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Friday, January
28, 2022 / 09:20 AM / by FBNQuest Research / Header Image Credit: ZD Net
Our chart below is drawn from the Nigerian
Communications Commission's ( NCC) most recent data for December 2021. They
show another modest rise of 1.0% m/m and 1.1% m/m in active mobile lines and
internet subscriptions to 195 million and 141.6 million respectively, for
December. Active lines have steadily increased since July '21, following
lifting of the regulator's ban on SIM card sales and activation. The number of
active lines translate to teledensity and internet penetration rates of
c.97.6%, and 70.8% based on an assumed population of 200 million.
In line with the modest growth in active mobile lines
and internet subscriptions, we see that broadband subscriptions also ticked up
by 2% m/m to c.78 million, implying a broadband penetration rate of almost 40%.
Even before the regulatory-induced fall last year, the
increase in active mobile lines and internet subscriptions had begun to slow as
the sector approached maturity, with teledensity and mobile penetration rates
of c.104% and 77.2%, respectively, as of November '2021.
However, despite the large base of active mobile lines
and internet subscribers (which are mostly mobile), the quality of internet
connection is still very poor, when measured by data speed.
According to the Digital Quality of Life Index, a
global body that ranks countries based on digital wellbeing, Nigeria ranked
82nd overall out of 110 countries ranked on digital quality, and 105 in terms
of broadband speed.
On a more positive note, Nigeria was ranked 43rd in
the world for mobile data pricing in 2021, with an average price of USD0.88 per
1GB of data, compared to a global average of USD4.07, based on data from 230
countries.
While GSM networks' expansion of 4G networks has
helped boost data speeds, much more must be done to raise Nigeria's average
internet data download speed from c.18.92Mbps to the median global average of
29.55Mbps, according to Speedtest Global index statistics (71.26Mbps mean
average).
Following the successful auction of 5G licences last month, the eventual
rollout of 5G networks would help improve data speeds. However, we anticipate a
gradual rollout. Given network providers' additional infrastructure
expenditures, data plans may initially be more expensive before tapering down.
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