Saturday, June 09, 2018 08:00 AM / Proshare Content
Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 080618
From the Editor’s Desk
During the week, we released the May 2018 Edition of the Proshare Confidential Reportwhich took a cursory look at how deeply the weakness in Human Development Index has become but far beyond the embers of income.
Evidently, there has been erosion in growth largely due to years of policy summersaults and uncertainty. As a result, output gaps have been inevitable which led to a recession. Interestingly, qualitative indicators such as the Human Development Index (HDI) have been weak and have become accentuated in the macro space, as household wallets shifted inwards and real incomes were suppressed.
Though consumption continues to rise in Naira terms, as the nominal value reflects the new market value of goods and services, actual consumption have slumped by 40% when adjusted for inflation and exchange rate. Currently, 53% of Nigerians live below $1.90 per day, thus underlining the dent in consumption by Nigerians, given the ongoing reality.
Thus, the study sought to pinpoint the factors responsible for the rise in income inequality, consider how much room the external and regional economy provides while recommending measured needed such as the need for more income driven policies and investment lead growth alongside the need for more trade openness and more private contribution to Gross capital formation as well as investment in education and research.
The National Bureau of Statisticsrecently published the balance of trade (BOT) report for the first quarter of 2018. Export at the end of the first quarter rose by N3.9 trillion to N4.69 trillion, reflecting a 20% increase in exports when compared to the previous quarter.
The upswing in exports was largely due to the rise in oil price, as oil accounted for 76% of exports, while pinpointing to the high level of export concentration. Import also accelerated from N2.5 trillion to N2.11 trillion, thereby reflecting a 19% increase in imports; thus, recording a surplus balance of trade of N2.175 trillion.
Fig 1: Balance of Trade
The holistic value of external trade to GDP on a quarterly basis rose 19.03% in Q4 2017 t0 Q1 2018. In recent times, the trifecta of high oil prices, rising fund rates and strong dollar have rattled emerging markets; thus triggering a ring of capital reversals, eventually putting the currencies of such countries under serious pressure.
The Naira was not immune either, as the foreign reserve partly absorbed the shock emanating from capital reversals. The ripples from rising fund rates and strong dollar have not completely fizzled out. It is expected to linger on for some time. However Nigeria tends to find substantial cushion from high oil prices against the duo of rising fund rates and strong dollar.
The current, external trade (Import plus export) to GDP is far higher than pre recessionary period, depicting a healthier level of liquidity when compared to 2016; obviously leaving the nominal currency less vulnerable than other emerging economies.
Fig 2: External Trade to GDP
Monday, June 11, 2018
The Nigeria Stock Brokers Agribusiness Group Symposium themed “Tapping into investment opportunities in the Agribusiness value chain” will hold this day in Lagos, while the Annual StartConFest powered by Root Hub to showcase startups and enterprises in Akwa Ibom will kick start.
The National Bureau of Statisticsis scheduled toCadbury Nigeria Plc, Newrest ASL Plc and Capital Hotel Plc will be marked down by the NSE; having declared a dividend of N0.16, N0.18 and N0.05, respectively in the preceding week. release the Sectoral Distribution of Value Added Tax Report for Q1, 2017 this day, while
Prestige Assurance Plc will hold its Annual General Meeting this day in Lagos.
What did we miss?
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
The National Bureau of Statisticsis scheduled to release the Crime Statistics: Reported Offences by Type and State (2017) Report this day.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
The National Bureau of Statisticsis scheduled to release the Automotive Gas Oil (Diesel), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (Cooking Gas), National Household Kerosene, Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) and Transport Fare Price Watch as well as the CPI and Inflation Report for May 2018 this day.
The Nigerian–American Chamber of Commerce June 2018 Breakfast Meeting themed “Investment Opportunities in Nigeria’s Free Trade Zones” will hold this day in Lagos.
The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in collaboration with BNFB will commence a 3-day Project planning, Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation Course from this day in Abuja, while the ACTU Workshop on Monitoring Compliance with Ethical Standards and Integrity Codes in MDAs powered by the Anti‐Corruption Academy of Nigeria takes place.
Thursday, June 14, 2018
Meyer Plc will hold its Annual General Meeting this day in Lagos.
The Nigerian–American Chamber of Commerce will hold a Business Growth Master Class this day, while the third Lagos Studies Association Conference holds.
Friday, June 15, 2018
The National Bureau of Statisticsis scheduled to release the Selected Food Prices May 2018 Report this day.
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