What To Expect From The Markets This Week - 100521

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Saturday, May 08, 2021 07:30 AM / Proshare Content / Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics


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Nigeria: Economic Dashboard 070521

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Editor's Note

Source: Proshare Research - May 08, 2021

Nigeria Economy

  • The Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority and the National Bureau of Statistics have agreed to partner to enable the agencies to share relevant data on import and export points and gauge the contribution of the Free Trade Zone Scheme to the national economy.
  • The Central Bank of Nigeria disclosed on Thursday in a circular to all Deposit Money Banks, International Money Transfer Operators, and the general public, titled 'Re: Introduction of the CBN's "Naira 4 dollar scheme" for diaspora remittances' that it had extended the program indefinitely which was earlier scheduled to end on May 8, 2021.
  • According to the data from CBN's January report on capital importation and capital outflow, the FDI declined to $60m in January 2021 from $90m in December 2020. It noted that a total of $0.38bn new capital was imported into the economy in January 2021, compared with $0.55bn in December 2020. A disaggregation of capital importation by type of investment showed that inflow of Other Investments accounted for the largest share at $0.29bn, and represented 75.5% of the total, followed by FDI inflow of $0.06bn, which accounted for 16.4%. According to the report, capital importation by nature of the investment, banking accounted for 39.6%, shares 31.5%, production/manufacturing 12.8%, telecommunication 6.1%, financing 6%, and agriculture 4%. A breakdown of capital importation by originating country showed that the UK   accounted for 46.8%, Netherlands 20.1%, Republic of South Africa 7.9%, United Arab Emirates 6.5%, Singapore 4.2%, Denmark 3.2%, and Hong Kong 3.1%.
  • According to the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission, growth in investment announcement grew in Q1 2021 by +74.8% Y-o-Y. The total investment announcement increased from $4.8bn in Q1 2020 to $8.41bn in Q1 2021. Manufacturing had 60% ($5.08bn), construction 34% ($2.9bn), electricity 3% ($0.26bn), agriculture 1% ($0.07bn) make up the list of industry on the investments announcements list.
  • Nigeria's Federal Executive Council last week approved the National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy (NPRGS) which is intended to accelerate the reduction in poverty through economic growth, social protection programs, etc. The FEC also announced the establishment of a Nigeria Investment and Growth Fund to invest in commercially viable projects in priority sectors that will promote growth and innovation, enhance local value addition, and create employment. 


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Global Economy

  • China's exports rose by +32.3% in April while its imports rose by +43.1%. Its exports were boosted by demand for electronics and high-tech products, while its imports were boosted by the demand for integrated circuits amid US sanctions and a global chip shortage. A breakdown of the trade with other major countries reveals that China's imports from Australia rose by +49% in April to $14.87bn, while its exports rose by +20% to $5.25bn. Additionally, China's exports to the EU rose by +24% to $39.92bn, while imports rose by +43% to $26.79bn. Lastly, its exports to the US increased by +31% to $42.05bn while its imports from the US grew by +52% to $13.94bn.
  • The U.S trade deficit hit a fresh record high in March 2021 rising to $74.4bn. Its trade imbalance with China increased by more than +22% to $36.9bn while its deficit with Mexico rose by +23.5% to $8.4bn. The increase in the deficit has been attributed to the increase in the consumption of imported goods by American consumers caused by the restrictions on high-contact industries which has diverted consumer spending from domestically produced services to goods, much of which are imported. Exports increased in April by +6.6% to $200bn while imports increased by +6.3% to $274.5bn.
  • The Eurozone factory activity increased to a record high in April, bolstered by the rising demand which drove the rise in hiring, although supply constraints led to an unprecedented rise in unfulfilled orders. While the third wave of coronavirus infections in Europe has forced some governments to shutter much of their dominant service industries, factories have largely remained open. IHS Markit's final Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) rose to 62.9 in April from March's 62.5, albeit below the initial 63.3 "flash" estimate but the highest reading since the survey began in June 1997.
  • The UK's prime minister has announced new trade and investment deals with India worth £1bn. It includes more than £533m of new investment from India into the UK, which is expected to create about 6,000 jobs.
  • The World Bank Group's (WBG) Board of Executive Directors discussed the new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Malawi which supports the creation of more jobs, the strengthening of human capital, and supporting foundations for economic growth and accountability. The new CPF will guide the World Bank Group's work over the next five years in support of Malawi's national priorities as set out in Malawi Vision 2063. The CPF has three strategic focus areas 1. Bolstering foundations for growth and accountability 2. Promoting private sector-led jobs and livelihoods; and 3. Strengthening human capital development. In addition, digital development and women's empowerment are integrated as cross-cutting themes. The CPF is informed by extensive consultations with a broad range of stakeholders in Malawi including government, civil society, and development partners.


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Commodities Market

Energy

Domestic

  • On Tuesday, the House of Representatives urged the NNPC to review the status of the licenses issued to indigenous companies to run modular refineries. The House observed that out of the 38 licenses issued, only two are in the advanced stages of completion which defeat the purpose of the issuance.
  • As crude oil prices increase in the international market, there are indications that the Federal Government through the NNPC would be under more pressure to fund Nigeria's petrol subsidy as the price of Bonny Light rises to $65 per barrel in May 2021 from $26 per barrel in the corresponding period of 2020. It would cost more to procure and refine crude oil.
  • African Refiners and Distribution Association (ARDA) and other experts in the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) industry, on Wednesday, warned of imminent danger in Africa if it fails to quickly adopt modern clean energy as over 850 million Africans still depend on solid fuels (biomass) for cooking. ARDA said solid fuels may continue to kill over 600,000 Africans yearly due to household air pollution.
  • On Thursday, stakeholders in the energy industry, called for cautious optimism and a public policy document as NNPC handed over the Port Harcourt Refinery to Tecnimont SPA for the commencement of the $1.5 billion rehabilitation project in Port Harcourt.

 

Foreign

  • Oil prices fell on Monday as a catastrophic second wave of a coronavirus epidemic in India cut short a recovery in oil demand thereby offsetting optimism about a strong rebound in consumption in developed countries and China in the second half of the year.
  • Oil prices dipped on Tuesday after more U.S. states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract vaccinated travelers, helping to offset concerns over fuel demand in India as COVID-19 cases soar.
  • African OPEC member, Angola signed a $5-billion memorandum of understanding with its neighbor to the east, Zambia, to study the construction of oil products and gas pipelines between the two countries.
  • Iran and the United States are making progress in talks to revive a nuclear deal which could lead to a lifting of U.S. sanctions that would allow Iran to ramp up oil exports, but no significant breakthrough yet. A top Iranian official said, Iran will be able to raise its crude oil exports to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) after the U.S. sanctions on its oil industry are lifted.
  • State-run oil producer Saudi Aramco beat analysts' forecasts on Tuesday with a 30% rise in first-quarter net profit and maintained its dividend payout, helped by strong oil prices, higher refining, and chemicals margins, helping offset lower production.
  • Oil prices rose early on Wednesday after industry data indicated U.S. crude stocks fell much more than expected last week, reinforcing bullish views on fuel demand in the world's largest economy.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday, recouping early losses at the close of the previous session, as crude stockpiles in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, fell more sharply than expected as refining output rose and exports surged.
  • Oil prices recovered on Friday, after a 1% dip at the close of the previous session, on buoyant economic data from China and the United States, even as the surging COVID-19 pandemic in India capped prices.
  • Brent had a weekly growth of 1.44% (see Table 1).


Metals

  • On Friday, the Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange announced its readiness to begin gold trading with the admission of Dukia Gold's diversified financial instruments, backed by gold as the underlying asset. Dukia Gold said the instruments, which would be in form of exchange-traded notes, commercial papers, and other gold-backed securities, would enable the company to deepen the commodities market in Nigeria, increase capacity, generate foreign exchange for the government to diversify external reserves, and create jobs across the metal production value chain.
  • Gold appreciated by 3.79% while Silver also inched up by 5.82% W-o-W (see Table 1).

 

Agriculture

  • Cocoa prices were bullish by 2.14% this week.
  • Corn prices jumped by 9.23% W-o-W while Sugar also grew by 3.75%  (see Table 1).

 

Table 1Weekly Change in Commodity Prices

Commodity

07-May-21

30-Apr-21

31-Dec-20

Weekly Chg

YTD Chg

Brent

68.26

67.29

51.8

1.44%

31.78%

Gold

1835

1767.91

1898.67

3.79%

-3.35%

Silver

27.44

25.93

26.4011

5.82%

3.94%

Cocoa

2436

2385

2597

2.14%

-6.20%

Corn

722

661

484

9.23%

49.17%

Sugar

17.45

16.82

15.28

3.75%

14.20%

Source: Bloomberg, Proshare Research

*Data for 7th May 2021 is as of 4:45pm (Nigerian Time)

 

Outlook

  • In the coming week, oil prices are expected to be mixed as India's COVID crises worsen and countries in Europe begin to ease restrictions.
  • Gold prices are expected to be bullish in the coming week, as the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates low amid weak U.S. April jobs report.
  • Cocoa prices to decline next week pressured by a widely forecast global surplus for the current 2020/2021 season
  • Sugar prices are expected to rise next week due to supply tightness in India and Brazil
  • Corn prices are expected to rise in the coming week on strong demand by China and supply shortfalls from top grower Brazil due to bad weather.


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Fixed Income and Money Market 

Money Market

System liquidity was constrained this week despite OMO maturity that happened at the beginning of the week.

 

Funding rates fell significantly at the close of the week. Open Buyback (OBB) closed at 14.75% while Overnight (O/N) rates closed at 15.25% indicating a Week-on-Week (W-o-W) decline of -45.05% for OBB and -46.36% for O/N rates.

 

Money Market Rate

 

30-Apr-21

07-May-21

% Change

OBB

27.50

14.75

-46.36%

O/N

27.75

15.25

-45.05%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research

 

Funding rates are expected to remain elevated in the coming week.

 

Treasury Bills Market

The overall trading activity for the Nigerian Treasury Bills for the most part was quiet this week.

 

At the close of the week, the average benchmark yield for T-bills was rose by +2.47% to close at 4.86% while OMO bills rose by +6.06% W-o-W to close at 8.39%. Yield for CBN's Special bills also declined by -1.66% W-o-W to close at 6.53%

 

Average Benchmark Yields

30-Apr-21

07-May-21

% Change

T. Bills (%)

4.74

4.86

+2.47%

OMO Bills (%)

7.91

8.39

+6.06%

SPEB

6.64

6.53

-1.66%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research

 

We expect the activity in the treasury bills market to remain subdued next week as system liquidity remains relatively tight.

 

FGN Bond Market

The Bond market sustained its static performance this week as market participants remain on the sidelines amid the rising interest rate coupled with the tight system liquidity.

 

At the close of the week, the market was bearish with selling interest seen majorly across the board.

 

The overall average benchmark yields closed at 9.09% for the week which increased W-o-W by +3.32%.

 

 

Average Benchmark Yields

30-Apr-21

07-May-21

% Change

Short Tenor (%)

6.19

6.36

+2.81%

Mid Tenor (%)

10.58

11.00

+3.96%

Long Tenor (%)

13.05

13.48

+3.29%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research 

 

 

Debt Management Office on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria Offered for Subscription and received applications for the FGN Savings Bond for May 2021.

 

2-Year FGN Savings Bond due May 12, 2023: 7.753% per annum

 

3-Year FGN Savings Bond due May 12, 2024: 8.753% per annum

 

Date Opened:                                  May 3, 2021

 

Date Closed:                                    May 7, 2021

 

Settlement Date:                              May 12, 2021

 

Coupon Payment Dates:                 August 12, November 12, February 12, May 12

 

FGN Eurobond Market

The Nigerian Eurobond market maintained its relatively quiet trend this week as the market continued to trade sideways. The average benchmark yield closed at 6.14% at the end of the week.

 

We expect market sentiment to remain soft in the near term in the absence of any trigger.

 

Foreign Exchange Market

On a W-o-W basis, the Naira remained flat against the dollar at the BDC window, however, against the British Pound and Euro it was bearish.

 

At the I & E FX window, the Naira was depreciated marginally by -0.08% at the end of the week.

 

It depreciated against the British Pound by -0.30% while against the Euro it depreciated by -0.69%, closing at $/N482, £/N676, and Euros/N587 at the BDC window. 


The Naira closed the week at $/N410.33 at the I&E FX window, at the NAFEX (spot market) it closed at $/N410.82.



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Nigerian Capital Market

  • The Nigerian bourse closed the week negative with a decline of -1.60%. The Nigerian Stock Exchange lost N415.88bn in Market capitalization W-o-W while YTD return and market capitalization currently stands at -2.66% and N20.43trn respectively. 
  • The volume and value of stocks traded on the exchange this week declined by -27.24% and -5.02% respectively.
  • Performance across sectors tracked was mixed this week as the NSE Oil and Gas was the highest gainer for the week with +5.98% while NSE Consumer Goods and NSE Banking advanced by +0.62% and +0.62% respectively while NSE Insurance, NSE-30, and NSE -IND closed the week negative with -2.20%, -1.94% and -1.60%.


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Chart 1: Movement of NSEASI Index Points 30 Apr. 2021 - 07 May. 2021

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Source: NSE, Proshare Research

 

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NASD OTC

 

The NASD OTC Security Index (NSI) and Market Capitalization closed the trading week with a negative movement in Market capitalization and NSI. The NSI and Market capitalization closed the week at 778.03 points and N553.03bn with a growth of -1.50% and -1.50% respectively.

 

 

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Dangote and Toni Index  

Dangote Index closed the week negative with 112.53 basis points from 114.99 basis points recorded the previous week, a decline of -2.14%.


NASCON closed flat, DANGSUGAR advanced by +3.81% while DANGCEM  dipped by -2.49% WoW resprectively. DANGSUGAR recorded the highest gain W-o-W.

 

 

Table 2: Dangote Index W-o-W Change

 

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Furthermore, the Toni Index closed negative with 89.53 basis points from 91.07 basis points recorded the previous week, a W-o-W decline of -1.69%


AFRIPRUD, TRANSCORP and UBA closed the week negative with -2.63%, -5.56% and -2.05% respectively, UBCAP closed positive WoW with +4.30% while TRANSCOHOT closed flat.


 

Table 3: Toni Index W-o-W Change


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Outlook

 

In the coming week, we expect the negative trend to spillover, however, press releases from listed companies and macroeconomic developments is likely to impact investors' decisions.

 

In addition, we expect investors to monitor the movement of yields in the fixed income market.



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Latest Reports This Past Week

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6.     Headline Inflation Increases by 18.17% YoY In March 2021, 0.82% Higher Than February 2021 Rate - NBS

7.     NBS Publishes COVID-19 Impact Monitoring Survey Report for February 2021

8.     Real Household Consumption Expenditure Growth Rate Stood at 0.18% in 2020 - NBS

9.     All Commodity Group Import Index Grew By 0.13% in Q4 2020 - NBS

10.  38.60% of Nigeria's Total Public Debt Was External in Q4 2020 - NBS


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