in export prices to Europe (-3.93%) and Oceania (-0.10%). Between November and December, the monthly change stood at -1.4%, attributable to decreases in the prices of exports to Africa (-2.54%) and America (-2.4%).
All Region Group import index (Table 5)
The All Region group import index, on average, decreased by 3.27%, indicated by a 0.81% increase between October and November which was followed by a decline of 4.08% in December.
The slight growth in November was due to increases in import prices from America (5.59%) and Africa (2.59%).
In December 2019, the All Region group import prices decreased by 4.08% due to declines in import prices across all 5 regions.
6. Terms of Trade by Country Regions [2018 Jan=100] (Table 6)
The All Region group terms of trade stood at 102.77 in October, 100.73 in November and 103.54 in December. This indicates a decrease of 1.99% in November but an increase of 2.80% in December. On average, the terms of trade rose by 0.81% between October and December. This increase is explained mainly by a rise in the prices of goods traded with Asia which rose 2.75%.
Merchandise Trade By Top Five Partners And By Major Commodities (N'million) Q4, 2019
India remained Nigeria's leading trading partner in the fourth quarter of 2019 with total export valued at N628.5billion. The dominant export commodity to India was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at N592.59 billion. This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied and Sesamum seeds, whether or not broken valued at N20.60 billion and N6.64 billion respectively.
The value of import trade from India was valued at N1,207.24 billion, accounting for 22.57% of total import. Import trade during the period was dominated by Other electro-diagnostic apparatus nes, (N845.61 billion), followed by Imported motorcycles and cycles, imported CKD by established manufacturers >50cc<=250cc (N90.52 billion) and Kerosene type jet fuel (N50.26 billion).
Nigeria's total trade with China in the fourth quarter of 2019 stood at N1,243.49 billion. Exports to China was valued at N147.35 billion or 3.09% of total export during the quarter. Export trade was largely dominated by Crude petroleum oil (N74.95 billion), Natural Gas, liquefied (N50.65 billion) and Other petroleum gases etc in gaseous state (N10.59 billion). On the other hand, the value of imports from China stood at N1,096.14 billion representing 20.49% of total imports. The largest import commodities from China were Other tube or pipe fittings of stainless steel not specified; Imported motorcycles and cycles; imported CKD by established manufacturers >50cc<=250cc and Air conditioning machine, Window/wall types, self-contained/split system, Presented CKD, valued at N 51.46 billion, N37.51 billion and N24.33 billion respectively.
Nigeria's total export trade with Spain was valued N493.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. The dominant export product was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at N425.16 billion. This was followed by Natural liquefied gas worth N 65.42 billion and Leather further prepared after tanning/crusting without wool on of goats or kids valued at N1.30 billion. However, the value of imports from Spain during the quarter stood at N32.33 billion. Mixed alkylbenzenes & mixed alkylanaphthalenes, other than those of heading 27.07 or 29.02 valued at N5.95 billion ranked highest among imports. This was followed by Beverages containing high doses of caffeine of the kind for Energy drinks and Gypsum, anhydrite whether or not coloured, with/without small quantities of accelerators worth N2.62 billion and N1.73 billion respectively.
In Q4 2019, Nigeria's exports to France was valued at N371.37 billion. Major commoditiesexported during the period were Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals and Natural gas valued at N268.2billion and N102.3 billion respectively. On the other hand, imports were valued at N149.18billion, of which the main commodities were Other antibiotics amounting to N80.4 billion, Motor spirits (N27.02 billion) and Lubricating oil (N2.15 billion).
E. The Netherlands
Nigeria's trade with The Netherlands in Q4 2019 stood at N816.89 billion of which export was valued at N356.31 billion. Major export products were Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude valued at N333.68 billion, followed by Good Fermented Nigerian Cocoa Beans and Other petroleum gases in gaseous state valued at N12.33 billion and N5.31 billion respectively. However, the value of imports stood at N460.58, with the main commodity being Motor Spirits, which amounted to N305.55 billion. Other products imported were Gas oils (N48.48billion) and Other Anti-malarials (N29.55 billion).
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