Headline Inflation Increases by 16.47% YoY in January 2021 for the 17th Consecutive Month


Monday, February 22, 2021 / 5:01PM / PFI Capital Header Image Credit: Getty Images


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The most recent figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics show a rise in the inflation rate for the 17th consecutive month. On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.49 percent in January 2021. This is 0.12 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in December 2020 (1.61 percent).


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Food inflation rose from 19.56% in December 2020 to 20.57%, on a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.83 percent in January 2021, down by 0.22 percent points from 2.05 percent recorded in December 2020. The ''All items less farm produce'' or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 11.85 percent in January 2021, up by 0.48 percent when compared with 11.37 percent recorded in December 2020. On a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.26 percent in January 2021.


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This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, potatoes, yam, and other tubers, meat, fruits, vegetables, fish, and oils and fats.


The highest increases in the components of core inflation were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Medical services, Hospital services, Passenger transport by road, Pharmaceutical products, Paramedical services, Repair of furniture, Vehicle spare parts, Motor cars, Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling, Maintenance, and repair of personal transport equipment.

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In January 2021, Headline inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Kogi (21.38%), Oyo (20.17%), and Bauchi (19.52%), while Kwara (13.96%), Abuja (12.96%), and Cross River (12.22%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation. On a month-on-month basis, however, in January 2021 all items inflation was highest in Oyo (4.28%), Ebonyi (3.95%), and Lagos (3.33%), while Abuja, Edo, and Cross River recorded price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).


In January 2021, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi (26.64%), Oyo (23.69%), and River (23.49%), while Ondo (17.20%), Abuja (16.73%), and Bauchi (16.37%) recorded the slowest rise. On a month-on-month basis, however, January 2021 food inflation was highest in Oyo (4.47%), Lagos (3.86%), and River (3.11%), while Akwa Ibom (0.25%) and Bayelsa (0.13%) recorded the slowest rise with Edo recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of food or a negative food inflation rate).


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Previous Report from PFI Capital

1.       August PMI Shows Economic Activities Still in Contraction Amid Slow Recovery - PFI Capital

2.      Nigeria Nears Recession with 6.1% Contraction in Q2-2020 - PFI Capital

3.      Food Price Pressure Stokes Inflation to 28-month High in July - PFI Capital

4.      Unemployment Heads for New-High - PFI Capital Limited

5.      Nigeria's COVID-19 Induced Foreign Trade Decline - PFI Capital

6.      Inflationary Pressure Likely to Decelerate in July - PFI Capital Limited

7.      Implications of CBN's Exchange Rate Unification - PFI Capital Limited

8.     Nigeria's Debt Profile on a Rise - PFI Capital Limited

9.      A More than Expected Slowdown in Global Growth - PFI Capital

10.  Nigeria's Double-Whammy: Inflation and Unemployment - PFI Capital

11.   Performance Review of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan - PFI Capital

12.  Implications of Nigeria's Consumption Expenditure Pattern - PFI Capital Limited

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