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Wednesday, December 30, 2020 04:00
PM / NBS/ Header Image Credit: NBS
Highlights:
Between July and September 2020 (Jan
2018=100):
Terms of Trade
The terms of trade
(TOT) represent the ratio between a country's export prices and its import
prices. The ratio is calculated by dividing the price of the exports by the
price of the imports, usually in percentage terms. An increase in the terms of
trade between two periods (or when TOT is greater than 100%) means that the
value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the
country can afford more imports for the same value of exports. For example, an
increase in the price of oil between two periods (with oil production remaining
the same) is likely to increase or improve the terms of trade for Nigeria and
vice versa. The TOT is recorded as an index, and can be used as an indicator of
an economy's health.
Commodity Price Index July to September, 2020
All commodity group
import index (Table 1).
The All commodity group import index rose by 1.89% between July and
September 2020. This was driven mainly by an increase in the prices
of Products of the chemical and allied industries (9.55%), wood and
articles of wood (4.37%), and live animals; animal products (4.06%). However,
it was negatively affected by decline in the prices of Prepared foodstuff:
beverages (-5.07%), textile and textile articles (-1.07%) and Raw Hides &
skins, leather (-0.92%).
Between July and August 2020, the All commodity group import index rose by 2.49%. This was driven mainly by Products of the chemical and allied industries, which rose 6.8%, Vegetable products (6.07%) and Animal and Vegetable fats and oil (6.05%) but was negatively affected by decline in prices of Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar (-5.19%), Textiles and textile articles (-2.75%) and Raw hides and Skin, leather, furskins etc (-2.38%).
Between August and September 2020, the All commodity group import index decreased by 0.60%. This was as a result of decrease in prices of Animal and Vegetable fats and oils and other cleavage products (-5.22%), Plastic, rubber and articles (-3.13%) and Vegetable products (-2.50%). The decline was offset by increase in the prices of wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (6.13%), products of the chemical and Allied industries (2.73%), Textile and Textile articles (1.68%).
All commodity group
export index (Table 2)
Between July and September 2020, All commodity group
export price index decreased by 0.30% due to decrease in the prices of Products
of chemical and Allied industries (-2.10%), Base metals and articles of base
metals (-1.95%) and Paper making material (-0.74%). However, increases were
recorded for Boilers, machinery and appliances (5.38%), Prepared foodstuffs,
beverages, spirits and Vinegar (1.9%) and Vegetable products (1.05%).
Between July and
August 2020, the All commodity group export index increased by 0.22%. This was
driven mainly by wood and articles of wood, charcoal and articles (4.78%), Live
animals, animal products (1.67%) and Vegetable products (1.60%). It was
negatively affected by base metals and articles of base metals (-1.08%),
Plastic rubber and articles (-0.90%) and Paper making materials, Paper and
paperboard (-0.68%).
Between August and September, the monthly percentage change in the All commodity export index stood at -0.52%.This decrease can be attributed to decreases in the prices of wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal (-4.09%), products of the chemical and Allied industries (-1.46%) and live animals, animal products (-0.91%). The decline was offset by higher prices for Boilers, Machinery and Appliances (4.9%), Prepared foodstuffs, beverages, spirits and Vinegar (1.60%), Textiles and textile articles (0.81%).
Terms of Trade by
commodity (2018 Jan=100) (Table 3)
The All commodity group terms of trade index stood at 103.36 in July, 101.08 in August and 101.16 in September.
This represents a
decrease of 2.21% in August compared to July but an increase of 0.08% in
September against the preceding month. On average, the terms of trade decreased
by 2.13% during the third quarter. This decrease is explained by a significant
decrease in Products of the Chemical and Allied
industries (-11.06%), Base metals and articles of base metals (-4.23%) as well
as Live Animals, animal products (-3.16%). The decline was offset by higher
prices of Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits, and vinegar; tobacco (7.28%)
and Boilers, Machinery and Chemical appliances (5.26%).
All Region Group
Export Index (Table 4)
Between July and August, the All region group export recorded an overall
decrease of 0.30% mainly due to decreases in the prices of exports across
Africa (-6.07%), Europe (-0.58%) and America (-0.1%) while Asia was the only
region that recorded a positive change (2.75%). Between July and
August, the region group export index recorded a marginal increase of 0.22% but
a decrease of 0.52% between August and September.
In August 2020, the monthly change in the index (0.22%) was driven by increase in the export price to Asia (1.30%).
Between August and September 2020, the monthly change in the
All-Region export index stood at -0.52%. This is explained by decreases in
export prices to Africa (-5.96%) and Europe (–0.38%) while Asia and America recorded positive monthly change at 1.46% and 0.09%
respectively .
All Region Group
Import Index (Table 5)
Between July and September, the All region group import recorded an
overall increase of 1.89%. This was due to increases in import prices from
all regions: Oceania (6.9%), America (4.4%), Asia (1.8%) and Europe (1.53%).
Between July and August, the all-region import index recorded an increase of
2.49% but fell 0.60% between August and September.
The August monthly change stood at 2.49% due to the contributions of
Asia (3.30%), Europe (2.91%) and Oceania (1.76%) but was offset by decreases in
Africa (-2.16%) and America (-0.69%).
Between August and September, the All region group import index stood at -0.60%. This was due to the decreased contributions of Asia (-1.46%) and Europe (-1.37%) but slightly offset by higher prices in Oceania (5.18%), America (5.11%) and Africa (1.29%).
Terms of Trade by
Region [2018 Jan=100] (Table 6)
The All Region
group terms of trade index stood at 103.36 in July, 101.08 in August and 101.16
in September.
The data showed
that the terms of trade decreased by -2.21% in August but rose marginally by
0.08% in September. On average, the all-region terms of trade index decreased
by 2.13% in Q3 due to decreases in export prices to Oceania (-6.66%), Africa
(-5.06%), America (-4.30%) and Europe (-2.01%). However, export prices to Asia
were higher by 1.03%.
Merchandise
Trade By Top Five Partners And By Major Commodities, Q3 2020
A. India
India was the
largest export market of Nigeria in Q3 2020. Export trade to India was valued
at N500.63 billion, or 16.73% of the value of total exports. The dominant
export commodity to India was Crude oil (valued at N444.89 billion). This was
followed by Natural gas, liquified (N49.1 0billion), Cashew nuts, in shell (N 2.18billion), Soya beans, whether or not broken (N
1.14 billion) and Leather further prepared after tanning/crusting,
(N0.71billion).
On the other hand, Nigeria imported motorcycles and cycles, CKD by established manufacturers >50cc<=250cc (worth N50.71billion), Other Antibiotics nes (N26.36billion), Vaccines for human medicine (N20.22billion) , Other Polyethylene (N9.27billion) and others from India during the period under review.
B. Spain
Nigeria's major
export to Spain in Q3, 2020 was Petroleum oils and oils obtained from
bituminous minerals, crude, valued at N282.8 billion. This was followed by
Natural gas, liquefied worth N42.6 billion, Leather further prepared after
tanning/crusting without wool at N 1.8 billion and others.
During the quarter,
Motor Spirit ordinary worth N20.65 billion was imported from Spain. Other
imports from Spain included Mixed alkylbenzenes & mixed alkylanaphthalenes
(N17.63 billion), Gypsum; anhydrite whether or not coloured, with/without small
quantities of accelerators (N 4.37 billion).
C. The Netherlands
In Q3 2020, the dominant export commodity to The Netherlands was petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude (N216.7billion). This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied (N2.2 billion), Good Fermented Nigerian Cocoa Beans (N1.6billion), Other Frozen shrimps and prawns (N 1.2billion) and others. On the other hand, Motor Spirit valued at N180.7billion, Other Antibiotics valued at N79.5billion, Gas Oil valued at N 58.8billion, Blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis) meat, frozen (N10.2billion), and Motor spirit, super (N 10.1 billion) were the dominant imports from The Netherlands.
D.Turkey
Turkey was among
Nigeria's leading trading partners in the third quarter of 2020. Exports to
Turkey was valued at N150 billion or 5.01%, largely dominated by Petroleum oils
and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, Crude (worth N138.75 billion). This
was followed by Natural gas, liquefied, (N9.68billion) and Sesamum seeds (N1.35
billion). On the other hand, the value of imports stood at N59.26billion
representing 1.10% of total imports. The top three import commodities from
Turkey were Plasters of Calcined gypsum, Cooking Appliances, as well as Other
Paper and paper board valued at N4.09billion, N2.60billion and N2.24 billion
respectively.
E. China
In Q3 2020, Nigeria's export trade with China was dominated by Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude which accounted for N64.1billion of exports. This was followed by Natural gas, liquefied (N22.5billion) and Other petroleum gases etc in gaseous state (N16.2billion). In terms of imports, Other instruments, appliances and machines for measuring or checking, nes, Machines for the reception, conversion & transmission or regeneration of voice, images or..., Other appliances such as taps, cocks and other valves, nes were the dominant imports, each valued at N37.2billion, N37.1billion, and N35.2billion respectively.
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