Saturday, February 16, 2019 08:00 AM / Proshare Content
Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 150219
Source: Vetiva Weekly Market Wrap - February 15, 2019
Pre-election Week Ends on a Positive Note
In its fourth positive session this week, the Nigerian Bourse advanced 81bps d/d, contributing to a 3.76% gain w/w. Strong performances from the Oil & Gas (+594bps w/w) and Consumer Goods (+541bps w/w) sectors were the main drivers of the positive market performance, driven by advances in OANDO (+20.00% w/w), SEPLAT (+10.44% w/w), MOBIL (+222bps w/w), UNILEVER (+17.57% w/w), CADBURY (+15.00% w/w) NB (+641bps w/w) and NESTLE (+433bps w/w). Meanwhile, the Industrial Goods sector (+162bps w/w) was the third largest gainer despite a 104bps loss on Friday, after gains in DANGCEM (+458bps w/w) and WAPCO (+440bps w/w) outweighed a loss in CCNN (-455bps w/w) to boost the sector. Finally, the banking sector (+ 159bps w/w) saw the smallest gains after UBN (+10.40% w/w), ETI (+ 511bps w/w), UBA (+458bps w/w) and ZENITHBANK (+143bps w/w) outweighed losses in GUARANTY (-181bps w/w) and ACCESS (-75bps w/w).
• We expect to see a market rally at the start of the week driven by a return of certainty following the successful conclusion of the presidential election, barring any political unrest from the election results.
• Stock Watch: LIVESTOCK posted strong gains this week, appreciating 44% after green closes in four out of five sessions. The stock gained 9% today to close at ₦0.72, trading at its year-high price with a year-todate return of 47%.
Expect a quiet open to the week in FI market
• This week, the CBN remained active in the Primary market, conducting three OMO auctions and selling c.₦545 billion (₦740 billion offered) across the short, mid and long-dated bills at stop rates of 11.90%, 13.50% and 15.00% respectively. Notably, there was a “No sale” on Tuesday even as investors keyed in bids at same stop rates for the ₦65 billion offered. The CBN also conducted its bi-monthly T-bills PMA, offering and selling ₦153 billion across the three bills at stop rates of 10.97%, 13.40% and 14.95% respectively – lower than previous PMA auction stop rates.
• Meanwhile, in the treasury bills secondary market, yields advanced 7bps w/w, with mixed to negative sentiment prevalent in the week. Particularly, whilst the yield on the 27DTM bill advanced 94bps w/w to settle at 12.11%, the yield on the 335DTM bill declined 46bps w/w to settle at 16.66%. The bond space was similarly mixed with a bearish tilt, with yields advancing 8bps w/w on benchmark notes. Specifically, whilst the yield on the 12.50% FGN JAN 2026 bond advanced 19bps w/w to close at 14.83%, the yield on the 10.00% FGN JUL 2030 bond declined 14bps w/w to close at 14.56%.
• With a base expectation of a relatively peaceful and favourable close to the general elections, we anticipate a rally in riskier asset classes and foresee a quiet open to the week in the FI market even as investors begin to take positions ahead of the Bond auction on Wednesday.
• The Naira appreciated ₦0.08 w/w at the I&E FX Window to settle at ₦361.65 and depreciated ₦1.00 w/w to settle at ₦360.50 against the dollar in the parallel market.
Monday, February 18, 2019
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Selected Banking Sector Data, Sectorial Breakdown of Credit, epayment Channels and Staff Strenght (Q4 2018) while the Fate Foundation will on this day hold training on 2019 Aspiring Entrepreneurs Digital at Fate Foundation, Lagos Water House Corporation, Ijora.
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Road Transport Data (Q4 2018)
The United States’ NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb) will be released on this day.
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
The AAMEI’s Eco Journalism Academy 2018/9 will on this day hold the Development and Nature-Reporting the Connection at LUFASI Park, Lekki, Lagos State while the United States’ Mortgage Market Index will be released on this day.
Thursday, February 21, 2019
The National Bureau of Statistics will on this day release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Expenditure Q1 and Q2 2018
Friday, February 22, 2019
The Nigeria Stock Exchange will on this day launch the Mutual Funds Trading Platform at Stock Exchange House.
The Nigerian General Elections to elect the President and members of the National Assembly will hold on this day across the nation.
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