Saturday, April 13, 2019 08:00 AM / Proshare Content
Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 120419
Source: Afrinvest Weekly Update– April 12, 2019
IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings: Global Growth Prospects Lacklustre
Global and country-level macroeconomic updates by multilateral institutions continued this week during the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We had analysed the IMF’s report on the Nigerian economy last week, highlighting economic projections and critical reform areas. This week we review global growth prospects and the World Bank’s Bi-Annual Update on the Nigerian economy.
Global Growth Forecast Revised Downwards to 3.3% in 2019
In the recently published April 2019 World Economic Outlook (WEO), we saw a third consecutive downward revision to global growth to 3.3% from 3.6% in January 2019. One year ago, the IMF had expected global growth to increase to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019. However, this underperformed projections as growth slowed to 3.6% in 2018 due to trade concerns and tighter financial conditions as interest rates increased in advanced economies. In 2019, diverse risks to global growth are moderating. Monetary policy is now more accommodative in advanced economies, supporting positive sentiments in financial markets and macroeconomic stability in emerging and frontier economies. Similarly, trade tensions are easing as the US and China ceasefire has lasted 3 months, with the conduct of ongoing trade negotiations fueling optimism of a deal. But despite an improving outlook, these concerns are expected to weigh on growth. In advanced economies, growth is projected to slow to 1.8% from 2.2% in 2018, while Emerging and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are projected to see a slight moderation in growth to 4.4% from 4.5% in 2018. The fast-paced expansion in growth among regions is expected to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean. In SSA, growth is expected to increase to 3.5% from 3.0% in 2018 while an increase to 1.4% from 1.0% is expected in Latin America & the Caribbean. However, given that their share of GDP is 8.0%, the impact on global growth is unsurprisingly expected to be mute. Beyond 2019, global growth is expected to recover to 3.6% in 2020, driven by stronger momentum in EMDEs.
Nigeria’s Short to Medium-Term Economic Outlook Downbeat
The latest World Bank update on Nigeria is mostly consistent with the IMF’s consultation on Nigeria. The general theme is one of weak economic momentum over the medium-term, where growth is projected to be below potential, long-term trend and population growth. This has been attributed to weak macroeconomic framework, policy uncertainty and the slow pace of structural reforms in the economy. Some of the issues highlighted are inadequate monetary and fiscal policies which constrain private sector activity, unsustainable fiscal position due to high deficits, a poor business environment, low credit to the private sector and vulnerability to domestic and external shocks. The World Bank suggests a strengthening of fiscal buffers, an alignment of exchange rates and a phasing out of electricity and fuel subsidies as ways to enable growth. Also, the World Bank noted that incentivising private sector funding of investment in human and physical capital is necessary given the limited scope for capital spending by the FG.
Sunday, April 14, 2019
The 2nd Annual International Conference & Exhibition (OGTAN ace 2019) will hold on this day with the theme: Human Capital Development at Eko Hotel & Suites, Victoria Island Lagos.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Seed Industry Stakeholders in Africa will on this day commence its conference and exhibition with the theme: Unlocking the Potentials of the Nigerian Seed Industry at the NICON Luxury Hotel Abuja, while the 5th Annual International Academic Conference on Accounting & Finance Seminar will hold on the same day with the theme Contemporary Issues in Business, Accounting & Fintech.
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the 2018 Food Security Survey (North East & North West), CPI and Inflation Report March 2019, Full Year 2018 Air Transportation Data, Liquefied Petroleum Gas(Cooking Gas) Price Watch March 2019, SELECTED FOOD PRICES March 2019, Selected Petroleum Statistics: Oil and Gas Production, Drilling and Development (2018) & Transport Fare Watch (March 2019).
Tuesday, April 16, 2019
The African Market Research Association (AMRA) will on this day hold the Africa Forum with the theme: Building Tomorrow; Africa Leading at Federal Palace, Lagos Nigeria while Securex West Africa will hold same day at the Landmark Centre, Victoria Island Lagos.
McNichols Consolidated Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting at Gift and Gold Events Centre, 58/60 Journalist Estate Road, Arepo, Ogun State.
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Courteville Business Solutions Plc will on this day hold its Courteville's Middle Management 4th Convocation at 38, Commercial Avenue, Sabo, Yaba while the 5th Exporters Dialogue will hold same day with the theme: Nigeria Trade Policy Stance: Implications for Global Competitiveness at Radisson Blu Hotel Isaac John Street GRA Ikeja, Lagos.
AFEX Commodities Exchange Ltd & Proshare Nigeria will on this day hold a tweet chat on Agricultural Commodities as key Vehicle for Investment.
Thursday, April 18, 2019
Guaranty Trust Bank Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting at Oriental Hotel, 3, Lekki Road, Victoria Island, Lagos while the 2019 Africa Intergrity Prize will hold on the same day at the Lagos Oriental Hotel, Lekki, Nigeria.
The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council will on this day hold the PEBEC Stakeholder Forum at Radisson Blu Hotel, Victoria Island while EFINA/UK High Commission will on this day hold a Presentation of Grants Event at Ozone, Gbagada Lagos.
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the 2018 Drug Seizure and Arrest Statistics.
Friday, April 19, 2019
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Pension Asset & Membership Data (Q1 2019)
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