Nigeria Economy | |
Nigeria Economy | |
2177 VIEWS | |
![]() |
Thursday, June 18,
2020 / 06:00 AM / by Proshare Content/ Header Image
Credit: EcoGraphics
Introduction
The emergence of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has worsened Nigeria's
fiscal sustainability. The economy has been plagued by high unemployment,
rising inflation rates and low real GDP growth.
Table 17: NCDC
Disease Outbreak figures- A Cache of Distress
The virus revealed the dire need for restructuring and revitalizing of
Nigeria's health care infrastructure, as well as the need for unconventional
economic policies to properly position the Nigerian economy for the aftermath
of the COVID-19 virus.
Illustration 8:
Coronavirus, Into the Abyss - A Helicopter View
The spread of the pandemic coronavirus has affected
the global oil market, commodity market, stock market and the global economy.
The Nigerian economy is primarily hinged on oil export revenue making it
susceptible to global shocks. Since it's recovery from the recession in 2017,
the Nigerian economy has been experiencing slow growth with the population
growth rate outmatching the growth of the economy. If the outbreak of the
pandemic coronavirus persist, it will further worsen Nigeria's fragile economy
and might eventually cause the economy to go into a recession.
Illustration 9:
Coronavirus and the Nigeria Economy
Like other developed and developing economies, the coronavirus will most likely impact the Nigerian GDP negatively. In the first quarter of 2020, the Nigerian economy recorded a slow growth of +1.87%, (year-on-year) in real terms, the performance was recorded against the backdrop of significant global disruptions resulting from health crisis, a sharp fall in oil prices and restricted international trade. The performance recorded in Q1 2020 represents a drop of -0.23% points compared to Q1 2019 and -0.68% points compared to Q4 2019, reflecting the earliest effects of the disruption in economic activities caused by the pandemic coronavirus (see Chart 31).
Chart 31: GDP
Growth Rate (%)
Source: NBS, Proshare Research
The Nigerian government has embarked on various policies such as the
restrictions in interstate and foreign travels, restrictions in the movement of
people in major cities such as Lagos state, Ogun state and the Federal Capital
Territory. The temporary lockdown of the Nigerian economy designed to mitigate
the spread of the virus has its benefits as well as its cost. Some of the costs
of lockdown include the increase in crime rate, hunger and starvation, loss in
revenue for companies and the government while the major benefit of the
lockdown is that it helps to curtail the further spread of the virus (see illustrations 10 and 11 below).
Illustration 10: Scenario Analysis of Effects Easing and Lockdown on
Businesses
Illustration 11: Scenario Analysis of Effects Easing and Lockdown on Businesses
Illustration 12:
Scenarios for the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis
Illustration 13: Post COVID-19
Scenarios
Illustration 14: Post
Covid-19 Scenarios
Related Reports (PDF)
1. Download the Full PDF Report - Coronanomics and the Nigerian Economy, June 06, 2020
2. Executive Summary PDF - Proshare, June 06, 2020
Related News
1.
Coronanomics (11) - Fighting A Virus - Africa's Equity
Market
2.
Coronanomics (10) - Impact on the Travel and Tourism Sector
3.
Coronanomics (9) - China, US-Africa Bilateral Trade Data -
Changing Partners
4.
Coronanomics (8) - African Economies - An Emerging Market Fight Back
5.
Coronanomics (7) - Global Policy Responses Against the
Negative Impact of COVID-19
6.
Coronanomics (6) - Global Stock Market - Top 3 Decliners
Dipped By 0ver 26% YTD
7.
Coronanomics (5) - Global Oil Market - Spinning Around A
Vortex
8.
Coronanomics (4) - Chinese Economy and The Rest of the
World
9.
Coronanomics (3) - The Global Economy Spinning on a
Wishing Wheel
10. Coronanomics (2) - Easing Out of a Crisis
11.
Coronanomics (1) - Understanding the Realities of an
Impending Recession
Related Links and References
Related News - Opinions & Analysis
Related News - Reviews and Outlooks
Related News - Nigeria Economy
1. COVID-19 and the Construction Sector
2. The Lockdown - Food Scarcity and Social Unrest Looming
3. April 2020 Headline Inflation Will Cross 13.0% - FDC
4. Nigerian Economic Update: A Throw of the Dice
5. Guidelines and Recommendations: Reopening the Nigerian Economy
6. GDP By Income and Expenditure Approach Q4 2019 - Household Final Consumption Declined by -2.40%
7. Ahead of Tomorrow on WebTV: Discussions on COVID-19; Reinventing Nigeria's Economy
8. Nigeria Weekly Update: Short and Long Currency Cycles
9. Nigeria Needs A National Strategy To Integrate Factor Endowment Into A Plan - Prof. Utomi
10. A Surprising Boost to the FAAC Payout; April Payment Amount to N781bn
11. Ahead of Tomorrow on WebTV: Discussions on Repositioning Nigeria's Economy Beyond COVID-19
12. Impact of Privatization on Nigeria's Economy
13. Can Africa Afford COVID-19 Lockdowns? - Chukwuma Soludo
14. COVID-19; Nigeria Needs To Relax Foreign Exchange Management To Boost Industrialization - Dr. Yusuf
15. Nigeria's Economy After Oil: How Should We Prepare?
16. The Disruptive Impact of COVID-19
17. Nigeria's Impending Recession
18. Roadmap to Rebooting Nigeria's Economy from COVID-19
19. Coronation Weekly: Interest Rate Conundrum
20. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.26% YoY In March 2020; 0.06% Higher Than February 2020 Rate
21. Ahead of Tomorrow On WebTV: COVID-19 and The Strategic Implications to Business Planning
22. #Coronanomics: The Changing Scale of Edtech, Healthtech, and Virtual Work Space In Nigeria
Related Reports/Articles
1. COVID-19 and AGM by Proxy: Lessons from GTBank Approach
2. #Coronanomics: How Tech Businesses Can Sustain Productivity
3. The End of an Epoch: A New Beginning for Capital Markets in the 21st Century - Bruce Fenton
4. Nigeria's Post COVID-19 Economic Outlook - Economics Associates
5. Which Emerging Markets Are in Most Financial Peril?
6. Global Monthly - World Bank Group
7. World Economic Outlook 2020 - The Great Lockdown
8. COVID-19: Economic, Tax and Other Fiscal Stimulus Measures in Nigeria
9. COVID-19: Crisis And Opportunity
10. COVID-19: Nigeria Economic Impact and Implications for CPG - McKinsey and Company
11. The Economics of a Pandemic: The Case of COVID-19 - London Business School
12. The Impact of The COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria - UNDP Nigeria
Coronanomics Discourse-WebTV Videos
2. COVID-19: Time For Nigeria To Diversify Its Revenue Base Through Agro, ICT - Ayuli Jemide
3. Post COVID-19: Nigeria Must Prioritize Agro and Manufacturing, To Drive Productivity - Ray Echebiri
4. Post COVID-19: States Should Rethink Their Economic Models To Drive Productivity - Teslim Shitta-Bey
5. Economy & Politics: Nigeria Needs a Post COVID 19 Long-Term Plan - Boason Omofaye
7. Economy and Politics: How Nigeria Can Address Its External Illiquidity - Ayo Teriba
8. Economy and Politics: Nigeria Must Deregulate Its Petroleum Sector Post COVID 19 - Boniface Chizea
14. Market Review: States Need Integrated Economic Policies Post COVID 19 - Teslim Shittabey
17. Market Review: Nigeria Needs a Robust Regulatory Framework for Virtual AGMs - Bayo Olugbemi
18. Market Review: Nigeria Must Deploy Data to Effectively Mitigate COVID 19 Risks - Babajide Ogunsanwo
20. Market Review: Deregulation of Downstream Sector, Way Forward for Nigeria - Olugbenga Odusanya
21. Economy and Politics: CBN Should Reduce the CRR and MPR - Marcel Okeke
23. Market Review: COVID 19, An Opportunity for Companies to be Empathetic to Consumers - Lampe Omoyele
24. Economy and Politics: Nigeria must Drive a Harmonized Tax Plan Post COVID 19 - Taiwo Oyedele
28. Economy and Politics: Why Nigeria Should Explore a N20trn Development Bond - Tope Fasua
29. Market Review: Nigeria Needs More Project Based Funds to Attract Investments - Ebo Ayodeji
32. Nigeria Needs to Align its National Database to Deepen Social Investments - Laoye Jaiyeola
33. Post COVID 19: Time for Nigeria to Restructure its Fiscal Framework - Zeal Akaraiwe