Wednesday, March 7, 2018 / 09:07 AM /
with Q3, the total export value was 9% higher at N3.91trn, and the import value
15% lower at N2.11trn. Thus a surplus of N1.80trn (US$5.9bn) was achieved. When
we consider the full year data, we note a surplus of N4.04trn in 2017 compared
with a deficit of N290bn recorded in 2016.
The decline in imported products is partly
linked to the modest success achieved by the FGN in its import substitution
strategy. Local substitution has been primarily focused on agricultural
products. The data show a 29% decline in the value of food imports from N434bn
recorded in Q2 2017 to N337bn (US$1.10bn) in Q4.
Additionally, the spending capacity of
households remains subdued despite the nascent economic recovery, resulting in
soft demand for foreign purchases.
The significant depreciation of the naira
when compared with the fx rate in 2015 should encourage export activities. We
understand that there has been a pick-up in food exports. However, crude oil
gulped the largest share of exports, representing 83% of total exports in the
quarter, and other oil products a further 12%.
In the quarter under review, Nigeria
exported goods valued at N383bn to other African countries; exports to ECOWAS
members accounted for 40% of this figure.
Globally, there has been growing concern
around a potential trade war following US President Trump’s threat to impose
additional tariffs on specific products. A potential implication for Nigeria’s
trading activities would be escalated cost of imports.
In our opinion, trade policies within
Nigeria need to become more export-oriented without diminishing efforts geared
towards trimming the country’s import bill.
FY’17 Trade Report – It’s beginning to look a lot like Yr. 2014
- Q4’17 GDP:
Seasonal Rebound in the Non-oil Sector Strengthens Economic Recovery
Merchandise Trade Declined Marginally QoQ but Increased YoY for Q4 2017
and Storage: The Best Performer in Q4 2017
- Total Value
of Capital Imported into Nigeria in Q4 2017 Estimated at $5,382.89m - NBS
- Economy Returned to Positive Growth in 2017 But the Non-Oil Sector
Performance Remains Weak
Trade Review Q3 2017 - Trade Balance Surge on Rising Exports
- Nigeria’s External Sector Position Improves