Nigeria Slips into Recession; Real GDP Contracts by -3.62% in Q3 2020

Saturday, November 21, 2020 11:00 AM / by NBS/ Header Image Credit:  NBS

Overview of GDP in Quarter  Three 2020

 Nigeria's gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a growth rate of -3.62% (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2020. While this represents an improvement of 2.48% points over the -6.10% growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter (Q2 2020), it also indicates that two consecutive quarters of negative growth have been recorded in 2020. Furthermore, growth in Q3 2020 was slower by 5.90% points when compared to the third quarter of 2019 which recorded a real growth rate of 2.28% year on year.

The performance of the economy in Q3 2020 reflected residual effects of the restrictions to movement and economic activity implemented across the country in early Q2 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As these restrictions were lifted, businesses re-opened and international travel and trading activities resumed, some economic activities have returned to positive growth.  A total of 18 economic activities recorded positive growth in Q3 2020, compared to 13 activities in Q2 2020.

During the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at   N39,089,460.61 million in nominal terms. This performance was  3.39% higher when compared to the third quarter of 2019 which  recorded an aggregate of N37,806,924.41 million. This rate was, however, lower relative to growth recorded in the third quarter of 2019 by -9.91% points but higher than the proceeding quarter by 6.19% points. For clarity, the Nigerian economy has been broadly classified into the oil and non-oil sectors (Figure 1):

Oil Sector

The average daily oil production recorded in the third quarter of 2020 stood at 1.67 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 0.37mbpd lower than the average production recorded in the same quarter of 2019 and 0.14mbpd lower than production volume recorded in the second quarter of 2020 (Figure 2):

Real growth for  the oil sector was -13.89%  (year-on-year) in Q3 2020, indicating a sharp contraction of  -20.38% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Furthermore, real oil growth decreased by -7.26% points when compared with oil sector growth recorded in Q2 2020 (6.63%).  Quarter on quarter however, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 9.64% in Q3 2020. The sector contributed 8.73% to total real GDP in Q3 2020, down from 9.77% and 8.93% respectively recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, Q2 2020.

Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by -2.51% in real terms during the reference quarter, which is -4.36% points lower than the rate recorded in Q3 2019 but 3.54% points higher than in the second quarter of 2020. The non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), with other drivers being Agriculture (Crop Production), Construction, Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions),  and Public Administration. In real terms, the non-oil  sector contributed 91.27% to the nation's GDP in the third quarter of 2020, higher than its share in the third quarter of 2019 (90.23% ) and the second quarter of 2020 (91.07%).

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Latest 2020 NBS Reports

Latest News on Nigeria Economy

1.      Headline Inflation Climbed Higher in October, Up by 14.23% - PFI Capital, November 18, 2020 

2.     October Inflation: A Blip or Trend? - FDC, November 18, 2020 

3.  Inflation: Higher Energy Costs Could Compound Spiralling Food Prices - CardinalStone Research, November 17, 2020 

4.     Nigeria's Inflation Maintains Upward Trend Amidst Structural Rigidities - Proshare Research, November 16, 2020 

5.     Higher Energy and Food Prices Pushed Headline CPI to 14.23% YoY - NOVA Merchant Bank, November 17, 2020

Q4 2020 

1. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - October 2020
2. Headline Inflation Increases By 14.23% YoY In October 2020, 0.52% Higher Than September 2020 Rate
3. N424.71bn Generated as VAT in Q3 2020 - NBS
4. FAAC Disburses N682.06bn in September 2020 - NBS
5. Average Prices of 1kg of Rice Increased By 39.07% YoY in September 2020 - NBS
6. Average Fare Paid for Intercity Bus Increased By 24.30% YoY in September 2020 - NBS
7. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - September 2020
8. Headline Inflation Increases By 13.71% YoY In September 2020, 0.49% Higher Than August 2020 Rate
9. States Generated N612.87bn as IGR in H1 2020 - NBS
10. All Region TOT Decreased by -0.79% in Q2 2020 Due to Weaker Trade With Europe, Africa and Asia

Q3 2020

1. 2,080 Road Traffic Crashes Occurred in Q2 2020 - NBS
2. 33,448,633MWh of Energy Generated in 2019 - NBS
3. FAAC Disburses N676.41bn in August 2020 - NBS
4. FAAC Disburses N696.18bn in July 2020 - NBS
5. Average Price of 1kg of Rice Increased By 40.69% YoY in August 2020 - NBS
6. Average Fare For Bus Journey Within City Increased By 12.70% MoM in August 2020 - NBS
7. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - August 2020
8. Headline Inflation Increases By 13.22% YoY In August 2020; 0.40% Higher Than July 2020 Rate
9. Nigeria's Total Public Debt Stood At N31.01trn in Q2 2020 - NBS
10. Banking Sector Records 2.16bn Volume of Transaction in Q2 2020 - NBS
11. FAAC Disburses N547.31bn in June 2020 - NBS
12. Nigeria's Merchandise Trade Falls Steeply in Q2 2020 Due to Sharp Drop in Exports
13. FAAC Disburses N606.19bn in May 2020 - NBS
14. Total Value of Capital Imported into Nigeria Stood At $1,294.94m in Q2 2020 - NBS
15. 612,547kg of Drugs Seized in 2019 - NBS
16. Nigeria's GDP Contracts by -6.10% YoY in Real Terms in Q2 2020 - NBS
17. Average Price of 1kg of Tomato Increased By 3.24% MoM in July 2020 - NBS
18. Average Fare Paid By Commuters for Motorcycle Journey Increased By 9.06% MoM in July 2020
19. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - July 2020
20. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.82% YoY In July 2020; 0.26% Higher Than June 2020 Rate
21. Nigeria's Unemployment Rate Moves Up to 27.1% in Q2 2020 from 23.1% in Q3 2018 - NBS
22. N651.77bn Generated as VAT in H1 2020 - NBS
23. Average Prices of 1kg of Tomato Increased By 30.25% YoY in June 2020 - NBS
24. Average Fare for Bus Journey Within City Increased By 3.36% MoM to N229.94 in June 2020 - NBS
25. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - June 2020
26. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.56% YoY In June 2020; 0.16% Higher Than May 2020 Rate
27. Nigeria's Total Public Debt Stood At N28.63trn in Q1 2020 - NBS
28. NBS Publishes National Living Standard Survey 2018-19 Report
29. Active Voice Subscription Grew By 2.48% in Q1 2020 - NBS

Q2 2020

1. 5.26bn Litres of PMS Imported Into Nigeria in Q1 2020 - NBS
2. All Commodity Group Import Index Decreased By 0.84% in Q1 2020
3. Average Price of 1kg of Rice Increased By 28.18% YoY in May 2020 - NBS
4. Average Fare Paid By Commuters for Bus Journey Within City Decreased By -0.56% MoM in May 2020 - NBS
5. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - May 2020
6. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.40% YoY In May 2020; 0.06% Higher Than April 2020 Rate
7. Nigeria's Merchandise Trade Slowed in Q1 2020 Due to Declines in Both Imports and Exports
8. 11,072 Road Traffic Crashes Occurred in 2019 - NBS
9. FAAC Disburses N780.93bn in April 2020 - NBS
10. FAAC Disburses N581.57bn in March 2020 - NBS
11. Average Price of 1kg of Rice Increased MoM By 7.56% in April 2020 - NBS
12. Average Air Passengers Fare Was Flat MoM in April 2020 - NBS
13. Total Value of Capital Importation into Nigeria Stood At $5,854.38m in Q1 2020 - NBS
14. Nigeria's GDP Grew By 1.87% YoY in Real Terms in Q1 2020
15. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - April 2020
16. N1.33trn Generated As IGR in 2019 - NBS
17. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.34% YoY In April 2020; 0.08% Higher Than March 2020 Rate
18. 20.89bn Litres of PMS Imported Into Nigeria in 2019 - NBS
19. N338.94bn Generated As VAT in Q1 2020 - NBS
20. Total Household Expenditure on Food and Non-food Was Put At N40.21bn in 2019 - NBS
21. Poverty and Inequality in Nigeria 2019: 40% of Total Population Classified as Poor
22. GDP By Income and Expenditure Approach Q4 2019 - Household Final Consumption Declined by -2.40%
23. Average Price of 1kg of Rice Increased By 21% YoY to N438.66 In March 2020
24. Average Transport Fare Paid By Commuters Within City Increased By 1.89% MoM in March 2020
25. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - March 2020
26. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.26% YoY In March 2020; 0.06% Higher Than February 2020 Rate
27. Nigeria's Total Public Debt Stood At N27.40trn in Q4 2019 - NBS
28. FAAC Disburses N647.35bn in February 2020 - NBS

Q1 2020

1. Banking Sector Records 893.68m Volume of Transaction in Q4 2019 - NBS
2. Active Voice Subscription Grew By 3.08% in Q4 2019 - NBS
 
3. All Commodity Group Import Index Fell by 3.27% Due Mainly to Declines in the Prices of Goods
4. Average Prices of 1kg of Tomato Decreased By -10.65% YoY to N237.22 in Jan 2020 - NBS
5. Average Fare Paid By Commuters For Bus Journey Intercity Increased By 0.91% MoM in February 2020
6. Average Prices Of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - February 2020
7. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.20% YoY In February 2020; 0.07% Higher Than January 2020 Rate
8. FAAC Disburses N716.30bn in January 2020 - NBS
9. FAAC Disburses N2.93trn to FG in 2019 - NBS
10. Total Value of Capital Imported in Q4 2019 Stood At $3,802.38m - NBS
11. FAAC Disburses N650.83bn in December 2019 - NBS
12. Nigeria's Merchandise Trade Grew in Q4 2019; Imports Rose Faster Exceeding Falling Exports
13. Nigeria's GDP Grew By 2.55% in Real Terms in Q4 2019 and 2.27% in Full Year 2019
14. Average Prices of 1kg of Tomato Decreased By -10.65% YoY to N237.22 in Jan 2020 - NBS
15. Average Prices Of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - January 2020
16. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.13% YoY In January 2020; 0.15% Higher Than December 2019 Rate
17. N293.80bn Generated as IGR in Q3 2019 - NBS
18. Nigeria's Total Public Debt Stood At N26.14trn in Q3 2019 - NBS
19. Average Intercity Fare Increases By 1.43% MoM To N1, 666.57 In December 2019
20. Average Price of 1kg of Tomato Decrease YoY by -2.80% To N263.90 In December 2019
21. All Commodity Group Index Grew By 2.48% in Q3 2019
22. Average Prices Of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas - December 2019
23. Headline Inflation Increases By 11.98% YoY In December 2019; 0.13% Higher Than November 2019 Rate