Wednesday, September 7, 2016 / Book Abstract
This book combines descriptive, technical, empirical, policy evaluation, and forecasting methodologies to provide a systematic analysis of the the Nigerian economy. The author develops and tests an integrated macroeconomic input-output model of the economy's workings, using it to explain Nigeria's recent economic growth and development and to forecast the country's future growth prospects.
The model also enables Oshikoya to provide a source of information on estimates of the structural parameters of the Nigerian economy; to evaluate the role of government policy in determining general levels of economic activity; to study the relationships among the major economic variables and the determinants of their magnitudes, composition, and rates of change over time; and to examine the impacts of such factors as fluctuations in the world petroleum market, technological change, and external debt accumulation on economic growth in Nigeria.
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THE ART OF CENTRAL BANKING IN NIGERIA by Dr. Temitope OSHIKOYA
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been under tremendous pressures in managing monetary and exchange rate policies due to the prevailing economic circumstances since 2014. In the face of global oil price collapse from its highest point in July 2014 and dwindling capital inflows, Nigeria has witnessed sharp deceleration of economic growth, rising inflation and unemployment, widening gap between the parallel and official exchange rates, falling external reserves.
This book is a compendium of essays providing a balanced and pragmatic perspective to the issues of central banking, monetary policy, managing exchange rates, interest rates, capital flows and external reserves in Africa’s largest economy.
Part I of the book evaluates the performance of the CBN at achieving its economic objectives in light of the economic, political and institutional constraints. It situates the functions of the CBN within a general framework for the best practices of central banks. Three departures are highlighted: the absence of a welfare function in the 2007 CBN Act, the composition of the MPC and CBN leadership, and the growing threats to its independence. These three factors explain the erratic monetary policy decisions of the CBN.
Part II looks at the structural and contemporary issues faced by the CBN. The principal theme presented here is the monetary policy trilemma – the inability of central banks to achieve exchange rate flexibility, monetary policy independence and capital mobility all at once. The book discusses the CBN’s exchange rate management policies in the last 24 months and consider the domestic and international responses to these policies.
Part III shifts attention to two financial variables: foreign reserves and capital flows. The response of international markets to Nigeria’s exchange rate management has been generally negative, an issue that is addressed. The book assesses the rationale and impact of Nigeria’s eviction from the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index, while scrutinizing the impact of exchange rate policy on capital flows in the country, exposing the suggestion that the experienced capital outflows are driven mainly by policy decisions as opposed to global and structural factors and economic incentives.
The book maps out the policy options available in navigating the monetary policy trilemma and potential economic shocks in the future.
These policy options are situated within the social, political and economic contexts of Nigeria. As opposed to a single policy instrument as a panacea or silver bullet, a comprehensive policy package is proposed as the best policy option.
The book draws on monetary economics, and the author’s practical and professional banking experience, and high level policy exposure of working with Governors of central banks and Ministers of Finance in West Africa.
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PATHWAYS TO SHARED PROSPERITY IN NIGERIA: Making Market and Government Work in a Global Context by Dr. Temitope OSHIKOYA
This book dissects the relationship between economic growth and increased prosperity while tackling the reasons why Nigeria’s economic growth failed to deliver shared prosperity for all. The pathway to progress is mapped out here, based on a trusted mix of market principles, regulation and policy implementation.
The book raises some pertinent questions on shared prosperity for all Nigerians. How does a growing economy serve the common good? How do we create a stronger, fairer and more sustainable economic model in which the many and not just the few benefit from rising prosperity now and into the future? How do we ensure that a dynamic market economy and a fair society can go hand in hand? How do we make economic growth a friend, not a foe, of inclusive prosperity? How do we make markets work for the poor? How do we ensure that all Nigerians have a stake in its prosperity, and therefore all citizens have a stake in Nigeria’s future?
This book tries to provide pragmatic responses to those pertinent questions in the context of the Nigerian economy. It observes that the economic philosophy of the current administration in Nigeria is such that it is weary of the markets and power of the private corporates, but it is hobbled by internal partisan politics, regulatory capture, and institutional ineptitude. In essence, it is caught between market failures and government failures of the past. However, the administration must avoid what some have termed as the delusions of the market purists on the right that are more than matched by the delusions of government activists on the left.
The book proposes partnerships to address market failures and government failures in order to create shared prosperity. It also takes cognizance of Nigeria’s shared prosperity in the global context. The challenge is in realizing that economic pragmatism is in making both market and government work together for equitable and inclusive prosperity for the Nigerian people.
Economic development has always been a vehicle for human development. Yet neither the free market nor governments alone can bring about this result. A conscious effort is required to translate monetary gains to true progress.
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Watch Video Here: Temitope Oshikoya unveils 3 books on Nigerian economy
Related writings by Dr. Oshikoya
1. Nigerian Economy: Beyond a Flexible Exchange Rate Policy
2. Why portfolio investors are not flocking to Naira-based assets – Aug 11, 2016
3. Resolving the Exchange Rate Regime Conundrum
4. The Economist's evidence on devaluations
5. MPC: Behind the Curve, Playing Catch Up
6. Nigeria: Of Ministers, Clowns, Hazards, and Lazard – Apr 08, 2016
7. Current State Analysis of the Economy - Temitope Oshikoya
8. It’s the productivity, stupid.
9. It's Productivity of the Economy that Defends the Naira –Jul 8, 2015
10. Currency woes and capital flows in emerging markets – Feb 04, 2016..
11. Emefiele's CBN: one year after – June 10, 2015
12. Who command and control the economy? – May 11, 2016
13. Current State Analysis of the Economy – Oct 16, 2015
14. JP Morgan index and collective self-delusion – Sept 16, 2015
15. The Quadrilemma of Buharinomics
16. Microeconomics of Banking and High Lending Rates
17. Nextonomics puts cost of Buhari's Economic Blueprint at N60 Trillion
18. SANE as Africa's Growth Poles
Race for the AfDB Presidency
Adebayo Adedeji: A Distinguished Scholar and Public Servant
21. African Development in the 21st Century
A roadmap for inclusive prosperity
How not to manage the economy
24. Standard & Poor’s Good News on Nigeria
25. Halfway to Vision 20: 2020
26. Best Practices in Central Banking
27. Monetary policy committee at crossroads
28. Emefiele’s CBN and Nigeria’s Misery Index
29. The Central Bank's capitulation