Sunday, June 21, 2015/ Proshare Research
Analysis of the market activity in the week ended June 19, 2015 technically revealed active pessimistic trading as risk appetite waned further while investors remained cautious, driven by sustained apathy on the back of unclear economic direction.
In a similar vein, an extensive analysis revealed increased distribution pattern as investors displayed fresh sell-down tendency, driven mainly by short-term traders while market sentiments remained bearish.
In addition, we observed sustained speculative trading pattern as investors maintained profiteering postures in the week. The fresh sell-down pattern observed in the week cut across the Big, Small and Medium capped stocks.
Also, volume analysis also revealed pessimistic and speculative tendency towards AFRIPRUD, OANDO, NEM and GUINNESS while investors displayed moderate positive sentiments towards NASCON, DANGSUGAR, FIDSON and CONOIL.
Furthermore, investors displayed fresh and growing sell activities in some active sectors, particularly in Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods and Agriculture while we observed sustained optimistic trading in Industrial Goodssector.
Summarily, the bears rule the week, depressing the key benchmark index further by 363.85 points against by 43.16 bpts loss recorded in the previous week to close at 33,257.90- ASI remains depressed and battered below its key resistance level at 41,957.50
In addition, the All Share Index traded within the range of 33,719.45 (week-high) and 33,257.90 (week-low) to settle at 33,257.90, below previous week’s low (33,462.34) by 204.44 points- This indicates falling riks appetite when compared with previous posture. The outlook reveals growing sell tendency.
In the week just ended, market breadth closed negative at 0.46x against 0.58x recorded in the previous week on the back of sustained low risk appetite.
Likely trends in the coming periods: as market lacks bargain catalyst, we expect mixed sentiments and speculative trading to persist amid low liquidity. However, we expect a sustained value investing in some key sectors like agriculture etc.
Technically, market sentiments during the week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium Cap categories in the sector(s) but with stronger positive sentiments in Industrial Goods and ICT, which further revealed the sector(s) investors patronised in the week.
On the other hand, it was observed that negative sentiments appeared stronger Oil & Gas, Services, Construction or Real Estate, Conglomerates, Financial Services, Natural Resources, Consumer Goods, Healthcare and Agriculture sector(s)
Stock Trend & Direction
We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.
THE BIG VOLUME
ACCESS experienced improved but low bargain tendency to close with mixed sentiments in the week. The stock recorded +0.30% gain in the week against -0.30% loss position recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed a continued sideways trading pattern in the last 7 weeks to record 2.01% gain, following active bargain of 46.28% experienced between January 14th and April 20th.
In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed a sustained weak bargain tendency towards the stock while it closed bearish in short term but remained neutral in mid-long term periods as revealed by its price moving averages- this indicates sustained negative sentiments towards the stock during the week.
More so, we observed a significant surge in bullish volume during the week, indicating waning sell pressure towards the stock in the week.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has low chance, with low reliability to extend uptrend in the coming session while we expect it to hold its support level at N6.00. A cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis
CCNN experienced an improved bargain postures to close with positive sentiments in the week. The stock recorded +10.7% gain in the week against +2.20% gain position recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed moderate and growing bargain tendency towards the stock in the last 2weeks with +13.18% appreciation, following 8weeks downtrend of-18.10% experienced between April 1st and June 5th 2015.
In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed growing bargain tendency towards the stock while it moved out of bearish zone to close neutral in both short term and mid-long term periods as revealed by its price moving averages- this indicates sustained presence of the bulls towards the stock during the week.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with low reliability to extend uptrend in the coming session, considering the upper breakout recorded in last session. However, its extreme overbought posture may incite short term profit-taking. A cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis
VONO experienced growing sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -13.20% loss in the week against -4.60% loss recorded in the previous week.
The outlook in the week revealed a sustained short term price correction pattern in the last 2weeks to record -25.26% loss, following the 8weeks gain of +128.24% experienced between April 13th and June 2nd 2015.
Technical indicator (MACD) revealed growing sell tendency with a corresponding steep decline in price momentum in the week while the stock closed neutral in short term but remained bullish in mid-long term periods -This indicates growing presence of the bears towards the stock.
Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with low reliability, to extend the downtrend in the coming sessions, considering the growing sell tendency and lower breakout of 1.3% recorded in the last session. A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume Analysis
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Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for your guidance purpose only.