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Saturday, December 16, 2021 07:50 AM / Proshare ContentHeader Image Credit: EcoGraphics
Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 150121
Editor's Note
Source: Proshare Research - January 16, 2021
Global Economy
Commodities Market
Weekly Review and Outlook
Energy
Metals
Agriculture
Table 1: Weekly Change in Commodity Prices
Commodity |
15-Jan-21 |
08-Jan-21 |
31-Dec-20 |
Weekly
Chg |
YTD
Chg |
Brent |
55.44 |
55.24 |
51.8 |
0.36% |
7.03% |
Gold |
1841.83 |
1888.12 |
1898.67 |
-2.45% |
-2.99% |
Silver |
24.94 |
26.62 |
26.4011 |
-6.31% |
-5.53% |
Cocoa |
2518 |
2540 |
2597 |
-0.87% |
-3.04% |
Corn |
532.5 |
496.75 |
484 |
7.20% |
10.02% |
Sugar |
16.3 |
15.74 |
15.28 |
3.56% |
6.68% |
Source: Bloomberg, Proshare Research
*Data for 15th Jan 2021 is as of 3:23 pm (Nigerian
Time)
Outlook
Money
Market
Money
market rates trended lower as the week started on robust system liquidity
estimated at N132.7bn. The trend was maintained for the most trading session of
the week, at the close of the trading session in the week, Open Buyback (OBB)
closed at 0.50% while Overnight (O/N) rates closed at 1.00% indicating a
Week-on-Week (W-o-W) significant decline -93.75%
for OBB and -89.28% for O/N rates.
Money Market Rate |
|||
|
08-Jan-21 |
15-Jan-21 |
% Change |
OBB |
8.00% |
0.50% |
-93.75% |
O/N |
9.33% |
1.00% |
-89.28% |
Source: FMDQ,
Proshare Research
Rates are
expected to trend lower in the absence of funding obligations.
Treasury
Bills Market
The
overall trading session of the Nigerian Treasury Bills market (NTB) was
bearish. At the start of the week average benchmark yield rose by 4bps, the
bearish trend continued during the week although on a less aggressive tone.
At the
close of the week, the average benchmark yields for the T-bills rose W-o-W by +18.60% to close at
0.51% while OMO bills declined by -10.59% to
close at -0.76%.
Average Benchmark Yields |
|||
08-Jan-21 |
15-Jan-21 |
% Change |
|
T. Bills (%) |
0.43 |
0.51 |
+18.60% |
OMO Bills (%) |
0.85 |
0.76 |
-10.59% |
Source: FMDQ,
Proshare Research
Participation
in the NTB market is expected to be quiet as depressed yields persist.
FGN Bond Market
The
trading session for the FGN Bond market for the week was mixed as investor
sentiment was mixed as investors braced up for the First Quarter bond issuance
calendar which was released by DMO during the week. Average benchmark yields
closed flat for the week at 3.23%.
Average Benchmark Yields |
|||
|
08-Jan-21 |
15-Jan-21 |
% Change |
Short Tenor (%) |
1.64 |
1.49 |
-9.15% |
Mid Tenor (%) |
3.94 |
3.99 |
+1.27% |
Long Tenor (%) |
7.41 |
7.86 |
+6.07% |
FMDQ approved the quotation of the Total Nigeria
PLC N2.25 billion Series 1 and N12.75 billion Series 2 Commercial
Papers under its N30.00 billion CP Issuance Programme and
the Mixta Real Estate PLC N2.00 billion Series 32 Commercial Paper
under its N20.00 billion CP Issuance Programme, as well as the
registration of the Valency Agro Nigeria Limited N20.00 billion
Commercial Paper Programme, on its platform.
Also, during the week, The Central Bank of Nigeria on the authority of The Debt Management Office on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria Offered for Subscription by Auction:
Auction date is January 20, 2021, while the settlement date
is January 22, 2021.
We expect
the market to continue in a bearish trend in the coming week as investors await
the Q1 bond issuance calendar.
FGN
Eurobond Market
The trading
session in the Eurobond market for the week was bearish at the start of the
week, investor sentiment was negative as a result of renewed rising cases of
COVID-19 in China. However, at the end of the week, yield rebounded marginally
reacting to the uptick in the prices of Brent Crude.
We expect the market to continue the bearish trend
although on a less aggressive note as a result of the increase in COVID-19
cases.
Foreign
Exchange Market
It was a
bearish market for the Naira this week against major currencies and at the
different windows. At the I&E FX window, the Naira depreciated against the
USD by -0.13% while
at the BDC market it depreciated by -1.06%
week-on-week (W-o-W).
The Naira
closed the week at $/N394 at the I&E FX window, at the NAFEX (spot market)
it closed at $/N393.68, and at the BDC market, it closed at $/N475, £/N642, and Euros/N580.
Chart 1: Movement of NSEASI Index Points 08 Jan.2021 - 15 Jan.2021
The NASD OTC Security Index (NSI) and Market
Capitalization closed the trading week with a negative movement in Market
capitalization and NSI. The NSI and Market capitalization closed the week at 740.04
points and N530.99bn with a growth of -1.63% and -1.63% respectively.
Dangote Index closed the week positive at 126.46
basis points from 119.68 basis points recorded the previous week, an
advancement of +5.66%. DANGCEM recorded a growth in share price by +5.33%, DANGSUGAR gained +8.62% WoW and NASCON closed positive by +21.03% WoW. NASCON recorded the highest gain
WoW.
Table 2: Dangote Index W-o-W Change
Furthermore, the Toni Index closed positive to
close at 109.88 basis points from 105.92 basis points recorded the previous
week, a W-o-W growth of +3.74%. UBA closed the week positive with +4.52%. UBCAP and AFRIPRUD also closed positive with +5.80% and +0.29% respectively. TRANSCOHOT and TRANSCORP closed flat WoW.
Table 3: Toni Index W-o-W Change
Outlook
With
limited opportunities for high yields in other asset classes due to
macroeconomic challenges and a high inflation rate environment, we expect the
market to sustain the bullish momentum as investor sentiment remains positive
in the equities market.
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Previous Week(s) Market Outlook
1. What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 110121
2. What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 281220
3. What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 211220
4. What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 141220
5. What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 071220
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Peace of Mind: Focus on Insurance
3. 62.18% of
Nigeria's Total Public Debt as of Q3 2020 Was Domestic - NBS
4. Active Voice
Subscribers Grew by 4.59% in Q3 2020 - NBS
5. Headline
Inflation Increases by 15.75% YoY In December 2020, 0.86% Higher Than November
2020 Rate
6. Average Price of 1kg of Rice Increases by 23.46% YoY in
November 2020 - NBS
7. NBS
Publishes COVID-19 Impact Monitoring Survey Report for October 2020
8. Average Air
Fare Increases by 18.47% YoY in November 2020 - NBS
9. Capital
Importation into Nigeria Stood At $1,461.49m in Q3 2020 - NBS
10. Banking
Sector Records 2.78bn Volume of Transaction in Q3 2020 - NBS
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Open the Week Positive
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