Wednesday, August 31, 2016 9:51am /NBS
All Items Index
In July the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 17.1% (year-on-year), 0.6% points higher from the rate recorded in June (16.5%). Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions which contribute to the Headline index reflecting higher prices across the economy. The pace of the increase in the headline index was however weighed upon by a slower increase in three divisions; Health, Transport, and Recreation & Culture divisions.
The onset of the harvest season is yet to have a significant impact on food prices as the Food Sub-index increased by 15.8% (year-on-year) in July, 0.5% points lower from rates recorded in June. Prices however increased at a slower pace across a few groups within the Food sub-index namely Milk, Cheese and Eggs; Oils and Fats; and Fruits. In addition, imported foods as reflected by the Imported Food Sub-index increased by 0.4% points from June to 20.5% in July.
Energy and energy related prices continue to be the largest increases reflected in the Core sub-index. In July, the Core sub-index increased by 16.9% during the month, up by 0.7% points from rates recorded in June (16.2%). During the month, the highest increases were seen in the Electricity, Liquid Fuel (kerosene), Solid Fuels, and “Fuels and Lubricants for Personal Transport Equipment” groups.
Month-on-month, the Headline index increased albeit, at a slower pace for the second consecutive month in July. The index increased by 1.3% in July, 0.4% points from 1.7% recorded in June.
Year on year, both the Urban and Rural indices increased at a faster pace in July for the sixth consecutive month. The Urban index increased by 0.8% points from 18.1% in June to 18.9% in July, while the Rural Index increased by roughly 0.4% points from 15.1% in June to 15.5% in July.
On a month-on-month basis, both the Urban and Rural indices increased at a slower pace for the second consecutive month in July. The Urban index increased by 1.3% during the month, roughly 40 basis points lower from 1.8% in June.
In addition, the Rural index increased by 1.1% in July, 50 basis points lower from 1.6% in June. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in July 2016 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 12.0%, roughly 0.7% points higher from 11.4% recorded in June.
The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the Urban index increased from 11.9% in June to 12.8% in July, while the corresponding Rural index also increased from 10.9% in June to 11.4% in July.
The Food index increased by 15.8% (year-on-year) in July, 0.5% points from 15.3% recorded in June. The index was supported by a faster increase in the Bread and Cereals, Meats and Fish groups, amongst others. On a month on month basis, the Food sub-index increased at a slower rate for the second consecutive month. The index increased by 1.2% in July, 20 basis points lower from 1.4% in June.
On a month-on-month basis, the highest price increases were recorded in the Fish, Potatoes, Yams and Other tubers; and Bread and Cereals groups. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in July 2016 over the previous twelve month average was 12.2%, 0.5% points from the average annual rate of change recorded in June (11.7%).
All Items Less Farm Produce
Energy prices as well other imported items (such as Vehicle Spare Parts) continue to be key contributors to movements in the Core index. The “All items less Farm Produce” or Core sub-index increased by 16.9% in July (year-on-year), up approximately by 0.7% points from 16.2% recorded in June.
On a month-on-month basis, after a brief uptick in May, the rate of increases in the Core sub-index continued to slow for the second consecutive month in July.
The index increased by 1.2%, lower by 0.6% points from rates recorded in June. In July, on a month-on-month basis, the highest price increases were recorded Electricity, Solid Fuels, and Fuels and Lubricants for Personal Transport Equipment groups amongst others.
The average twelve month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 11.6% for the twelve-month period ending in July 2016, roughly 0.7% points higher from the twelve month rate of change recorded in June (10.9%).
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6. CBN Communiqué No. 108 of the MPC Meeting – July 25-26, 2016
7. Personal Statement of Members at the 107 MPC Meeting of May 23-24, 2016
8. Facing Policy Dilemma - MPC Considerations and Policy Options
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10. CBN Communiqué No. 107 of the MPC Meeting – May 23-24, 2016
11. Personal Statements of MPC Members Reflect Inflation Pressure as Structural
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13. With Inflation at 16.5%,Nigeria Stumbles into the Reform Path-LBS Executive Breakfast Session Jul'16
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