Saturday, February 22, 2020 08:00 AM / Proshare Content
Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 210220
Source: Cordros Weekly Economic and Market Report - February 21, 2020
Japan's economy is at the brink of a technical recession, as the sales-tax hike and the negative impact of typhoon "Hagibis" plunged the economy into its biggest contraction in five years in Q4 19. Specifically, GDP plummeted by 0.4% y/y (Q3-19: -1.7% y/y). Consumer spending which accounts for 60.0% of the GDP fell by 2.9% y/y after the national sales tax was raised in October to 10.0% from 8.0%. Also, business spending and exports slipped by 3.7% y/y and 0.4% y/y, respectively. For Q1-20, the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus outbreak has cast a shadow over the possible recovery of Japan's economy. Also, the outlook for domestic consumption looks benign, given the negative ripple effect from the sales-tax hike.
In the US, consumer prices accelerated by 20bps to 2.5% y/y in January 2019 - the highest rate since October 2018 and the 5th consecutive month of increase -, primarily due to the unusually low base in the corresponding period of last year. The surge in inflation was on account of higher housing costs (+10bps to 3.3% y/y) and a significant jump in energy prices (+270bps to 6.3% y/y). Excluding volatile food and energy items, inflation rose slightly by 10bps to 2.3% y/y. Looking ahead, headline inflation is expected to retreat towards the Feds 2.0% target, especially as the low base effect dissipates. Meanwhile, the benchmark interest rate is expected to be kept on hold over 2020, following three rate cuts in 2019.
Stocks across the globe were set to end the week lower on Friday, as investors avoided riskier assets given fears about the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. US (DJIA: -0.6%; S&P: -0.2%) and European (Euro Stoxx: -0.9%; FTSE 100: -0.3%) shares were down at the time of writing. Asian markets were mixed as Japanese (Nikkei 225: -1.3%) investors closed their positions ahead of the 3-day weekend amidst mounting coronavirus cases. Conversely, Chinese (CSI 300: +4.1%) stocks surged as Chinese policymakers vowed to help companies hurt by the fast-spreading outbreak. on expectations of further monetary stimulus to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the global economy. Emerging markets (MSCI EM: -1.0%) and Frontier markets (MSCI FM: -0.5%) were not immune to virus fears, with losses in South Korea (-3.6%) and Kuwait (-0.4%) weighing down the respective indices.
In our December inflation note, we had argued that consumer prices would rise, on account of (1) the sustained border closure, and (2) the unfavourably low base from the prior year. In line with our expectations, headline inflation rose to 12.13% y/y in January 2020 - the highest level since April 2018. The outturn is 15bps higher than the prior month (January: 11.98% y/y) and broadly in line with our estimate (Cordros Research est: 12.12% y/y). On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased slightly by 18bps to 0.87%. For February, we expect headline inflation to maintain its upward trajectory, largely on account of continued pressure from food inflation and a low-base driven uptick in core inflation. Hence, we forecast increases in food and core inflation by 12bps and 16bps respectively to 14.96% y/y and 9.51% y/y, respectively. Tying it all together, we expect headline inflation to print 12.30% y/y in February 2020.
According to the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (AGF), the balance of the Excess Crude Account (ECA) - the country's stabilisation fund -, fell by 77.9% m/m to USD71.81 million. The utilization of the funds was not disclosed. However, we note that various administrations have used funds from the ECA for fuel subsidy payments, and augment state government revenue shortfalls, amongst other uses. Despite numerous recommendations by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to the FGN to consider building fiscal buffers that can weather the storm of external shocks, the FGN has continuously depleted the Excess Crude Account (ECA). For a mono-product economy with little to no savings for rainy days, Nigeria is exposed to a downside risk of global crude oil prices declining and/or crude production disruption, especially from the viewpoint of economic growth, inflation, and exchange rate stability. Hence, accountability and transparency, with regards to the management of the oil fund, are needed.
This week, the bears dominated the domestic equities market, amidst continued risk-off sentiments and the absence of positive market catalysts. Consequently, after 4 trading days of losses, the benchmark index dipped by 1.32% w/w to 27,388.62 points. Analysing the performance by sectors, significant losses recorded in the Consumer Goods sector dampened the market performance, after the index plummeted by 6.8%. Also, the Banking (-2.6%), Insurance (-2.1%) and Oil and Gas (-1.28%) indices closed negative. On the flip side, a gain of 1.0% was recorded in the Industrial Goods sector.
Amidst continued weak market sentiments, we advise investors to trade cautiously, taking positions in fundamentally justified stocks.
Money market and fixed income
In line with our expectations, the overnight (OVN) rate expanded by 58bps, w/w, to 3.83%. During the week, the OVN was largely depressed as system liquidity remained buoyant against the backdrop of the significant inflows (NGN1.40 trillion) that came into the system in the prior week and inflows this week from OMO maturities (NGN627.22 billion). However, the rate expanded at the end of the week following outflows from OMO (NGN300.00 billion) and FGN bond (NGN100.00 billion) auctions.
We expect the OVN rate to remain depressed in the coming week, supported by a significant boost to system liquidity from OMO inflows worth NGN927.75 billion on Thursday.
The Treasury bills market remained bullish as the average yield across all instruments contracted by 80bps to 9.4%. This was driven by the OMO segment (average yield: -128bps w/w to 12.0%) of the market given the still buoyant system liquidity. On the other hand, the average yield in the NTB market expanded by 7bps to 3.9% as market participants unloaded instruments in anticipation of the FGN bond auction. There was an OMO auction held during the week, during which the CBN fully allotted instruments worth NGN300.00 billion - NGN10.00 billion of the 89DTM, NGN44.78 billion of the 180DTM and NGN245.21 billion of the 362DTM instruments at respective stop rates of 11.45% (on sale in the prior week), 11.59% (previously 11.60%), and 13.02% (previously 13.04%).
We expect the bullish trend to continue in the Treasury bills market, supported by relatively healthy liquidity.
Trading in the FGN bond secondary market was bullishly, as yields readjusted to the lower PMA stop rates. Consequently, the average yield across instruments contracted by 28bps to close at 9.8%. At the auction, instruments worth NGN140.00 billion were offered to investors through re-openings - 12.75% APR 2023 (Bid-to-offer: 1.7x; Stop rate: 8.7500%), 14.55% APR 2029 (Bid-to-offer: 2.1x; Stop rate: 10.7000%), and 14.80% APR 2049 (Bid-to-offer: 4.5x; Stop rate: 12.1500%). Despite subscriptions across instruments settling at NGN458.20 billion, the DMO eventually allotted instruments worth NGN100.00 billion (excluding an NGN60.00 billion non-competitive allotment), resulting in a bid-cover ratio of 4.6x.
We expect sustained demand next week across the bond yield curve, as market players seek to re-invest excess liquidity from incoming maturities.
As foreign outflows intensified, Nigeria's FX reserves declined by USD380.2 million WTD to USD36.77 billion (21th Feb 2019), as the CBN maintained its support for the currency via its weekly FX interventions; USD210.00 million was sold across the different segments of the FX market - USD100.00 million to the Wholesale segment, USD55.00 million to the SMEs segment, and USD55.00 million to the Invisibles segment. Consequently, the naira appreciated by 0.1% w/w to NGN364.26/USD at the I&E window but closed flat at NGN360/USD in the parallel market. In the Forwards market, the naira appreciated across the 1-month (+0.2% to NGN365.94/USD), 3-month (+0.5% to NGN368.79/USD), 6-month (+2.3% to NGN373.87/USD) contracts, while the rate on the 1- year (0.1% to NGN392.47/USD) contract appreciated.
Looking ahead, we expect the still healthy foreign reserves to support the CBN's currency defense over H1-20. Further out, the blend of tighter cash inflows, faster pace of capital repatriation, and possible resurgence of speculative attacks on the naira will force the CBN to throw in the towel in our opinion.
Sunday, February 23, 2020
The International Bar Association Anti-Corruption in Africa Conference will hold on this day.
Monday, February 24, 2020
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day the release the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product by Outlook Report (Q4 2019 and Full year 2019) while the Social Media Week Lagos 2020 will commence on the same day at Landmark Centre Plot 2 & 3 Water Corporation Road Lagos.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange will on this day host the Honorable Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning to a closing gong ceremony at the 9th Floor Gallery, Stock Exchange House.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Pension Asset and Membership Data( Q4 2019), Selected Banking Sector Data: Sectorial Breakdown of Credit and ePayment Channels and Staff Strength (Q4 2019), while the Sub Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition And Conference will hold on the same day at Eko Convention Centre Victoria Island, Lagos.
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
Zenith Bank Plc will on this day hold a teleconference call with its senior management to discuss its financial result, while Morison Industries Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting at Morison Crescent, Oregun Industrial Area, Ikeja.
The Phillips Consulting Webinar on the Future of Learning & Development will hold on this day.
Thursday, February 27, 2020
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Expenditure Q1 and Q2 2019 while Disruptive Africa Expo and Conference will hold on the same day at LAGOS Oriental Hotel, Lagos.
The Nigerian-South Africa Chamber of Commerce will on this day hold its February 2020 Monthly Networking Breakfast Meeting Forum with the theme: Nigerian in a New Decade: Navigating the Fault Lines at Fantasia Hall, Eko Hotel & Suites, Adetokunbo Ademola Street, Victoria Island, Lagos while the Nigerian- American Chamber of Commerce will on this day hold a Training Course on Customer Relationship Management at NACC Board Room Capwire Buliding, 19A Sinari Daranijo Street, off Ajose Adeogun Street, Victoria Island, Lagos
Friday, February 28, 2020
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Nigerian Capital Importation (Q4 2019
Saturday, February 29, 2020
The GTI Finance Academy IFRS9 Training will hold on this day.
Harvesters Entrepreneurs Forum 2020 will
hold on this day with the theme: Re-Imaging Africa's Path to Prosperity
through Innovation 2020 while the Future Summit 2020
will hold on the same day at Isaac Aluko street Igbo Efo lekki Lekki, Lagos.
Contact for Details:
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