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GDP By Income and Expenditure Approach Q1 2019 - Household Final Consumption Exp. Grew by 1.41%

Nigeria Economy	2264 VIEWS
Nigeria Economy
2264 VIEWS

Wednesday, October 16, 2019 01:00PM / NBS

Summary

In the third and fourth quarters of 2018, Nigeria's real GDP at basic prices grew by 1.81 % and 2.38% year on year respectively. The annual real GDP in 2018 grew by 1.91%, which was more than double the growth rate recorded in 2017 which stood at 0.82%. In the first quarter of 2019, real GDP grew by 2.10% indicating a faster pace of expansion on a quarterly basis. It is, however, worth noting that this period also coincided with the campaign and general elections season which may have supported the observed developments. When compared with the corresponding quarters of 2017, real GDP rose by 0.64% points and 0.27% points respectively in Q3 and Q4 2018, and by 0.21% in Q1 2019.

Household Consumption Expenditure, in Q3 and Q4 grew at 7.90% and 9.26% in real terms, year on year, but slowed to 1.41% during the first quarter of 2019. Government Consumption Expenditure continued to show improvement as growth was 34.78% in the third quarter and 68.48% in the fourth quarter of 2018, though its pace slowed significantly to 2.71% by the first quarter of 2019.

Net Exports recorded negative growth, at -24.52% and -28.20% in real terms in the third and fourth quarters of 2018. In the first quarter of 2019, this moderated to -5.83% year on year compared to 2.99% in the corresponding period of 2018. On an annual basis, net exports in 2018 was 17.45% lower than the preceding year.

National Disposable Income slowed by -2.76% in the third quarter of 2018 but rose by 0.50% in the fourth quarter, in real terms year on year. In Q1 2019, it grew 6.58% in whi ch was higher than 0.21% recorded in Q1 2018.

Compensation of Employees, during the third and fourth quarters of 2018, grew 11.59% and 8.12% respectively in real terms on year on year basis. In Q1 2019, the growth rate slowed to 3.85% compared to 14.54% in Q1 2018.

Real Year-on-year Growth Rates of Key Aggregates (percent, %)*
	2018					2019
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total	Q1
GDP (basic price)	1.89	1.50	1.81	2.38	1.91	2.10
GDP (Market price)	1.98	1.46	1.76	2.43	1.92	2.06
Household Consumption	(0.25)	0.98	7.90	9.26	4.63	1.41
Gov. Cons. Expenditures	30.34	29.57	34.78	68.48	39.85	2.71
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	0.20	7.36	20.65	12.24	9.74	13.82
Net Exports	2.99	(8.89)	(24.52)	(28.20)	(17.45)	(5.83)


National Disposable Income	0.21	(2.01)	(2.76)	0.50	(1.03)	6.58
Compensation of Employees	14.54	15.33	11.59	8.12	12.22	3.85
Operating Surplus	(2.49)	(3.44)	(1.06)	0.70	(1.48)	1.83
Other Current Transfers from RoW Net	(7.60)	(22.89)	(26.20)	(11.98)	(17.99)	41.44

Summary-analysis of expenditure components

The graph below depicts the proportions of real GDP expenditure components from 2016 to Q1 2019, as well as real GDP growth rates over the same period.

Household Consumption contributed the largest share to real Gross Domestic Product, accounting for 60.53% in Q3 2018, from 57.09% in Q3 of 2017, and 62.17% in Q4 2018 compared to 58.29% in the corresponding quarter of 2017. It accounted for 59.94% in Q1 2019, slightly lower than the 60.32% recorded in Q1 2018. While NPISH contributed less than 1% over the period, its contribution fell from 0.31% in Q3 of 2017 to 0.22% in Q3 of 2018, but improved to 0.40% in Q4 2018 from 0.38% it contributed in the corresponding quarter of 2017. General Government Consumption accounted for 5.07% and 5.33% in Q3 and Q4 of 2018 respectively. In 2019 Q1, there was a slight improvement compared to Q1 2018 of 5.58%. However, contributions of Net Exports for Q3 and Q4 of 2018 were 19.38% and 16.82% respectively, the rates recorded in the corresponding quarters of the previous year were higher.

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