Merchandise Trade Grows in Q4 2016 - Records First Quarterly Positive Trade Balance Since Q4 2015

Saturday, March 04, 2017 10:03 AM / NBS 

Positive Trade Balance due to rising exports  

The total value of Nigeria’s merchandise trade at the end of Q4, 2016 was ₦5,286.6 billion. This was 10.6% more than the value of ₦4,781.1 billion recorded in the preceding quarter. Total export value for Q4 201[1]6 stood at ₦2,978.9billion, which was 28.3% more than the value of the previous quarter.  

Total import for Q4 2016 was ₦2,307.6billion, which represented a decrease of 6.1% with the value of the preceding quarter. The much faster rise in the value of exports relative to the rise in imports brought the Country’s trade balance to ₦671.3 billion during the review period, showing a stark improvement from the negative trade balance of -₦136.0 billion recorded in the preceding quarter (Table 1).  

This development stemmed from a rise of ₦656.3 billion or 28.3%, in the value of exports combined with a decline of ₦150.9 billion or 6.1%, in the value of imports against the levels recorded in the preceding quarter. The last time Nigeria recorded a positive trade balance was in Q4 2015. 

The year, accordingly, ended with a total trade for 2016 of N17,344.9 billion compared to N16,299.0 billion in 2015 and N23,678.4 billion in 2014. Total exports in 2016 stood N,8527.4 billion (N9,593.0 billion in 2015) while total imports stood at N8,817.5 billion (N6,697.9 billion in 2015) translating into and a negative trade balance for 2016 of -N290.1 billion compared to trade surplus of N2895.0 billion in 2015 and surplus of N8,929.6 billion in 2014 

Imports Classified by Standard International Trade Classification and Country of Origin  

Nigeria’s import trade stood at ₦2,307.6 billion at the end of Q4, 2016, showing a decrease of 6.1% from the value (₦2,458.6 billion) recorded in the preceding quarter.

For the full year, 2016, Nigeria’s import trade stood at N8,817.5 billion compared to N6,697.9 billion in 2015 and N7,374.3 billion in 2014. 

The structure of Nigeria’s import trade in Q4 2016, by section, was dominated by the imports of “Mineral products” which accounted for ₦724.0billion or 31.4% of the total value of import trade in Q4, 2016 (Table 2). Other commodities which contributed noticeably to the value of import trade during the review period were “Boilers, machinery and appliances; parts thereof” with ₦464.9billion or 20.1%, “Products of the chemical and allied industries” with ₦217.2billion or 9.4%, “Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco” with ₦148.5billion or 6.4% and “Base metals and articles of base metals” with ₦130.1billion or 5.6%.  

On the other hand, for the full year, 2016, Nigeria’s import trade value by section was dominated by the imports of machinery and transport equipment (30.97%), mineral fuel (28.58%), chemical and related product (12.61%) and food and live animals (11.99%) 

The import trade classified by broad economic category (Table 7), revealed that “Fuels and lubricants”, ranked first with ₦699.2 billion or 30.3% in Q4 2016.  (Further disaggregation of fuels and lubricants, reveals that motor spirit dominated fuel and lubricants imports with 20.2% or ₦469.2 billion, while other fuels and lubricants accounted for the balance of 9.9% in Q4 2016).  

Fuels and lubricant imports were followed by “Industrial Supplies” with the value of ₦549.5 billion or 23.8% (of which processed industrial supplies accounted for 22.7%), and “Capital Goods and parts” with ₦452.7 billion or 19.6% (of which capital products accounted for 14% and parts and accessories accounting for the remaining 5.6%), and food and beverage N 346.4 billion.  

Further disaggregation of food and beverage imports reveals that processed food accounted for N187.5 billion of which N115.1 was mainly for industry and the balance of N72.3 billion for household consumption. On the other hand, Primary food and beverage imports stood at N158.9 billion of which N87.8billion was for industry and N71.1billion for household consumption. 

For the full year, 2016, however, imports by broad economic category was also driven by fuels and lubricants N2,487.1 billion or 28.2% (of which motor spirit was 18.4%). This was followed by Industrial supplies with 22.7% (processed industrial supplies was 21.5%), capital goods and parts with22.4% (capital goods- 16.2% and parts and accessories- 6.2%) Food and Beverage with 12.8% of total imports and transport equipment and parts with 9.3% (of which passenger motor cars-1.9%, other transport equipment and parts-9.4%)  

Imports by Origin of Import   

Nigeria’s import trade by origin in Q4 2016 showed that the Country imported goods mostly from China, Belgium, Netherlands, the United States and India, which respectively accounted for ₦404.1 billion or 17.5%, ₦356.4 billion or 15.4%, ₦230.0 billion or 10.0%, ₦205.6 billion or 8.9%, and ₦113.9 billion 4.9% of the total value of goods imported during the quarter.  

Further analysis of Nigeria’s imports by Continent in Q4 2016, revealed that the country consumed goods largely from Europe with import value of ₦1,127.9 billion or 48.9%. The Country also imported goods valued at ₦761.9 billion or 33.0% from Asia and ₦312.8 billion or 13.6 % from the Americas. Import trade from Africa stood at ₦82.7 billion or 3.6% while imports from the region of ECOWAS amounted to ₦15.1 billion (Table 4).   

For full year 2016, Nigeria imported mostly from China with 19.7% of total imports followed by the Netherlands (11.7%) then the USA (8.0%). With respect to Import by continent, Nigeria imported the most from Europe (46.7%) then Asia (35.8%) and the Americas (12.2%). Nigerian imports from Africa stood at 4.1% of total imports in 2016, with imports from within ECOWAS at 1.2%. 

Exports Classified by Standard International Trade Classification and Country of Destination   

The value of the export trade, totalled ₦2,978.9 billion in Q4, 2016 showing an increase of ₦656.3 billion or 28.3%, over the value recorded in the preceding quarter. The structure of the export trade is still dominated by crude oil exports, which contributed ₦2,425.4 billion or 81.4% to the value of total domestic export trade in Q4 2016. The percentage of crude exports to total exports in Q4 2016 thereby decreased to 81.4.0% in Q4 2016 from 84.3% in Q3 2016 but increased when compared to Q4 2015 when it accounted for 79.3% in Q4 2015 

For 2016 as a whole, total exports amounted to N8,527.4 billion compared to N9,593.0 in 2015 and N16,304.0 billion in 2014. Crude oil exports for the whole of 2016 stood at N6,996.5 billion compared to N6,809.5 billion in 2015 and N11,891.1 billion in 2014. Within the same period, non-crude exports stood at N1,530.8 billion compared to N2,783.5 billion in 2015 and N4,412.8 billion in 2014. The percentage of crude exports to total exports thereby increased to 82.0% in 2016 from 71.0% in 2015 and 72.9% in 2014 

Exports by section in Q4 2016 revealed that Nigeria exported mainly mineral products, which accounted for ₦2,872.7 billion or 96.4% of the total export value. Other products exported by Nigeria include “Prepared foodstuffs; beverages spirits and vinegar; tobacco” at ₦50.8 billion or 1.7%, and “Products of the chemical and allied industries” at ₦18.7 billion or 0.6%.  

For the full year, Nigeria’s exports by section followed a similar trend as in Q4 2016 with exports of mineral products dominating with 96.6% followed by prepared foodstuff, spirits, beverages vinegar and tobacco (1.5%) and vegetable products (0.5%). 

Exports by Destination of Export   

The export by direction showed that the country exported goods mainly to India, Netherlands, the United States, Spain and South Africa, whose values stood at ₦475.6 billion or 16.0%, ₦334.2 billion or 11.2%, ₦317.2 billion or 10.6%, ₦286.8 billion or 9.6%, and ₦160.4 billion or 5.4% respectively in Q4 2016. Natural liquefied gas recorded ₦351.4 billion of the total export value during the period under review.  

Export by continent in Q4 2016, showed that Nigeria mainly exported goods to Europe and Asia, which accounted for ₦1,210.8 billion or 40.6% and ₦884.1 billion or 29.7% respectively, of the total export value during the period under review. Furthermore, Nigeria exported goods valued at ₦463.5 billion or 15.6% to the continent of Africa while export to the ECOWAS region totalled ₦230.6 billion (Table 5). 

For the year 2016 as a whole, Nigeria exported mostly to India (18.0%), USA (12.1%) and Spain (9.2%) and with respect to continent to Europe (36.0%), Asia (29.7%) and the Americas (19.4%). Exports from Nigeria to Africa in 2016 accounted for 14.6% of total exports with the ECOWAS region accounting for 6.8%.