What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 170918


Sunday, September 16, 2018 08:00 AM / Proshare Content

Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 140918

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From the Editor’s Desk 

What To Expect From The Market

 In recent time, interbank call  rate softened   from   an heist  of  25% at  the  beginning of the  year  to  4.2% at  the  end  of  August 2018.  The softening in the interbank rate witnessed   is due to the  growing  rise in liquidity. 

The rise in liquidity steam from the growing  proximity to the election cycle, which  has become  more of  a qualitative  pressure   on  the  pattern  of  interbank  call rate.  In addition to continuous redemption of short-term instrument by the Federal Government, which has greased the secondary market with liquidity  

 As earlier mentioned, in the  past  we  do expect  the  bank  to resort  to  indirect  tools  such as  Open  market  operation (OMO)  and  Repo  to best  manage  liquidity  moving forward.

 Fig 1:  Interbank Call Rate

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Source: CBN 

The  National  Bureau  of  Statistics, Nigeria  published the  inflation  figures  for  the  month  of  August 2018,  core inflation  for  the month  of August  further  decelerated  from  10.2%  to  10%,   thereby  sustaining  its  earlier  trajectory.  Food inflation rose slightly from 12.85% in July   to 13.1% in the month of August, therefore   rising slightly by 0.25. Inflation on a year on year basis (YOY) rose from, 11.14% to 11.23%, evidently confirming fears of an emergence of a concave in price movement compared on year on year basis. 

More importantly, the divergence  in the  direction  of  price  movement  further  support  the  inherent  bridling  slack  in  the  cycle due to  push factors.  Obviously, it is    becoming   more difficult than ever before, to restore the dynamic adjustment path to its   initial position prior the recession. There is a pressing need by  both side of  the aisle monetary  and  fiscal   to  provide  the desperately  needed  even  keel.  

Fig 2: Inflation

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Source: NBS 

Going  forward,  we  remain  neutral   on convexity  taking  hold  currently   on the  short  end  of  the yield curve,   due  to the  presence  of  positive  real  interest  rate. However,  we  do expect  yields  on  treasury  bills  to tick upwards,  as  exceptional inflation  seem  to  diverge  from previous  trajectory. 

Certainly, the current  dynamic  further  foster  replenishing of cash,  regardless of  the  inability  of convexity . More importantly, the dynamic in price  movement  threaten the   Central Bank’s  policy  objective in   achieving  its  long  awaited sweet spot (single digit inflation).     


News Post:   Headline Inflation Increased by 11.23% in August 2018; 0.09 Higher Than July 2018 Rate 

Read the Full Report HERE 


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Other Developments  

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 Monday, September 17, 2018

The Nigerian Port Authority will today host the International Association of Ports and Harbours (IAPH) Africa Regional Conference in Abuja while Jim Ovia launches his book Africa Rise and Shine same day in Lagos. 

Tuesday, September 18, 2018 

The Bank of Japan is on this day set to release its Monetary policy Statement while Hong Kong releases its Unemployment Rate for August 2018 

The J Bendeb Sylmar Associates in conjunction with the Lagos State Safety Commission will on this day hold Petroleum Marketers Safety Conference in Lagos while The Convention on Business Integrity in collaboration with Business Day Newspapers holds a forum on Regulatory Conversation in Lagos. 

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is scheduled to release the Employment by Sector Report for Q4 2017 – Q1 2018 

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the Air Transport Data for Q2 and Nigerian Domestic and Foreign Debt for June

The European Central Bank President Draghi is on this day set to speak, his comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend while the United Kingdom releases its Consumer Price Index Report YoY .

The German Government will on this day release a 10 year Bond Auction. 

Thursday, September 20, 2018           

Honeywell Flour Mills Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting in Lagos while the National Bureau of Statistics releases the National Agriculture Sample Survey 2016/2017 same day. 

Premier Paints Plc Company's will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting in Ogun while the Nigeria South Africa Chamber of Commerce holds its Breakfast Meeting in Lagos 

Friday September 21, 2018 

Aluminium Extrusion Plc will on this day hold its Annual General Meeting in Enugu while the Financial Market Dealers Association holds its Financial Market Conference holds same day in Lagos 

Lagos Innovating Justice Conference will on this day release of the Justice Needs and Satisfaction Survey (JNS) in Lagos 

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 Check out our Events Calendar for event details and follow us on Web, TV, APP and Social Media for updates as the week unfolds. Yours to Serve! 

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Contact for Details:

For further information, enquiry or submission of information, kindly email market@proshareng.com and research@proshareng.com Tel: 0700PROSHARE (070077674273). We are waiting to hear from you!



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 Latest Reports This Past Week

  1. Headline Inflation Increased by 11.23% in August 2018; 0.09 Higher Than July 2018 Rate
  2. Average Prices of PMS, AGO, HHK and Cooking Gas – August 2018



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2.            Poverty Tracker and Nigeria: Raising The Red Flag

3.            POCKET Economics: Addressing Income Inequality

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6.           Money Market: The Folk Road

7.            The Headache of Missing Targets

8.            2018 Outlook on the Nigerian Economy: The Need for an Even Keel

9.            Nigeria External Economy and the White Noise of Import Dependency

10.        States and the Rising Weight of Debt

11.         Money Supply: Reeling from Policy Response

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