Tuesday, December 25, 2018 07:40 AM /FDC Ltd
This edition of the LBS, 2019 year ahead edition, looks at the global imperatives, turbulence in world trade, the revisionism to protectionist policies, the dangers of competitive devaluation and the spectre of another recession.
In Africa, we look at the challenges of regional integration and vulnerability of African commodity producers to slower growth, price volatility and higher debt.
The Nigerian economy may succumb to pressures of an oil price (down by 40%) to $53pb range and a cut in production to 1.67mbpd. The lower oil revenue and a growing deficit will erode the fiscal consolidation policies of the government.
With Banking industry fragility and a naira under speculative pressure, 2019 will be a year of technological and investment opportunities but serious political and policy challenges.
The amicable settlement between Nigeria and MTN after an avoidable saga is a good way to end an eruptive year. A listing of MTN is the much needed booster shot the Nigerian stock market badly needs.
Nigeria's 2019 election is being greeted with the classical reaction of an economic indifference curve. This curve is a combination of choices between commodity A and B which gives a consumer the same level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction.
Most economics textbooks talk about a choice between commodity A and B, which by strange coincidence is the first letter of the names of the two leading candidates. Talking to a cross section of young people between the ages of 20 and 30, most respondents were unenthusiastic, indifferent and apathetic. Some considered it an Hobson’s choice. Based on this, we are anticipating voter apathy and a low turnout in the February election.
In the attached slides presented by Bismarck Rewane at the LBS December dinner, he takes a deep dive into the imponderables, flashpoints and unknowns of 2019 and tries to unravel the uncertainties ahead.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance.
Kindly download The LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Dec 2018
1. Political Headwinds and Economic Challenges – LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Nov 2018
2. No Stability, No Democracy Bumpy Road Ahead - Fasten Your Seat Belts – LBS EBS - Oct 2018
3. The Players Change But The Game Remains - LBS Executive Breakfast Session - Sept 2018
4. Watching From The Political Balcony - LBS Executive Breakfast Session – Aug 2018
5. From Russia with Tears and the New Economic Disorder - LBS EBS – July 2018
6. The New Political Calculus – LBS EBS – June 2018
7. Make Hay In May, While The Sun Still Shines – LBS EBS – May 2018
8. Talking Economics and Thinking Politics – LBS EBS – April 2018
9. At $65, Oil is Up 22.4% in 12 Months, Can It Fall Again?? – LBS EBS – March 2018
10. 2019 - The Changing Political Calculus – LBS EBS – February 2018
11. The FDC 2018 Periscope – The Good, The Bad and The Annoying
12. There is More to Economic Growth Than Numbers - LBS EBS – December 2017
13. The More Things Change The More They Stay The Same - LBS EBS – November 2017
14. Basking in the Afterglow of Reform - LBS EBS – October 2017
15. Buhari Returns: Hope High and Challenges Daunting - LBS EBS - September 2017
16. Nigerian’s Domestic Debt: A Ticking Time Bomb - LBS EBS – August 2017
17. Nigeria: Is The Recovery For Real? - LBS EBS – July 2017
18. Nigeria: Recovery Slow, Steady but Painful – LBS-EBS June 2017
19. Nigerians May Escape from Anxiety with a Stronger Naira - LBS EBS - May 2017
20. Naira Gains as the CBN Tries to Catch a Falling Knife - LBS EBS - April 2017
21. Economic Reform by Coincidence - Does It Really Matter? - LBS EBS – March 2017
22. Nigeria's Economic Reform - Resist Now and Regret Later - LBS EBS - Feb 2017
23. 2017: A Year of Fear Laced with Hope
24. Running Faster to Stand Still – LBS EBS – Dec 2016
25. Recovery Fades, Strong Regulator versus Efficient Markets – LBS EBS Nov 2016
26. Nigeria Oil Shock 2.0 and the Treacherous Path to Recovery – LBS EBS Oct’16
27. Recession: how deep and for how long? – LBS EBS Sep’16
28. Policy Daunting, Markets Uncertain, Citizens Groan – LBS EBS – Aug 2016
29. With Inflation at 16.5%,Nigeria Stumbles into the Reform Path-LBS EBS Jul 2016
30. Sell in May and Go Away - LBS EBS - May 2016
31. The Squandering of a Golden Economic Opportunity – LBS EBS Apr 2016
32. Naira Weakness Undermines Economic Stability – LBS EBS – March 2016
33. 2016: The Year of Stark Economic Reality – LBS EBS – Feb 2016
34. 2016 - A Year of Growth and Commodity Turmoil – LBS EBS – Dec 2015
35. Fantasy economics & the value of the Naira – LBS EBS – Nov 2015
36. All the Presidents’ Men - Dream team or Lightweights – LBS EBS – Oct 2015
37. Loot Recovery? Restitution is no Retribution - LBS EBS – Sep 2015
38. Nigeria goes back to the Future : Market vs. Control Economy - LBS EBS - Aug 2015
39. Buhari: Slow Start or Guessing Game – LBS EBS – July 2015
40. Reflating a Strangulating Economy – LBS EBS – Jun 2015
41. Leadership Change is not a System Change – LBS EBS April 2015
42. Is the Naira Ever Going to Recover? – LBS EBS – March 2015
43. Nigeria at Crossroads- Stability or Change, Which do You Prefer? -LBS EBS – Feb 2015
44. The Falling Naira: Are you Prepared? - LBS EBS- Jan 2015
45. Octobers can be eventful - LBS EBS – Nov 2014
46. Inflation Up, Stock Market Down, What Next? - LBS EBS Sep 2014
47. MUMU-NOMIKS vs. Economics – LBS EBS – Jun 2014