Gauging the Health of the Household


Friday, January 05 2018/ 04:38PM / Proshare Research

Fig 1:  Micro Variables 
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Rising state of discomfort in the labour force, as unemployment take an upward trajectory from 16.2% in Q2 2017 to 18.8% Q3 2017. Thus the rise in unemployment coupled with 4 million job losses in 2017, is an upside risk to consumption. 

Misery index
The misery index is the measure of well- being of the household in an economy. The sustained rise in the misery index from 52.5% to 55.9%, Thereby reflects a bolstering in misery index.  At such validating the position the position of a rising 

Per capital income
Per capital income has fallen from $2820 to $2,450, underlining the weakness in house hold income level across board. It is expected that disposable income of individuals have been depressed given the fall in per capital income 

Government Budget per person
The government budget per person rose by 15% from $88 in 2017 to $118, in 2018. However the rise in both debt and population leaves net government expenditure per person flat in 2018. At the same time indicative of the unlikelihood of a 2% increase in per capital income in 2018.  

Moving Forward
Consumer confidence for the first time in 2 years is positive from -10 in Q4 2017 to 1 in Q1 2018 largely due to improvement in the exchange rate and gradually thinning out of inflation.  Thus consumers are positive on 2018.

  We must take into consideration that the previous years do have low micro variables base, the positive outlook will not address poverty. If a 2% growth in per capital income is not achieved.    

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