Friday, August 03, 2018 01:25PM / By FDC
July 2018 Review – A Month Of Defections, Depletion & Deflection
LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Aug 2018
As political misunderstandings in Nigeria increase, economic costs escalate and US interest rates spike, jittery portfolio investors are beginning to bolt. $4bn of FPI lost since April.
This situation is not being helped by an oil price that has suddenly plummeted 6% to $71pb and oil production stalled at 1.6mbpd.
Fortunately, the Naira has appreciated to above the psychological resistance point of N360/$ at the parallel market, whilst simultaneously sliding to 362/$ at the IE window.
At the Nigeria Stock Exchange, the market has lost 4% in 2018 as against a gain of 37% during the corresponding period of 2017. Many corporates including Dangote and MTN are issuing commercial papers and other instruments to reduce financial costs.
The result of this spate of financial disintermediation is that the net interest margin of banks are being squeezed.
The CBN is also encouraging this trend by explicitly agreeing to participate in the commercial paper market as a way of increasing the availability of credit.
The U.S. Fed did the same thing to complement the TARP (Toxic Asset Relief Program) during the global financial crisis of 2008.
This cocktail of uncertainties and complexities are part of what Bismarck Rewane and the FDC Think Tank analysed at this month's session of the LBS Breakfast Club as shown in the attached slides.
LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Aug 2018
1. From Russia with Tears and the New Economic Disorder - LBS EBS – July 2018
2. The New Political Calculus – LBS EBS – June 2018
3. Make Hay In May, While The Sun Still Shines – LBS EBS – May 2018
4. Talking Economics and Thinking Politics – LBS EBS – April 2018
5. At $65, Oil is Up 22.4% in 12 Months, Can It Fall Again?? – LBS EBS – March 2018
6. 2019 - The Changing Political Calculus – LBS EBS – February 2018
7. The FDC 2018 Periscope – The Good, The Bad and The Annoying
8. There is More to Economic Growth Than Numbers - LBS EBS – December 2017
9. The More Things Change The More They Stay The Same - LBS EBS – November 2017
10. Basking in the Afterglow of Reform - LBS EBS – October 2017
11. Buhari Returns: Hope High and Challenges Daunting - LBS EBS - September 2017
12. Nigerian’s Domestic Debt: A Ticking Time Bomb - LBS EBS – August 2017
13. Nigeria: Is The Recovery For Real? - LBS EBS – July 2017
14. Nigeria: Recovery Slow, Steady but Painful – LBS-EBS June 2017
15. Nigerians May Escape from Anxiety with a Stronger Naira - LBS EBS - May 2017
16. Naira Gains as the CBN Tries to Catch a Falling Knife - LBS EBS - April 2017
17. Economic Reform by Coincidence - Does It Really Matter? - LBS EBS – March 2017
18. Nigeria's Economic Reform - Resist Now and Regret Later - LBS EBS - Feb 2017
19. 2017: A Year of Fear Laced with Hope
20. Running Faster to Stand Still – LBS EBS – Dec 2016
21. Recovery Fades, Strong Regulator versus Efficient Markets – LBS EBS Nov 2016
22. Nigeria Oil Shock 2.0 and the Treacherous Path to Recovery – LBS EBS Oct’16
23. Recession: how deep and for how long? – LBS EBS Sep’16
24. Policy Daunting, Markets Uncertain, Citizens Groan – LBS EBS – Aug 2016
25. With Inflation at 16.5%,Nigeria Stumbles into the Reform Path-LBS EBS Jul 2016
26. Sell in May and Go Away - LBS EBS - May 2016
27. The Squandering of a Golden Economic Opportunity – LBS EBS Apr 2016
28. Naira Weakness Undermines Economic Stability – LBS EBS – March 2016
29. 2016: The Year of Stark Economic Reality – LBS EBS – Feb 2016
30. 2016 - A Year of Growth and Commodity Turmoil – LBS EBS – Dec 2015
31. Fantasy economics & the value of the Naira – LBS EBS – Nov 2015
32. All the Presidents’ Men - Dream team or Lightweights – LBS EBS – Oct 2015
33. Loot Recovery? Restitution is no Retribution - LBS EBS – Sep 2015
34. Nigeria goes back to the Future : Market vs. Control Economy - LBS EBS - Aug 2015
35. Buhari: Slow Start or Guessing Game – LBS EBS – July 2015
36. Reflating a Strangulating Economy – LBS EBS – Jun 2015
37. Leadership Change is not a System Change – LBS EBS April 2015
38. Is the Naira Ever Going to Recover? – LBS EBS – March 2015
39. Nigeria at Crossroads- Stability or Change, Which do You Prefer? -LBS EBS – Feb 2015
40. The Falling Naira: Are you Prepared? - LBS EBS- Jan 2015
41. Octobers can be eventful - LBS EBS – Nov 2014
42. Inflation Up, Stock Market Down, What Next? - LBS EBS Sep 2014
43. MUMU-NOMIKS vs. Economics – LBS EBS – Jun 2014