Nigeria Economy | |
Nigeria Economy | |
1555 VIEWS | |
![]() |
Monday,
May 04, 2020 / 09:48 AM / By FBNQuest Research / Header
Image Credit: Ecographics
Our
manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the first of its kind in
Nigeria, slipped from 47.9 to 45.8 in April. Our partner, NOI Polls, has
compiled the data. The index is to be found in advanced economies such as the
ISM's in the US, larger EMs like China, India and Brazil, and a few frontier
markets. It is based upon manufacturers' responses to set questions on core
variables in their businesses. In our case, it is not seasonally adjusted. Our
highest reading was 68.7 in December 2017, and our lowest 44.6 in January 2016.
In our
unweighted model (the ISM's), respondents are asked whether output, employment,
new orders, suppliers' delivery times and stocks of purchases have increased
over the previous month, are unchanged or have declined. A headline reading of
50 (ex 100) is neutral, and anything higher points to expansion.
Our
sample of respondents is a representative mix of small, medium-sized and large
companies across the six geopolitical zones.
PMIs are
forward-looking indicators with a track record of moving markets in advanced
economies and the largest EMs. We have seen some particularly large monthly
swings this year as a result of Covid-19 and governments' responses
to it. The official index in China slumped by 14 points in February and then
soared by 16 points in March.
The movements in our index have been muted in comparison. The full lockdown in Nigeria was not uniform across the country, and was shorter in duration than in most advanced economies. Also, Nigerian manufacturing broadly produces for the domestic market so the impact of the very challenging external demand conditions has been modest, unlike in China for example.
In our
May report we will be looking out for the pass-through from any restrictions on
business and households. To give a crude idea of the impact of a domestic
lockdown on manufacturing, we see that the headline PMI reading for the Eurozone
in April crashed from 44.5 to 33.6.
On a
12-month moving average basis, the headline index retreated from 53.0 to 52.1
in April.
Related News
1.
PMI
Reading No 84: Fall on Global Headwinds
2.
Manufacturing
PMI Stands at 51.1% in March 2020 from 58.3% in February 2020
3.
PMI Reading No
81: Well Above Water
4. Manufacturing
PMI Stands at 60.8% in December 2019 from 59.3% in November 2019
5. PMI
Reading No 80: A Seasonal Boost
6. Manufacturing
PMI Stands at 59.3% in November 2019 from 58.2% in October 2019
7. Manufacturing
PMI Stands at 58.2% in October 2019 from 57.7% in September 2019
8. Manufacturing
PMI Stands at 57.7% in September 2019 from 57.9% in August 2019
9. Manufacturing
PMI Stands at 57.9% in August 2019 from 57.6% in July 2019
10. PMI
Reading No 76: Again Below Water
11. Manufacturing
PMI Stands at 57.4% in June 2019 from 57.8% in May 2019
12. PMI Reading No
73: In The Comfort Zone
13. PMI Reading No
71: Election-driven Drift
14. PMI Reading No
70: A Seasonal Slump
15. PMI Reading No
69: Well Above Water