5 Key Takeaways from Nigeria’s December 2018 Inflation

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Friday, January 18, 2o19 4.00PM/ Nifemi Taiyese for Proshare WebTV

 

The December, 2018 consumer price index (CPI) latest report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, (NBS) showed an increase by 11.44% which is 0.16% points higher than the 11.28% rate recorded in November 2018.

In this article we highlight 5 key takeaways from the Nigerian December, 2018 Headline Inflation report; 


A Consecutive Increase in CPI

From the analysis, the September 2018 inflation figure showed a third consecutive increase in the inflation rate, first  August(11.23%),  second September (11.28%) and third December, 2018(11.44%). 

On month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.50 percent in December 2018. This was down by 0.18 percent when compared with 0.68 percent recorded in November 2018.


Urban & Rural Inflation Increase

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.76 percent in December 2018, down by 0.07 from 0.83 percent recorded in November 2018, while the rural index also rose by 0.72 percent in December 2018, down by 0.06 percent from the rate recorded in November 2018 (0.78) percent. 

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 12.51 percent in December 2018. This is less than 12.83 percent reported in November 2018, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in December 2018 is 11.75 percent compared to 12.05 percent recorded in November 2018.


State Profiles

In December 2018, all items inflation on year on year basis was highest in Bayelsa (13.32%), while Cross River (8.21%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

The weight allocated to a food item or non-food item is highly dependent on the state.

On month on month basis however, December 2018 all items inflation was  highest in Kebbi (1.72%), while Ogun (0.07%) had the least with Kwara and Edo recording negative inflation or price deflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in December 2018.

 

Food Index

The composite food index rose by 13.56 percent in December 2018 compared to 13.30 percent in November 2018. 

This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of soft drinks, Fish, Bread and Cereals, Oils and fats, Coffee, tea and cocoa, Meat, Milk, Cheese and egg, Vegetables, Potatoes, yam and other tubers. 

On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.81 percent in December 2018, down by 0.09 percent points from 0.90 percent recorded in November 2018. 


Above FGN 2019 Budget benchmark

The current inflation rate of 11.44% is above the Federal Government’s target of 9.8% for the 2019 budget.

Analysts will be watching closely  to see if the rate will ease or continue to rise in the year.


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 Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

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