Thursday, November 17, 2016 6:30 PM / Jayaike Ukoha-Kalu
We reviewed the BMI Research’s monthly regional report on political risk and macroeconomic prospects for December 2016 containing African's Economic and Political outlook for the December period; researched, categorised sub-regionally and provided by Fitch (BMI).
Concerning the Nigerian outlook, a few points we find noteworthy are:
1) The expressed lack of faith in President Buhari's import substitution rhetoric.
2) The fact that recovery will take longer than hoped for because
a - investor confidence is still down (owing to many policy factors)
b - the perceived bearish view on oil production in Nigeria
3) The mention of the 600,000b/d Dangote group refinery and it's positive relationship with Nigeria's current account deficit.
4) The expressed lack of faith in the CBN's ability to effectively conduct a free fx market system.
5) The fact that Nigeria's foreign reserves have fallen some $3 billion below BMI's 2016 forecast.