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Headline Inflation Drops to 15.37% in December 2017; 0.53% Lower Than 15.90% November Rate

Nigeria Economy	5190 VIEWS
Nigeria Economy
5190 VIEWS

Tuesday, January 16, 2018 /09:00AM / NBS

All Item Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation ended the year 2017 with a rate of 15.37 percent (year-on-year) in December 2017. This was 0.53 percent points lower than the rate recorded in November (15.90 percent) making it the eleventh consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year on year inflation since January 2017

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yield the Headline Index.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.59 percent in December 2017, 0.19 percent points higher from the rate of 0.78 percent recorded in November.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve month period ending in December 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve month period was 16.50 percent, showing 0.26 percent point lower from 16.76 percent recorded in November 2017.

The Urban inflation rate rose by 15.78 percent (year-on-year) in December from 16.27 percent recorded in November, while the Rural inflation rate also eased by 15.02 percent in December from 15.59 percent in November.

On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.66 percent in December, down by 0.19 from 0.85 percent recorded in November, while the rural index rose by 0.54 percent in December, down by 0.18 when compared with 0.72 percent in November.

The corresponding twelve month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 16.92 percent in December. This is less than 17.26 percent reported in November 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in December is 16.10 percent compared to 16.29 percent recorded in November 2017.

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Food Index
High year on year food prices and food price pressure continued into December though consistently at a slower pace month on month and at a slower pace year on year. The Food Index increased by 19.42 percent (year-on-year) in December, down from the rate recorded in November (20.30 percent).

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.58 percent in December, down by 0.30 percent from 0.88 percent recorded in November. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in December 2017 over the previous twelve month average was 19.55 percent, 0.16 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in November (19.39) percent.

The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, coffee tea and cocoa, milk cheese and eggs, fish and oils and fats.

All Items Less Farm Produce/Core Inflation
The ‘’All Items less Farm Produce’’ or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural, stood during the month of December at 12.10 percent points, down from 12.20 percent recorded in November as all key divisions which contributes to the index increased.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub-index increased by 0.51 percent in December, higher from 0.78 percent recorded in November.

The average 12 month annual rate of change of the index was 13.46 percent for the twelve-month period ending in December 2017; this is 0.47 percent points lower than 13.93 percent recorded in November.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment, solid fuels, passenger transport by air, clothing materials and other articles of clothing, Vehicle spare parts, non-durable goods, furniture and furnishing, carpet and other floor coverings, shoes and other footwear, bicycles and motor cycles, hospital services and glassware, table and household utensils and appliances

State Profiles
In analyzing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from State to State making inter State comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading

All Items Inflation
In December 2017, all items inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Bauchi (21.92%), Nasarawa (18.16%) and Kebbi (18.67%), while Kogi (10.03%), Delta States (12.61%) and Benue (13.35%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On a month on month basis however, November 2017 all items inflation was highest in Edo (1.48%), Yobe (1.34%) and Kebbi (1.27%), while Kogi(-0.96%), Bauchi(-0.67%), Nasarawa (-0.40%), Kwara(-0.37%), Ebonyi(-0.30%) and Sokoto (-0.05%) recorded price deflation on a month on month all item basis in December 2017

Food Inflation
In December 2017, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kwara (24.46%), Nasarawa (22.77%) and Yobe (22.60%), while Kogi, Bauchi and Benue recorded the slowest rise in food inflation.

On a month on month basis however, December 2017 food inflation was highest in Edo (1.90%), Niger(1.76%) and Akwa Ibom (1.76%), while Kogi, Kwara, Ebonyi, Jigawa, Abia, Nasarawa, Sokoto, Gombe, Borno, Benue, Oyo, Kaduna, and Abuja all recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in December 2017.