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Headline Inflation Drops to 15.13% in January 2018; 0.24% Lower Than 15.37% December Rate

Nigeria Economy	5734 VIEWS
Nigeria Economy
5734 VIEWS

Wednesday, February 14, 2018 /09:00 AM / NBS

All Item Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation started the year 2018 increasing by 15.13 percent (year-on-year) in January 2018. This was 0.24 percent points lower than the rate recorded in December (15.37 percent) making it the twelfth consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year on year inflation since January 2017

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yield the Headline Index.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.80 percent in January 2018, 0.21 percent points higher from the rate of 0.59 percent recorded in December 2017.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending January 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 16.22 percent, showing 0.28 percent point lower from 16.50 percent recorded in December 2017.

The Urban inflation rate rose by 15.56 percent (year-on-year) in January 2018 from 16.78 percent recorded in December 2017, while the Rural inflation rate also eased by 14.76 percent in January 2018 from 15.02 percent in December 2017.

On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.83 percent in January 2018, up by 0.17 from 0.66 percent recorded in December 2017, while the rural index also rose by 0.77 percent in January 2018, up by 0.23 when compared with 0.54 percent in December 2017.

The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 16.55 percent in January 2018. This is less than 16.92 percent reported in December 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in January 2018 is 15.89 percent compared to 16.10 percent recorded in December 2017.

Food Index

High year on year food prices and food price pressure continued into December though generally at a slower pace year on year.

The Food Index increased by 18.92 percent (year-on-year) in January 2017, down from the rate recorded in December (19.42 percent).

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.87 percent in January 2018, down by 0.29 percent from 0.58 percent recorded in December.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending January 2018 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.62 percent, 0.07 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2017 (19.55) percent.

The rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of imported food in general as well as bread and cereals, milk, cheese and eggs, Vegetables, Fish, Coffee tea and cocoa, meat, Potatoes yam and other tubers and Oil and fats.

All Items Less Farm Produce/Core Inflation

The ‘’All Items Less Farm Produce’’ or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural, stood during the month of January 2018 at 12.10 percent points, similar to rate recorded in December 2017.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub-index increased by 0.68 percent in January 2018, higher from 0.51 percent recorded in December.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 13.01 percent for the twelve-month period ending January 2018; this is 0.45 percent points lower than 13.46 percent recorded in December 2017.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of Fuel and lubricants for personal transport and transport equipment, Vehicle spare parts, Accommodation services, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Appliances articles and products for personal care, hotels and restaurants, Hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, clothing materials and other articles of clothing, garments, non-durable household goods and solid fuels.

State Profiles

In analyzing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from State to State making inter State comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading

All Items Inflation

In January 2018, all items inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kebbi (18.55%), Nasarawa (18.49%) and Bauchi (18.01%), while Delta (12.77%), Kogi States (13.28%) and Anambra (13.34%) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On a month on month basis however, January 2018 all items inflation was highest in Kogi (2.72%), Bayelsa (2.39%) and Sokoto (1.68%), while Kebbi, Bauchi and Cross River recorded price deflation on a month on month all item basis in January 2018

Food Inflation

In January 2018, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kwara (24.46%), Nasarawa (22.77%) and Bayelsa (22.60%), while Bauchi (13.34%), Anambra (14.63%) and Benue (14.78% recorded the slowest rise in food inflation.

On a month on month basis however, January 2018 food inflation was highest in Bayela (3.47%), Kogi (3.38%) and Nasarawa (2.26%), while Cross River, Kebbi. Yobe, Anambra and Delta all recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in January 2018.

Click Here to Download January 2018 CPI (PDF) Report