What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 241218

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Friday, December 21, 2018 08:00 PM / Proshare Content


Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 211218  

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Source: Vetiva Weekly Market Wrap - December 21, 2018

ASI posts first positive w/w close in 7 weeks

• In spite of a 9bps moderation on Friday and mixed market performances through the week, the All-Share Index ended the week 33bps up, the first positive w/w close since 9th November 2018. Leading gainers today and for the week was the Oil & Gas sector (+182bps d/d, spurred by advances in FO (18.05% w/w) and MOBIL (18.01% w/w). Likewise, the Consumer Goods (+90bps d/d, +92bps w/w) and the Industrial Goods (+30bps d/d, +114bps w/w) sectors ended the week higher, buoyed by advances in HONYFLOUR (12.61% w/w) and DANGSUGAR (+526bps w/w), DANGCEM (+108bps w/w) and CCNN (+13.38% w/w). The Banking sector however fell 54bps today, ending the week 220bps lower, following declines in ACCESS (-537bps w/w) and ETI (-550bps w/w).

 

• With more visible bargain hunting on the exchange, we anticipate a slightly positive start to next week’s trading as investors continue to snap up downbeaten stocks.

 

Stock Watch: UNITYBNK has been on an uptrend this week with four consecutive positive sessions, gaining 39% w/w to settle at 0.96. The stock currently trades at 81% above its year open price, outperforming the banking sector (-15%).

 

FI yields moderate despite sustained mop-ups

  In spite of the CBN’s tight monetary stance, the interbank call rate declined 290bps w/w to settle at 21.67% on Friday. Overall, the CBN sold 560 billion in OMO auctions this week, including 196 billion at a special OMO on Thursday.

 

Meanwhile, despite the multiple auctions, yields declined 5bps d/d and w/w on average in the treasury market. Specifically, yields on the 181DTM and 258DTM bills advanced 88bps w/w and 57bps w/w respectively to settle at 13.27% and 16.27%. Likewise, yields declined 6bps d/d & w/w on benchmark bonds, spurred by lower-than expected rates on the 10-year bond at Wednesday’s Primary Market Auction. Specifically, the yields on the 13.98% FGN FEB 2028 and 12.15% FGN JUL 2034 bonds declined 18bps w/w and 11bps w/w respectively to settle at 15.64% and 15.60%.

 

• We expect the CBN to resume with liquidity mop-ups next week and foresee slowdowns in demand at the secondary FI market next week.

 

 • The Naira appreciated 0.69 w/w at the I&E FX Window to settle at 364.54 against the dollar and declined 1.00 against the dollar to settle at 363.50 w/w in the parallel market.

 

Despite increased pressure on the currency during the festive season, we expect the naira to remain relatively stable across the various windows of the currency space as the CBN maintains interventions in the FX market.  

 

 

News Post:  Unemployment Rate Rises to 23.1% in Q3 2018 from 18.8% in Q3 2017


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Monday, December 24, 2018

The National Bureau of Statistics will this day release the Labour Force Statistics - Volume 2: Unemployment and Underemployment (Q4 2017- Q3 2018), as well as Road Transport Data for Q3, 2018.

 

The United States 3-Month Bill, 6-Month Bill and 2-Year Note Auction will be hold on this day.

 

 

Thursday, December 27, 2018

The National Bureau of Statistics will release the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) November 2018 Disbursement Report on this day.

 

The United States CB Consumer Confidence for December 2018 will be released this day.

 

 

Friday, December 28, 2018

The National Bureau of Statistics will this day release the Sectorial Distribution of Value Added Tax Report for Q3 2018.

 

 

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Latest Reports This Past Week

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3.     Unemployment Rate Rises to 23.1% in Q3 2018 from 18.8% in Q3 2017

4.     Nigerian Economy in Perspective 2019 - Dysfunctional Policies and Structural Rigidities


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Previous Week(s) Market Outlook 

1.      What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 171218

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