What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 280621

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Saturday, June 26, 2021 07:40 AM / Proshare Content / Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics


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Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 250621 

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Editor's Note

Source: Proshare Research - June 25, 2021

Nigeria Economy

  • The Federal Government on Thursday said it was investing $1bn on the construction of three flagship projects namely:  the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Second Niger Bridge, and Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Expressway. The Minister of State for Works and Housing, Abubakar Aliyu who disclosed this at an event earlier in the week, added that over N15tn would be required to bridge the country's infrastructure deficit.
  • Minister of State for Labour and Employment, Festus Keyamo announced on Thursday that the Federal Government has paid the sum of N24.8 billion as stipends to 413,630 beneficiaries under the Special Public Works Programme. According to the Minister, the scheme which enlisted a total of 774000 beneficiaries each of whom would get N60,000 each, is meant to reflate the economy especially as all Local Government Areas will benefit.
  • According to data from NBS, domestic debt accounted for 62.33% of Nigeria's public debt portfolio as of Q1 2021. The domestic debt portfolio accounted for N20.64trn out of the total public debt stock of N33trn, while external debt was N12.47trn. Meanwhile, further disaggregation of Nigeria's domestic public debt showed that the Federal Government's domestic debt stock was put at N16.51trn while the domestic debt of States and FCT domestic debt stock was given as N4.12trn.
  • The World Bank has said Nigeria can mobilize revenue of up to N600bn annually by increasing 'sin taxes' especially the excise duties on tobacco and alcohol just as recommended in the Multi-lateral Organisation's 'Resilience through Reform' report. According to a senior official of the bank, Nigeria's excise duty rates on tobacco and alcohol are one of the lowest in Africa and a rise in the excise duty on such items would not impact most of the population.
  • The Minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed declared on Wednesday that Nigeria planned to take more loans to fund infrastructure. Ahmed mentioned that the country was grappling with constrained revenue and as such needed to borrow more. The Minister argued that the debt-to-GDP ratio at 29 % allowed for more debt.  Meanwhile, the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, differed on the nation's debt-to-gross Domestic Product ratio saying that the debt to GDP ratio had risen to 35 percent. 


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Global Economy

  • US Commerce Department announced on Thursday that the final reading of GDP data shows that the US economy expanded by an annualized rate of +6.4% in Q1 2021 indicating the fastest growth in years. The GDP growth figures of the economy outperform the 6.00% growth rate earlier penciled in by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
  • The President of the African Development Bank Group, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina announced on Wednesday that the bank was planning to generate 10,000MW of solar power in the Sahel of Africa. The program will provide climate-friendly electricity to 250 million people. Meanwhile, the bank raised the proportion of its total financing committed to the sustainable environment from 9% in 2016 to 35% in 2019.
  •  European Central Bank head, Christine Lagarde stated that Eurozone GDP is recovering and will return to pre-pandemic levels by Q1 2022,  which is earlier than originally projected. According to Lagarde, fiscal and monetary policy continue to play their role in underpinning economic activity and bolstering confidence. However, there was still a need for continued support to prevent a situation where the pandemic leaves a telling impact on the zone's economy.


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Commodities Market

Weekly Review and Outlook

Energy

Domestic

  • Oil dealers in Nigeria under the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Suleja/Abuja Unit started a strike on Monday following disagreements between it and the Department of Petroleum Resource (DPR). The IPMAN said it was against the DPR's request for daily stock of products supplied by the dealers patronizing the Suleja depot in Niger State, describing it as unethical. The Head, Public Affairs, DPR, Paul Osu, argued that the request was a statutory regulatory requirement for a licensed retail outlet, which enables DPR to provide accurate petroleum products consumption data for the country.
  • Speaking at the opening of a two-day National LPG sensitization and awareness campaign in Abuja on Tuesday, Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo said effective implementation of the National LPG Expansion Plan (NLEIP) would move Nigerians away from using cooking fuel that is harmful to health and the environment to cleaner and more efficient energy. The FG noted that its plan to upscale the 5 percent LPG domestic usage to 90 percent in 10 years.
  • The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, during the shareholder's agreement on the construction of Brass Petroleum Products Terminal Limited (BPPT) on Tuesday, noted that residents of riverine areas had perpetually bought refined petroleum products at exorbitant prices because of the huge cost of transporting products to those locations. He believed BPPT limited located at Okpoama, Brass Local Government Area, Bayelsa State, will resolve these problems for the region.
  • The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation on Wednesday said it was collaborating with law enforcement agencies and other relevant downstream and upstream stakeholders to curb the menace of petroleum products smuggling and crude oil theft.

 

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Foreign

  • Oil prices were up on Monday, driven by the prospect of strong demand during the summer driving season and a pause in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal that could indicate a delay in the supply of Iranian oil to the market.
  • S&P Global Platts, on Monday, said it has raised its price outlook by $5 per barrel for 2021 as energy demand returns to pre-pandemic levels. The financial information and analytics company said Brent Crude may average $65 per barrel for 2021, $60 per barrel for 2022, and $55 per barrel for 2023. However, it noted that it still expects the global economy to move towards zero-emissions energy sources and minimize dependence on fossil fuels.
  • According to two OPEC+ sources on Tuesday, the organization is considering a gradual increase in supply from August, but no decision has been made yet on the actual volumes.
  • Oil prices gained for the third consecutive session on Friday, as demand growth is expected to outstrip supply on the prospect that OPEC+ producers will be cautious in returning more output to the market from August.
  • Brent had a weekly growth of 3.91% (see Table 1).


Metals

Gold appreciated by 0.37% while Silver also inched up by 0.23% W-o-W (see Table 1).



Agriculture

  • Cocoa prices grew by 0.42% this week.
  • Corn prices depreciated by -4.15% W-o-W while Sugar appreciated by 2.81% (see Table 1).

 

Table 1Weekly Change in Commodity Prices

Commodity

25-Jun-21

18-Jun-21

31-Dec-20

Weekly Chg

YTD Chg

Brent

75.79

72.94

51.8

3.91%

46.31%

Gold

1780.59

1773.95

1898.67

0.37%

-6.22%

Silver

26.07

26.01

26.4011

0.23%

-1.25%

Cocoa

2395

2385

2597

0.42%

-7.78%

Corn

525

547.75

484

-4.15%

8.47%

Sugar

17.18

16.71

15.28

2.81%

12.43%

Source: Bloomberg, Proshare Research

*Data for 25th June 2021 is as of 4:14 pm (Nigerian Time)

 

Outlook

  • In the coming week, oil prices are expected to be bullish on signs of demand growth.
  • Gold prices are expected to be mixed in the coming week, as the dollar continues to pressure the bullion.
  • Cocoa prices to hold steady next week on weak global demand.
  • Sugar prices are expected to be rise next week as U.S. and Brazil are expected to constrain ethanol output in the coming months.
  • Corn prices are expected to be bullish next week amid strong demand from China.


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Fixed Income and Money Market 

 

Currency Market

The currency market returned its bearish trend this week both at the official window and unofficial market.

 

It depreciated against the US dollar, British Pound, and Euro by +2.06%, +0.42%, +0.33% respectively closing at $/N495, £/N718, and €/N605 at the BDC window. 

 

At the I & E FX window, the Naira depreciated week-on-week by +0.16% and +0.19% at the NAFEX window.

 

The Naira closed the week at $/N411.67 at the I&E FX window, at the NAFEX (spot market) it closed at $/N411.

 

 

18-June-21

25-June-21

% Change

I & E FX Window ($/N)

411

411.67

+0.16%

NAFEX ($/N)

410.24

411

+0.19%

BDC ($/N)

485

495

+2.06%

Source: FMDQ, AbokiFX, Proshare Research

 

Money Market

Financial system liquidity opened the week at N75.53bn which pushed funding rates lower at the start of the week.

 

At the close of the trading session this week, funding rates rose. Open Buyback (OBB) closed at 22.00% while Overnight (O/N) rates closed at 23.00% indicating a Week-on-Week (W-o-W) rise of +17.33% for OBB and +19.48% for O/N rates.

 

Money Market Rate

 

18-June-21

25-June-21

% Change

OBB (%)

18.75

22.00

+17.33%

O/N (%)

19.25

23.00

+19.48%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research


Funding rates are expected to trend in double digits in the coming week.

 

Treasury Bills Market

The Treasury Bills Market started this week on a quiet note and a similar sentiment was sustained till the close of the week. However, the market was bearish at the close of the market on Friday, average benchmark yields for T.bills rose significantly by +8.59% to 6.90% while OMO bills rose by +0.81% W-o-W to close at 9.74%, CBN's Special Bill rose significantly by +6.12%.

 

Average Benchmark Yields

18-June-21

25-June-21

% Change

T. Bills (%)

6.35

6.90

+8.59%

OMO Bills (%)

9.66

9.74

+0.81%

SPEB

8.82

9.36

+6.12%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research

 

We expect activity next week to be dictated by the market liquidity situation. 



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FGN Bond Market

The Bond market started the week on a relatively quiet note as market participants traded on a cautious ahead of the Bond auction mid-week.

 

At the close of the week, the overall market was bullish with buying interest seen across the board.

 

The overall average benchmark yields closed at 9.83% for the week which fell W-o-W by -0.41%.

 

Average Benchmark Yields

18-June-21

25-June-21

% Change

Short Tenor (%)

7.66

7.60

-0.85%

Mid Tenor (%)

11.61

11.45

-1.34%

Long Tenor (%)

12.93

12.79

-1.09%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research 

 

Successful bids for the 16.2884% FGN MAR 2027, 12.5000% FGN MAR 2035 & 12.98% FGN MAR 2050 were allotted at the Marginal Rates of 12.7400%, 13.5000%, and 13.7000%, respectively.

 

However, the original coupon rates of 16.2884% for the 16.2884% FGN MAR 2027, 12.5000% for the 12.5000% FGN MAR 2035, and 12.9800% for the 12.9800% FGN MAR 2050 was be maintained.

 

FGN Bonds Auction Result - June. 23, 2021

Maturity

Marginal Rate (%)

Amount Offered (N'bn)

Total Subscription (N'bn)

Amount Allotted (N'bn) 

10 Year

12.74

50

66.21

54.31

15 Year

13.5

50

127.45

104.9

30 Year

13.7

50

223.82

171.09

Source: DMO, Proshare Research 

 

FGN Eurobond Market

The Eurobond market started the week on a relatively weak note as sentiment remains soft given the change in policy stance by the US FED. Selling was seen across the board particularly on the mid to long end of the curve.

 

We expect market sentiment to remain soft as inflation concerns continue to linger.



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Nigerian Capital Market

  • The Nigerian bourse closed the week on a negative note with a decline of -2.56%. The Nigerian Stock Exchange lost N516.32bn thus, year-to-date return moderated to -6.49%, while the market capitalization settled at N19.6 trillion.
  •  Sectoral performance across sectors tracked was mixed this week as the NSEAFRHDYI was the highest gainer for the week with +1.71% while NSE-IND recorded the highest decline with -3.33%. NSE Consumer Goods, NSE Banking, and NSE-Oil and Gas closed the week positive with +0.57%, +0.92%, and +0.12% respectively.
  • Market breadth for the week closed positive with 24 gainers led by HONYFLOUR  as against 10 losers led by NPFMCRFBK


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Chart 1: Movement of NSEASI Index Points 18 June. 2021- 25 June. 2021

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Source: NSE, Proshare Research

 

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NASD OTC 

 

The NASD OTC Security Index (NSI) and Market Capitalization closed the trading week with a positive movement in Market capitalization and NSI. The NSI and Market capitalization closed the week at 758.81 points and N536.52bn with the growth of +1.70% and +1.16% respectively.


 

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Dangote and Toni Index  

Dangote Index closed the week mixed with DANGCEM closing flat, while DANGSUGAR closed positive at +1.41%NASCON closed negative at -1.03%.

 

 

Table 2: Dangote Index W-o-W Change

Company

18-Jun-21

25-Jun-21

WoW Chg

DANGCEM

230.00

230.00

0.00%

DANGSUGAR

17.75

18.00

1.41%

NASCON

14.50

14.35

-1.03%

Source: NSE, Proshare Research 

 

Furthermore, the Toni Index closed negative with 87.54 basis points from 93.17 basis points recorded the previous week, a W-o-W decline of -4.14%.


TRANSCORP, AFRIPRUD, UBA, and UBCAP all closed the week negative with -3.26%, -3.13%, -0.68%, and -50.41% respectively while TRANSCOHOT closed flat W-o-W.


 

Table 3: Toni Index W-o-W Change

Company

18-Jun-21

25-Jun-21

WoW Chg

AFRIPRUD

6.40

6.20

-3.13%

TRANSCOHOT

3.57

3.57

0.00%

TRANSCORP

0.92

0.89

-3.26%

UBA

7.30

7.25

-0.68%

UBCAP

6.17

3.06

-50.41%

Source: NSE, Proshare Research 

 

 

Outlook

 

In the coming week, we expect the possibility of sustained bargain hunting as investors look to take advantage of good bargains, however, press releases from listed companies and other macroeconomic developments are likely to impact investors' decisions.

 

The movement of yields in the fixed income market could also influence the movement in the market.



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3.     Headline Inflation Increases by 17.93% YoY In May 2021, 0.19% Lower Than April 2021 Rate - NBS

4.     FAAC Disburses N640.31bn in February 2021 - NBS

5.     Active Voice Subscribers Declined by -5.96% QoQ in Q1 2021 - NBS

6.     Average Prices of 1kg of Tomato Increased by 0.09% YoY in April 2021 - NBS

7.     Average Fare Paid by Commuters for Intercity Bus Journey Increased by 1.48% MoM in April 2021 - NBS

8.     Average Fare Paid by Commuters for Intercity Bus Journey Increased by 1.48% MoM in April 2021 - NBS

9.     Nigeria's Real GDP Grew by 0.51% YoY in Q1 2021 - NBS

10.  Average Prices of 1kg of Tomato Increased by 0.09% YoY in April 2021 - NBS

11.   Average Fare Paid by Commuters for Intercity Bus Journey Increased by 1.48% MoM in April 2021 - NBS

12.  Nigeria's Real GDP Grew by 0.51% YoY in Q1 2021 - NBS



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