What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 051118

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Sunday, November 04, 2018 08:00 AM / Proshare Content 

 

Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 021118

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From the Editor’s Desk

Source: ARM Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

 

Global Economy

U.S trade deficit expanded slightly by 130bps (vs 650bps in August) to $54 billion in September, albeit at a slower pace driven by a rebound in exports. For clarity, exports expanded by 149bps MoM to $212.6 billion outpacing the impact of a growth in imports (+146bps MoM to $266.6 billion). Elsewhere, preliminary estimate of GDP in the Eurozone reveals a slowdown in the growth rate to 1.7% YoY in Q3 (Q2 18: 2.2%). For us, we perceive the slowdown in growth stems from Italy and the U.K Brexit related issues. Also, the bank of England left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, however it signalled the possibility of a hike in its monetary policy stance over the next three years in other to drive inflation down to its 2% target rate.            

 

Domestic Economy 

The CBN released a draft economic report for first half of 2018 which showed the state of the economy between January - June 2018. Importantly, the report showed FG fiscal deficit of N786.8 billion (15% lower than H1 2017) relative to budgeted fiscal deficit of N977.2 over the same period. The lower deficit compared to the budget reflected a lower expenditure outlay over H1 18 (-46% to N2.6 trillion) due to slow pace of capital releases as the passage of the budget was delayed. Also, the FG recorded a revenue shortfall of (-52.9% to N1.8 trillion) due to drop in both oil revenue – a fall out of lower oil production (1.9mbpd compared to budgeted 2.3mbpd) and export over –, and non-oil revenue. 

 

Equities

The Nigerian equity market reversed the positive trend witnessed over the past two weeks, declining by 2.38% WoW.  The negative performance was driven by declines in FBNH (15.0%), ETI (-4.48%), GUINNESS (-5.2%), DANGSUGAR (-10.9%), DANGCEM (-2.9%), NESTLE (-1.5%) and SEPLAT (-3.1%). The stocks that recorded the highest declines during the week were UNITYBNK (-21%), DANGFLOUR (-21.1%), CCNN (-18.8%) and DIAMONDBNK (-16.7%). On a sectorial basis, all sectors closed in the negative territory except the Construction and Real Estate which closed flat. The Brewers (-4.7%), Cement (-3.1%), Personal Care (-5.1%) and Food (-3.3%) were the largest losers.          

 

Fixed Income

Average yields in the fixed income market dipped 6bps WoW to 14.6%. The plunge in yields was largely driven by demand at the short end of the curve which came in despite higher stop rates at this week’s NTB, with average NTB rates 59bps (12.96%) higher than the last auction. However, following sell off at the long end of the curve average bond yields rose 19bps WoW to 15.26% to moderate the plunge at the short end of the curve.

 

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Other Developments 

 

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Monday, November 05, 2018 

The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the 2017 Sustainable Development Goals Indicators 

Nigeria-Canada Investment Summit will hold this day with the theme Fostering Strong Business Partnerships into The Future in Abuja 

The West African Ports and Rail Evolution conference is scheduled to hold on this day with the theme Defining the future of West Africa's transport industry in Lagos. 

The 7th Edition of the African Leadership Conference (ALC) on Space Science and Technology is scheduled to hold this day in Abuja

 

Tuesday, November 06, 2018 

Bonds, Loans & Sukuk Nigeria 2018 is scheduled to hold this day in Lagos while the EFINA Financial Inclusion Conference will hold same day at Eko Hotel and Suites Lagos.

The 2018 Investment Advisers and Portfolio Press Conference is scheduled to hold this day at the office of the Emerging Africa Capital Group, Ikoyi Lagos. 

The 9th Annual Payment Systems and Fraud Conference is scheduled to hold this day in Lagos

 

Wednesday, November 07, 2018 

FMDQ 5th Anniversary is scheduled to hold this day by 9.000AM at 35 Idowu Taylor Street Victoria Island, Lagos. 

United States of America will on this day release its 30year bond Auction, Crude Oil Import and Crude Oil Inventories. 

 

Thursday, November 08, 2018            

The Africa Fintech Summit is scheduled to hold this day in Lagos while the Nigeria Investment Conference 2018 will hold same day in Lagos 

The Maiden edition of the Nigeria Eminent Personalities And Corporates Awards (NEPAC) will hold same day at Sheraton Hotel Ikeja Lagos. 

The Nigerian Aviation Business Exhibition 2018 is scheduled to hold this day with the theme Wings to Fly: Human Capacity Building, Key to Aviation Growth in Lagos 

A Market Presentation of Eximia Realty Company Limited will hold this day at , Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 1 Idowu Taylor Street, Victoria Island, Lagos while The International Monetary Fund will release a report on Fall 2018 issue of the Sub-Saharan Regional Economic Outlook (REO) same day at The Conference Hall, Nile University, Abuja 

Canada will on this day release its New Housing price Index

 

Friday November 09, 2018 

CFA Women in Investment Management Workshop will hold this day in Lagos while the FMDQ Gala Night holds same day at Oriental Hotel, Victoria Island Lagos.

 

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Latest Reports This Past Week

1.       Manufacturing PMI Stands at 56.8% in October 2018 from 56.2% in September 2018

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