What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 240918

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Sunday, September 23, 2018 08:00 AM / Proshare Content 

 

Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 210918 

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From the Editor’s Desk 

Recently, the external volatility witnessed globally streaming from trade frictions and rising fund rates   have propelled yields on emerging economies to new high. 

At the same time the growing indifference have bolstered the possibility of corporate  defaults on external  debt. Especially, in countries where growth has been fueled heavily by external borrowing combined with inherent negative current account. 

The recently published report on the trajectory of public debt by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria (NBS) is certainly timely at this particular point in time.  It provides ample opportunity to take an in-depth diagnosis on Nigerian debt.

The external debt incurred by states rose from $3.94 billion at the end of 2017 to  $4.24 billion at the end  of  the  second  quarter  of 2018, thus  reflecting a 7.6% increase  in the  total  amount  of  debt  incurred by sub-nationals. 

 The debt incurred by sub-nationals account for just 19.2% of the total external debt while the amount of external debt incurred by the Federal Government rose from $11.01 billion to $17.834 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2018. 

Fig 1:  Total Debt 

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Source: NBS

Broadly, the total external debt rose from $15.047 billion at the end of 2017 to $22.03 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2018. Thus, reflecting a 60% and 142% increase compared to 2017 and 2015. The dynamic further underpin the administration’s policy to increase external debt to 40% of its total debt pool. 

Although, the fiscal side in attempt to short circuit the domestic money market has increased its appetite for external debt. However, the growing accentuation in the degree of export concentration from 66.4% to 71.4% coupled with fickle rise in oil price.

Moreover, with the slack witnessed in GDP growth which has resulted into a slower pace in output compared to the present galloping rise in external debt. 

Such dynamic is inflammable leaving the nation vulnerable to a debt over hang, thereby triggering wider ripples regarding   fiscal management on the long term, if the growth in external debt is not curtailed.  Evidently there is a need for  stronger fiscal  rule moving forward fused with  increased  use of such  Federal Government guarantee as an alternative measure.                         

 

News Post:  Lagos State Accounts for 34.17% of Foreign Debt As At June 2018 - NBS

 

Read the Full Report HERE 

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Other Developments

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Monday, September 24, 2018

Guinness Nigeria Plc and PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc will on this day be marked down by the NSE having declared a dividend of N1.84 and N0.15 respectively in the preceding week. 

The Monetary Policy Committee will on this day hold the 263rd meeting of the Monetary Policy committee in Abuja while the Make on Nigeria Exhibition & Conference 2018 will commence same day with theme The Emergence of the Entrepreneur 

The Centre for Dryland Agriculture will on this day hold its 3rd International Conference on Drylands with titled Resource Constraints, Conflicts & Changing Climate in the Drylands: Option for attaining SDGs.

The United states of America will on this day issue 3 and 6 months Treasury bill auction as well as a 2 year note Auction. 

 

Tuesday, September 25, 2018 

Fidson Healthcare Plc, Veritas Kapital Assurance and First Aluminium Nigeria Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting in Lagos, Abuja and Lagos Respectively while Lafrage Africa Plc will hold its Extra-Ordinary General Meeting same day in Lagos. 

The Nigeria Innovative Summit 2018 will hold on this day titled Building a Culture of Innovation in Nigeria for Sustainable Economic Growth in Abuja while the Efina Media Roundtable will hold same day titled The Role of Media in Driving Financial Inclusion in Lagos 

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will on this day release the Federation Account Allocation Committee August Disbursement 2018 while the Power Nigeria will hold its Power Exhibition same day in Lagos

Nigeria will on this day host the 6th edition of the ApiExpo Africa in Abuja while the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Gertjan  Vlieghe will be Speaking on same day 

The United State of America will on this day issue a 4 week Treasury Bill Auction and a 5 year note Auction

 

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Women in Finance Nigeria is scheduled to hold its 3rd quarterly dinner in Port-Harcourt Titled Financial Empowerment of Women as a Tool for Economic Development while the 8th Edition of the New Age Banking Summit will hold same day in Lagos titled Stay Relevant in the changing Financial Landscape of Nigeria.

NEM Insurance will this day host the Insurance September Conference titled TRUST - A new technology for insurance rebirth in Nigeria in Lagos

The German Government will on this day release a 10 year Bond Auction. 

Thursday, September 27, 2018           

University Press Plc, Chellarams Plc, Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc, Cornerstone Insurance Plc, Academy Press Plc and Ellah Lakes Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting in Oyo, Kaduna, Lagos, Lagos, Lagos and Port-Harcourt Respectively while the 

United Capital Plc will on this day on this day launch its InvestNow mobile App in Lagos while Economic Associates holds its Conference on Nigeria Economic Outlook in Lagos titled Reaping Gains: Contemplating actions needed to seize opportunities at Federal, State and Corporate levels. 

Europe will on this day release its Consumer Inflation Expectation Report 

Friday September 28, 2018 

The Africa Future Tech & Energy Summit will hold this day in Abuja 

Sunday, September 30, 2018 

The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Drug Usage Schedule for 2016/2017 

 

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 Check out our Events Calendar for event details and follow us on Web, TV, APP and Social Media for updates as the week unfolds. Yours to Serve!

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Contact for Details:

For further information, enquiry or submission of information, kindly email market@proshareng.com and research@proshareng.com Tel: 0700PROSHARE (070077674273). We are waiting to hear from you! 

 

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Latest Reports This Past Week

  1. FAAC Disburses N714.81bn in August 2018 - NBS

2.      Lagos State Accounts for 34.17% of Foreign Debt As At June 2018 - NBS

3.      NIPC Issues Report of Investment Announcements, Half Year 2018

4.   Nigeria: Papering Over The Cracks - HSBC

 

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Latest Videos This Past Week

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Previous Week(s) Market Outlook  

  1. What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 170918
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Read More - The Monthly Proshare CONFIDENTIAL    

1.             AMCON and Financial Services Debt Burden in Nigeria

2.            Poverty Tracker and Nigeria: Raising The Red Flag

3.            POCKET Economics: Addressing Income Inequality

4.            The Silent Drug Epidemic: A Gathering Storm

5.            Judging IMF’s Position on Development Indices

6.           Money Market: The Folk Road

7.            The Headache of Missing Targets

8.            2018 Outlook on the Nigerian Economy: The Need for an Even Keel

9.            Nigeria External Economy and the White Noise of Import Dependency

10.        States and the Rising Weight of Debt

11.         Money Supply: Reeling from Policy Response

12.         How Rail and Energy Will Deliver a Robust Economy for Nigeria

13.         Too Big Government: The Hysteria of Developmental Quagmire

14.    The Nigerian Debt Conundrum and the Need for Automatic Stabilizers 

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