Another Rise in Inflation Driven by Food Prices

Proshare

Friday, October 16, 2020  10:59 AM / by FBNQuest Research / Header Image Credit: Bloomberg

 

Headline inflation accelerated again in September to 13.71% y/y from 13.22% the previous month. (Our expectation, shared with the newswires, was a little changed rate of 13.30% with a positive harvest impact.) Food price inflation quickened from 16.00% y/y to 16.66%. The core (non-food) measure ticked up from 10.52% y/y to 10.58% according to the NBS report.

                                                                                             

The report shows m/m increases of 1.2% for both the transport and health components of the basket, compared with 0.9% for the core measure. The bureau's commentary singles out above-average price increases for several items that reflect the impact of life with Covid-19, including medical and hospital services, pharmaceuticals, and passenger transport.

 

Anecdotal evidence points to positives from the main harvest in the next report (for October). Such were outweighed in the current report by the usual constraints (insecurity, herder/farmer clashes and poor roads to market). That food price inflation has accelerated beyond the measure for imported food (see chart) points to the scale of these constraints.

 

Consumer price inflation (% chg y/y)

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

 

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); FBNQuest Research

 

The NBS reports include data by state. The headline rate in September was highest in Bauchi at 3.4% m/m and lowest in Ondo at 0.3%. The bureau cautions that the basket varies from state to state.

 

This latest increase makes further monetary easing less likely.

 

Our call is that the headline rate will be a little lower in October due to a modest harvest impact, at 13.4% y/y.


Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.


Related News

  1. Persisting Food Pressure Pushes Headline Inflation to 13.71% YoY
  2. Headline Inflation Increases By 13.71% YoY In September 2020, 0.49% Higher Than August 2020 Rate
  3. Inflationary Pressure Still Squeezing Pockets
  4. Headline Inflation to Remain Stubbornly High in Q4'20
  5. Headline Inflation Climbed to a 29-month High of 13.22% in August 2020
  6. Headline Inflation Increases By 13.22% YoY In August 2020; 0.40% Higher Than July 2020 Rate
  7. Headline Inflation to Creep Up to 12.95%
  8. Food Price Pressure Stokes Inflation to 28-month High in July - PFI Capital
  9. Headline Rate Will Remain Unchanged at 12.8% YoY in August 2020 - FBNQuest
  10. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.82% YoY In July 2020; 0.26% Higher Than June 2020 Rate
  11. Headline Inflation Fast Approaching the 13.0% Threshold Due to Cost Push Factors
  12. Inflationary Pressure Likely to Decelerate in July - PFI Capital Limited
  13. Headline Inflation Crosses the 12.5% Threshold in June 2020
  14. Inflation Spikes Amid Rising Coronavirus Cases; Understanding The Numbers
  15. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.56% YoY In June 2020; 0.16% Higher Than May 2020 Rate
  16. Headline Inflation to Increase to 12.55%, Monthly Inflation to Dip in June 2020
  17. Headline Inflation Inched Up By 0.06% As Monthly Inflation Spikes
  18. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.40% YoY In May 2020; 0.06% Higher Than April 2020 Rate
  19. Annual Inflation to Increase Again Towards 12.50% as Monthly Inflation Jumps to 15.73%
  20. Inflationary Pressure, Weakening Pockets
  21. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.34% YoY In April 2020; 0.08% Higher Than March 2020 Rate
  22. April 2020 Headline Inflation Will Cross 13.0% - FDC
  23. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.26% YoY In March 2020; 0.06% Higher Than February 2020 Rate
  24. Nigeria's Economy Under Strain As Inflation Rate Rises
  25. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.20% YoY In February 2020; 0.07% Higher Than January 2020 Rate
  26. Headline Inflation Rate to Increase to 12.37% in February 2020 from 12.13% Reported in January 2020
  27. Inflation to Spike Again to 12.30%
  28. Headline Inflation Crosses The 12% Threshold
  29. Electricity Tariff Hike Could Awaken The "Sleeping Core Giant"
  30. Headline Inflation Increases By 12.13% YoY In January 2020; 0.15% Higher Than December 2019 Rate
  31. Inflation Will Cross the 12% Threshold; Pace of Increase to Slow Significantly
  32. Headline Inflation Creeps Up To 11.98% In December 2019
  33. Headline Inflation Increases By 11.98% YoY In December 2019; 0.13% Higher Than November 2019 Rate
  34. Headline Inflation Projected to Increase by 0.25% to 12.10% in December 2019
  35. Inflationary Pressure, Impacting Wallets
  36. Why is Inflation increasing?
  37. The Nigerian Economy And Prospects in 2020
  38. Inflation - What Goes Up Will Go Up Again
  39. Headline Inflation Increases By 11.85% YoY In November 2019; 0.24% Higher Than October 2019 Rate
  40. Inflation, Rolling With The Punches
  41. Headline Inflation Up Again, Puts The MPC On The Spot
  42. Headline Inflation Increases By 11.61% YoY In October 2019; 0.36% Higher Than September 2019 Rate
  43. Inflation Rate To Tick Up By 0.08% In October 2019
  44. Inflation Succumbs to Border Closure and Money Supply Growth - Spikes to 11.24%
  45. Headline Inflation Increases By 11.24% YoY In September 2019; 0.22% Higher Than August 2019 Rate
  46. Unlocking Liquidity in Nigeria - Ayo Teriba
  47. Foreign Direct Investment To Africa Remained Steady In 2018
  48. Inflation Set to Buck its Declining Trend

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.

Proshare Nigeria Pvt. Ltd.
READ MORE:
Related News
SCROLL TO TOP