Saturday, January 19, 2019 08:00 AM / Proshare Content
Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 180119
Source: Vetiva Weekly Market Wrap - January 18, 2019
ASI Records First Fully Positive Week Since July 2017
• In a positive turn of events, the ASI recorded positive performances every day of this week for the first time since July 2017 leading to a 394bps gain w/w. Continuing this week’s trend, the Industrial Goods sector (+421bps d/d, +12.71% w/w) was the best performer following upticks in CCNN (+913bps d/d, +25.50% w/w), DANGCEM (+258bps d/d, +10.11% w/w) and WAPCO (+199bps d/d, +449bps w/w). Similarly, on Friday, the Consumer Goods (+203bps d/d, +272bps w/w) and Oil & Gas (+9bps d/d, +59bps w/w) sectors gained thanks to NESTLE (+349bps d/d, w/w), NB(+286bps d/d, +385bps w/w) and ETERNA (+114bps d/d, +349bps w/w) . Contrarily, the Banking (-37bps d/d, -104bps w/w) sector was the sole loser for the day and week when gains in UBN (+976bps d/d, 12.50% w/w) and ETI (+145bps d/d, +370bps w/w) were cancelled by losses in UBA (-267bps d/d, -68bps w/w) and GUARANTY (-139bps d/d, -463bps w/w).
• With positive investor sentiment returning to the market this week, we are cautiously optimistic. Whilst we expect buying momentum to fizzle out on cement stocks, we foresee some buy interest in depressed Tier1 banking stocks.
• Stock Watch: DANGCEM gained 10% in four sessions this week. The stock gained 3% today to close at ?194.90 and is up 3% in 2019, underperforming the Industrial Goods sector (9% ytd).
Yields decline despite high primary market activities
• This week, the CBN sold ?575 billion (?700 billion offered) across three OMO auctions on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday at the 11.90%, 13.50% and 15.00% across three maturities. The CBN also sold ?152 billion (?225 billion offered) at its bi-weekly PMA, raising the stop rates across the three maturities from previous PMA levels to 11.00%, 13.10% and 15.00%. Meanwhile, the Interbank Call rate declined 467bps to closs at 15.33% w/w.
• Despite the mop ups and the consequently constrained system liquidity, trading in the treasury bills market was positive with yields declining 42bps w/w (-21bps d/d). Particular, the yields on the 62DTM and 132DTM bills declined 213bps and 220bps respectively to settle at 12.32% and 11.63%. Meanwhile, trading in the bond space was also positive, with yields declining 7bps w/w (+10bps d/d). Specifically, the yields on the 16.2884% FGN MAR 2027 and 12.40% 18-MAR-2036 bonds declined 34bps and 25bps respectively to close at 15.04% and 15.26% respectively.
• We expect the anticipated release of the bond calendar on Monday to spur mild sell-offs in the bond space, whilst tepid trading is expected to continue in the T-bills space due to liquidity constraints. Meanwhile, trading activities will also be directed by the Monetary Policy Committee meeting and a bond auction scheduled for midweek.
• The Naira appreciated ?2.15 w/w at the I&E FX Window to settle at ?362.79 against the dollar and appreciated ? 0.50 w/w to settle at ?360.50 in the parallel market.
• We expect the naira to remain relatively stable across the various windows of the currency space as the CBN maintains interventions in the FX market.
Monday, January 21, 2019
The Central Bank of Nigeria will on this day hold the 265th Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at MPC Meeting Room, 11th Floor, Wing C, CBN Corporate Headquarters, Abuja.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The NESG will on this day hold the UK-Nigeria Climate Finance Accelerator Workshop at No. 3, Idejo Street, Opposite ICON House, Off Adeola Odeku Street, and Victoria Island while the 8th NIMASA/NIALS Strategic Admiralty Law Seminar for Judges will hold same day at the Radisson Blu, Victoria Island, Lagos.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
The Climate Finance Accelerator will on this day continue the UK-Nigeria Climate Finance Accelerator Workshop at No. 3, Idejo Street, Opposite ICON House, Off Adeola Odeku Street, Victoria Island while West African International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference will hold same at Eko Hotels and Suites, Lagos
Thursday, January 24, 2019
The Nigeria-British Chamber of Commerce will on this day hold the 2019 Economic Outlook at the Function Room 1, Lagos Oriental Hotel Lekki-Epe Expressway, Lagos; while Smart Entrepreneur Nigeria will on this day hold the Smart Enterprise Session at Light House Cinemas, 91 Murtala Muhammed Way Lagos
The Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria will on this day hold the CITN Federal Government of Nigeria 2019 Budget Seminar at CITN Multi-purpose Hall Tax Professionals House, plot 16, Otunba Jobi Fele way, Central Business District, Alausa-Ikeja, Lagos while the International Produced Water Conference and Exhibition Africa will hold same day at the Oriental Hotel, Lagos, Nigeria
Friday, January 25, 2019
Investment One will on this day hold its Digital Banking Launch at Radisson Blu Hotel Victoria Island Lagos.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
The iSucceed series will on this day hold the Lagos Enterprise Summit at Habour Point 4 Wilmot Point Road, Off Ahmadu Bello Way, Victoria Island, Lagos
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